The Pan Report: A Look at UFC 125 Main Card Odds

Although the upcoming UFC gala in Las Vegas won’t afford fans many fights pitting top fighters in their respective divisions, the main card shows signs of a vintage recipe for a memorable MMA evening.

UFC matchmakers put together a very balanced card for this Jan. 1st event in Vegas.  All five main card bouts involve evenly matched opponents. A brief look at the fighters’ sheets shows each bout has the potential to turn into an outright war, where intensity rivals a strict adherence to any game plan, sometimes overwhelming it altogether. To repeat, any fight involving guys like Chris Leben, Nate Diaz, Thiago Silva or Clay Guida promises fireworks.

The first fight scheduled for the PPV broadcast pits former Pride legend Takanori Gomi (32-6-1) to one of the toughest fighters pound-per-pound in the business, Clay Guida (27-11). Odds on that light heavyweight scrap indicate most anticipate intensity to edge out skills, Guida stepping in valued at -150 over Gomi’s +120. Though not as good as Gomi’s, Guida’s wrestling should prove successful in the later rounds, chipping away at Gomi’s cardio and neutralizing his boxing very efficiently. It is very likely this scheduled three-round bout goes the distance, with Guida earning a tough UD win.

The welterweight fight opposing Nate Diaz (13-5) to Dong Hyun Kim (13-0-1-1) also holds great promise. The Korean fighter possesses good boxing and wrestling skills, as well as great judo throws. His record shows he finishes fights before their scheduled course more than half the time (six KOs, one submission).

Knowing Diaz obtains supplementary purses with amazing regularity (50 percent of his fights afford him either FOTN or SOTN awards), his boxing and jitz skills helping, the bout is expected to provide HL reel material.  Both fighters are very evenly valued for this fight, the Korean a slight favourite (-125) to Diaz (-105). Diaz fans should take advantage of these odds, affording the best odds for a good return on the main card, seeing that a victory by Diaz is very plausible.

The light-heavyweight fight between Thiago Silva (14-2) and Brandon Vera (11-5) should make for an interesting clash that will probably feature great Muay Thai skills from both opponents. Both have similar pedigrees (BJJ, Muay Thai, boxing), but Vera is the more technical striker of the two on his feet. Silva has very heavy hands, so it can be expected that Vera will attempt to keep him out of range using leg kicks and choose his shots when Silva closes in. Both have good clinch games, so it is likely knees might be a determining factor. Should the fight to go to the ground, both are very skillful at neutralizing their opponent. Odds favour Silva’s power (-160) over Vera (+130), rightfully so.

The lead-up fight to the main event will pit Chris Leben (25-6) against Brian Stann (9-3). To state that both middleweight fighters have a preference for a stand-up affair is safe. So is wagering on the intensity that will be put on display. If the bout goes into the later rounds, Stann’s cardio might help him clinch a UD win, as KO’ing Leben constitutes a feat left to the few (A. Silva) and subbing him appears possible to those more skilled than Stann. Odds for this bout favour Leben (-180) over Stann (+150), mostly reflecting the fact that Stann has never faced an opponent with heavy hands and an iron jaw before. Short or long, this fight is a real contender for the night’s Fight of the Night purse.

The main event will oppose the UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (13-1) to the current No. 1 contender in the division, Gray Maynard (10-0-1). This will constitute Edgar’s first title defense not involving B.J. Penn (!). Odds favour Maynard (-140), who provided Edgar (+110) with his only loss. Both are superbly conditioned athletes who have earned their LW division status the hard way. Peering into the future is always a dangerous endeavour, but odds for this bout seem to accurately reflect Maynard’s ground advantage and Edgar’s slight boxing edge over Maynard. The bout might not provide the fireworks seen in fights leading to the main event, but it should yield a technical match likely lasting five rounds, capped by a decision favouring Maynard.

Lines by Betus.com

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