UFC 125: the Best Fight Predictions Anywhere

The Ultimate Fighting Championship brings in the new year with an amazing lineup of fights on Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

A new era has begun in the lightweight division. This main event features a championship bout between the top two lightweights in the world, and it doesn't include B.J. Penn, Sean Sherk, or Jens Pulver.

Can Frankie Edgar cement his legacy by, once again, overcoming unfavorable odds? Or Will Gray Maynard's patience finally pay off as he bullies his way to his first championship?

UFC matchmaker Joe Silva has outdone himself again. This event is stacked with intriguing match-ups, and some of them aren't even on the main card.

The time has come once again for you to feast on some manly induced knowledge in preparation for the fights on Saturday. Snatch a cold beverage out the fridge and get comfortable. It's breakdown time.

As always, I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

(Originally from SportsHaze.com)

Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard

Key Victories

Frankie Edgar:  B.J. Penn, Sean Sherk, Hermes Franca, Tyson Griffin, Spencer Fisher, Jim Miller, Mark Bocek

Gray Maynard:  Frankie Edgar, Kenny Florian, Jim Miller, Nate Diaz, Roger Huerta, Dennis Siver

Forecast

The change President Obama envisioned seemed to include the UFC lightweight division.

If someone told you a year ago that Frankie Edgar would beat B.J. Penn two times in the same year and put forth his second defense against Gray Maynard, would you believe them? A new era begins in the world of MMA, and it'll all start with the lightweights on Saturday night.

In April 2008, Maynard used his superior strength and wrestling to bully Edgar en route to a unanimous decision. Both fighters have improved drastically since their first encounter. This bout shouldn't be ignored or written off as a rerun. In a five round fight, the match-up becomes more complex as two of the best in the world battle for lightweight supremacy.

We'll see if Edgar can answer the call of critics and fans with one more "I told you so."

Fighting out of Toms River, New Jersey, Edgar trains at Renzo Gracie Combat Team with Ricardo Almeida and the legendary Renzo Gracie. He is a purple belt in BJJ. At Clarion University of Pennsylvania, Edgar qualified for nationals throughout his college tenure in the Division I Wrestling program.

Along with solid grappling skills, Edgar has shown an impressive Boxing prowess. The lone loss on his MMA record came to Maynard well over two years ago. He has since rebounded with consecutive wins over former champion and pound-for-pound great B.J. Penn.

Maynard fights out of Las Vegas, Nevada. He trains at Xtreme Couture alongside various other star-studded veterans including Randy Couture, Tyson Griffin, Forrest Griffin, and Martin Kampmann. His stalwart wrestling has been the catalyst for his 11-0 record.

Maynard is a former Division I Wrestler at Michigan State University, where he was a teammate and roommate of former Light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans. At UFC 118, he took the convincing upset over top lightweight contender Kenny Florian.

Keys to Victory

As long as Edgar keeps separation, he should be able to utilize his speed and superior Boxing to pick Maynard apart in the exchanges. This is easier said than done. Maynard's persistence to get the fight to the ground and impose his suffocating top game tends to suck the life out of his opponents...and sometimes the arena.

Edgar has to keep the fight in the open and circle off whenever Maynard closes in. This will take a scrappy effort for all 25 minutes. Whether on the ground or against the cage, Edgar can't let Maynard ride out time in dominant positions. He has to find openings to scramble and string together enough offense on the feet to convince the judges.

Edgar will have to watch out for Maynard's right hand. His setups aren't very efficient, but Maynard loves to wing the overhand inside the pocket.

Hopefully, Maynard has incorporated greased pig catching in his training regimen. Edgar's ability to change angles and utilize range has baffled the best of the division. Maynard needs to setup outside shots or cut off the cage and seek out the clinch to slow this fight down. This will have to be a consistent effort. Edgar has proven his longevity in back to back five rounders with Penn.

On the feet, Maynard should use just enough offense to setup the takedown. He can't allow himself to be drawn into unnecessary exchanges with Edgar. The crowd may not like it, but a Maynard victory will require a five round effort of securing and maintaining dominant positions.

Prediction

This may not be the most high profile title fight, but it definitely presents fans with an interesting clash of styles. The key to this fight isn't whether or not Maynard can get the takedown. History has already proven that Maynard is more than capable of putting Edgar on his back. The outcome will rather be determined by Maynard's ability to control Edgar in various positions.

On paper, Maynard is Edgar's kryptonite. He is the bigger, stronger wrestler. Despite being Lightweight Champion, Edgar will likely enter this fight a significant underdog.

The problem with paper is that it can be torn, burned, and thrown away. Since losing to Maynard, Edgar has shown tremendous improvement in his ability to scramble out of dominant positions. At UFC 118, he was able to fight free after being full-mounted in the fourth round by Penn, who is constantly credited for his world class grappling.

Yes, Penn and Maynard present different styles, but this shouldn't diminish the feat.

Edgar showed glimpses of improvement before the Penn fight in his UFC 98 showdown with Sean Sherk. Sherk could've been more persistent, but Edgar was able to fight off takedowns from a strong wrestler and best the exchanges.

This will be an extremely close fight that will continue to test MMA judging. Look for Edgar to fight out of bad spots and land just enough on the feet to sway the mind of the final judge for the split decision.

Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann

Key Victories

Chris Leben:  Yoshihiro Akiyama, Patrick Cote, Jorge Santiago, Aaron Simpson, Alessio Sakara, Jorge Rivera, Mike Swick, Terry Martin, Benji Radach

Brian Stann:  Steve Cantwell

Forecast

Ready for a battle of Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robots? Fresh off two impressive wins over Yoshihiro Akiyama and Aaron Simpson, it almost seems like this fight is a step back for Chris Leben.

This is a huge opportunity for Brian Stann to make a statement against a notable opponent on a high profile card. We'll see whose head pops up first when "The Crippler" meets "The All American".

Fighting out of Oahu, Hawaii, Leben trains and coaches at Icon Fitness MMA and Ultimate Fight School. He couples his brawling style with a competent understanding of wrestling and BJJ. Still, the majority of his wins have come by knockout (13). Throughout his UFC tenure, Leben has earned multiple fight bonuses including Knockout of the Night (2) and Fight of the Night (2).

At UFC 116, he submitted Judo standout Yoshihiro Akiyama via triangle choke in the third round.

Born at Yokota Air Base in Tokyo, Japan, Stann's life has revolved around the U.S. military. He is a Marine and recipient of the Silver Star, the nation's third highest military award for combative valor. In May 2008, he left active duty in the Marine Corps to concentrate on his MMA career.

Stann trains at Jackson's MMA with world class fighters like Georges St. Pierre, Rashad Evans, Jon Jones, and Nate Marquardt. In nine wins, six have come by knockout. After dropping three of his last five bouts at light heavyweight, Stann made his middleweight debut at UFC on Versus 2, where he submitted Mike Massenzio in the third round by triangle choke.

Keys to Victory

Leben's exceptionally bad boxing defense has been both a blessing and a curse throughout his MMA career. Against mediocre talent, he can trudge forward with his hands at his side in a zombie-like stance winging haymakers. When faced against stiffer opposition, Leben's Ben Grimm-like chin fades into obscurity as his opponents stick to the outside and pick him apart in the exchanges.

While Stann doesn't possess anywhere near the striking acumen of an Anderson Silva, his power should be respected. Leben needs to be aggressive, but he also has to beware of lingering in unfavorable situations for extended periods of time. If Stann is getting the better of the exchanges, Leben needs to step outside the pocket and reset his offense.

The clinch is another area Leben can rely on in this fight. He is great at pushing opponents against the cage and peppering them with punches and foot stomps.

Stann has to avoid falling into the same trap that has claimed so many others before him. He has to stay away from open exchanges. Leben loves to drop his hands and bait opponents into bar-like brawls. Stann can't let what Leben does affect his approach to this fight. He has to maintain solid defense and keep Leben guessing on the feet.

Stann can keep Leben guessing by utilizing good range, attacking from multiple angles, and mixing takedowns into his offense. With a great mind like Greg Jackson's in your corner, you can pretty much count on the latter. Leben tends to get over-zealous in the standup, and Stann shouldn't have much trouble countering this aggression with a takedown.

Prediction

This should be a really fun fight. Look for both fighters to forfeit the majority of their energy in the first two rounds. In the final round, Stann will become another mark in Leben's KO column as he strays from his game plan and succumbs to a volley of sluggish punches.

Thiago Silva vs. Brandon Vera

Key Victories

Thiago Silva:  Keith Jardine, Houston Alexander, James Irvin

Brandon Vera:  Frank Mir, Krzysztof Soszynski, Assuerio Silva

Forecast

From October 2005 to November 2006, Brandon Vera was a major prospect in the UFC. He was consistently destroying opponents like Assuerio Silva and former UFC Heavyweight Champion Frank Mir.

The win over Mir guaranteed Vera a title shot against Tim Sylvia, but a contract dispute voided the shot and kept him sidelined for about a year. Randy Couture was offered the shot instead, and the rest is history.

Before his hiatus, Vera brandished a spotless record, finishing seven of his eight opponents. Since returning in October 2007, "The Truth" has dropped weight classes and five of his last eight fights. Unlike past Vera, the new Vera is stagnant in his standup and tentative in exchanges.

Coming off back to back losses, this is a do or die fight for Vera. We'll see if he can recapture some of his past swagger when he takes on Muay Thai specialist Thiago Silva.

Fighting out of Fort Lauderdale, Florida, Silva trains at American Top Team with Thiago Alves, Jorge Santiago, and Mike Brown. He is a black belt in BJJ, but the majority of his wins have come by knockout (11). His UFC record stands at 5-2.

At UFC 108, Silva lost a unanimous decision to former Light Heavyweight Champion Rashad Evans.

Fighting out of San Diego, California, Vera trains at Alliance MMA with fellow Team Lloyd Irvin members Dominick Cruz and Phil Davis. His style consists of Muay Thai, Boxing, Wrestling, and BJJ (brown belt). Since dropping to light heavyweight, Vera has amassed a 3-3 record. He is coming off consecutive losses to Jon Jones and Randy Couture.

Keys to Victory

Silva needs to stay in Vera's face from beginning to end. Against Evans, his flatfooted stance and hesitation had him in a two round hole heading into the final stanza. In the third round, Silva was more aggressive and came close to stopping the former champion. Since his UFC return, Vera has been a shell of his former self. He takes on more of a countering role and tends to shy away from exchanges.

Silva needs to keep the fight on the feet and punish Vera with his Boxing. He'll have to watch out for tie-ups when the distance closes. Considering Vera's pedigree in Greco-Roman Wrestling, the clinch is an area best avoided.

Facing a possible UFC release, Vera has to tuck away his fears and come out like a man possessed. He needs to stay on the outside with his striking and frustrate Silva with leg kicks. When things aren't going his way, Silva tends to become overaggressive, and his defensive wrinkles become more apparent.

Vera should be ready to counter or seek out the clinch when Silva charges forward. In the clinch, he can work Silva over with short strikes or setup takedowns. Even though he needs to take a more aggressive approach, Vera has to keep his composure to avoid making costly errors that could get him submitted or knocked out.

One of Vera's weaknesses is his inability to effectively counter when pressed upon. When Silva flurries, Vera needs to circle away from the fence to avoid getting cornered and unloaded on.

Prediction

"The Truth's" road to redemption begins here. He'll load up on the outside with leg kicks and step back in the pocket for an occasional one-two. The clinch will be Silva's primary undoing, as Vera rides out time against the cage and nabs a couple of takedowns to earn the unanimous decision.

Nate Diaz vs. Dong Hyun Kim

Key Victories

Nate Diaz:  Manvel Gamburyan, Melvin Guillard, Marcus Davis, Kurt Pellegrino, Josh Neer, Rory Markham

Dong Hyun Kim:  Matt Brown, Amir Sadollah, TJ Grant

Forecast

There aren’t many fighters out there who can alternate between weight classes like Nate Diaz. After losing a close decision to Gray Maynard, Diaz bumped up to welterweight and earned wins over Marcus Davis and Rory Markham.

“The Kid from Stockton” has expressed interest in returning to lightweight every once and while, but the welterweight division seems to be his new playground for now.

The Achilles' heel of both Diaz brothers has always been their wrestling. It’ll be interesting to see what adjustments the younger Diaz makes when he takes on undefeated grappler Dong Hyun Kim.

Fighting out of Stockton, California, Diaz is a member of Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu. His training partners include Nick Diaz, Jake Shields, and Gilbert Melendez. He is a brown belt in BJJ with six submission victories to his name.

Diaz is currently 8-3 in the UFC. At UFC 118, he took a third round submission victory over Marcus Davis in a Fight of the Night performance.

Born in Suwon, South Korea, Kim is a fourth degree black belt in Judo and a member of CMA Korea. He has as many knockouts as he has decisions (6). Even though his record is listed as spotless, Kim lost a split decision to Karo Parisyan at UFC 94, but the decision was overturned and considered a no contest when Parisyan failed his post-fight drug screening and tested positive for banned painkillers.

Minus the no contest, Kim has won four straight in the UFC. At UFC 114, he dominated Amir Sadollah for all three rounds to earn the unanimous decision.

Keys to Victory

While he won’t hold a significant height or reach advantage in this fight, Diaz is still the better striker and BJJ artist of the two lightweights. He needs to keep the fight in the open and deliver a high volume of strikes to rack up points in the exchanges. Kim will likely try to slow the fight down by seeking out the clinch or setting up trips and throws.

Diaz has to angle off when Kim forces the action to keep from getting trapped against the fence. If taken down, Diaz can’t pass on opportunities to scramble for missed sweep and submission attempts. Kim’s strong top game makes him incredibly hard to control from bottom, and Diaz doesn’t want to waste valuable time in a bad position.

With Diaz’s high volume of strikes, it would take a mathematician to sort through all the mess. Kim has to avoid overstaying his welcome on the feet and being forced on his heels. He needs to be persistent with his takedowns. On the ground, he’ll have to prioritize control over offense. Diaz is more dangerous from his back than he is on his feet.

While sifting through Diaz’s guard, Kim has to avoid making careless mistakes and losing dominant positions. Against a grappler like Diaz, a minor hiccup could bring about major consequences. 

Prediction

Whether on the ground or against the cage, Kim will stay on Diaz throughout the fight. It will be a close bout, as Diaz lands more on the feet and manages a few sweeps from his back, but Kim’s ability to control will ultimately net him the split decision and a chorus of boos.

Clay Guida vs. Takanori Gomi

Key Victories

Clay Guida:  Nate Diaz, Mac Danzig, Rafael Dos Anjos, Marcus Aurelio, Josh Thomson, Bart Palaszewski

Takanori Gomi:  Tatsuya Kawajiri, Tyson Griffin, Hayato Sakurai, Marcus Aurelio, Mitsuhiro Ishida, Jens Pulver, Charles Bennett, Duane Ludwig, Dokonjonosuke Mishima, David Baron

Forecast

At UFC on Versus 2, Takanori Gomi’s first round KO stoppage over Tyson Griffin reminded longtime fans why he was once considered the best lightweight in the world, but should this victory be credited more towards Gomi’s return to form or Griffin’s reckless offense?

A stiff challenge against a grown man with the energy of a toddler should provide all the answers when “The Fireball Kid” faces Clay Guida.

Fighting out of Albuquerque, New Mexico (Johnsburg, Illinois), Guida trains at Jackson’s MMA along with Georges St. Pierre, Rashad Evans, Shane Carwin, and Joe Stevenson. He is known for his furious pace and bottomless gas tank. Before ascending to UFC stardom, Guida was the first ever Strikeforce Lightweight Champion.

He is coming off back-to-back submission victories over Shannon Gugerty and Rafael Dos Anjos.

Gomi was born in Kanagawa, Japan. He is a former Pride Lightweight Champion and Shooto World Welterweight Champion. Training out of Kugayama Rascal and American Kickboxing Academy, Gomi’s U.S. based camp includes Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck, and Cain Velasquez. He is 3-3 in his last six fights.

Keys to Victory

Guida has to build on past mistakes. The image of a tough fighter like Griffin being folded over like a lawn chair is a bit unsettling for any fighter. Guida needs to stick with his wrestling and stay away from wild exchanges. It’s rare to find a lightweight who packs that much power on the feet, but Gomi can end anyone’s night within the blink of an eye.

As long as Guida secures takedowns, he should be alright in this fight. Gomi has decent defense from his back, but he doesn’t present much of an offensive threat.

Gomi’s success will be determined by his ability to defend takedowns and land effectively on the feet. Unless Gomi lands that big punch, this will be a tough fight for him. Guida sets a relentless pace and Gomi’s lackluster cardio could be his undoing. Patience will be key. Gomi needs to use a lot of feints and a steady jab to setup the right hand.

Even though Guida is the superior wrestler, Gomi is a better wrestler than people give him credit for. He’ll have to keep a good base and use a lot of footwork to stay upright.

Prediction

Guida will learn from Griffin’s mistakes. He’ll rack up takedowns and wear the former Pride champion down with constant offense. Carpenters all over the world will rejoice when one of their own nets a unanimous decision victory over an MMA legend.

Official Picks

Frankie Edgar By Split Decision

Chris Leben By Round 3 TKO Stoppage

Brandon Vera By Unanimous Decision

Dong Hyun Kim By Split Decision

Clay Guida By Unanimous Decision