NFL Week 16 Predictions: Chicago Bears v. the New York Jets Preview

The 10-4 Chicago Bears—winners of the NFC North—will take on the 10-4 New York Jets this Sunday at Soldier Field. 

The Bears are coming off of a big 40-14 win over the Minnesota Vikings, while the Jets defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 22-17.  The Bears are trying to get the number two seed in the NFC playoffs, while the Jets are fighting hard just to make the playoffs.

That should make for an interesting game.

The Bears can’t sit down and let prime playoff positing pass them by, so look for them to play hard in this game and their next (against the Packers).  The Jets will be playing hard as well, but the Bears can beat them and continue their drive towards the second seed in the NFC.

So just how can the Bears beat the Jets?  Let’s find out in this extended preview of the Bears v. the Jets coming up on Sunday at Soldier Field.

When the Bears have the Ball

The Bears have managed to make a living on offense by running a balanced attack that includes just enough passing and just enough running to make things work.  Chicago isn’t putting up a lot of big numbers in any one area but they are doing things effectively and keeping defenses off balance.  Their success in using both aspects of their offense has helped them win games.

When it comes to the passing game, quarterback Jay Cutler is making better decisions with the football now and isn’t making nearly the same number of mistakes that he did in 2009.  He had a rough start to the season (although he was putting up more yards per game earlier than he is now) but after the bye week, the offense was simplified and made much more adaptable to Cutler’s style.  Ever since then, it has worked well.

The Bears are averaging 192 yards of passing per game while the Jet’s defense is giving up 205 yards through the air per game.  This makes this match-up pretty even and if the Bears can establish the passing game and not let Cutler get sacked too many times then they shouldn’t have too much of a problem winning this game through the air.

Speaking of sacks, the Bears have allowed a league record 48 sacks so far this season.  The Jets defense has generated 35 sacks so the Bear’s offensive line needs to be ready to keep Cutler protected.  They have been protecting him well at times but at other times they are letting him get chased down and sacked or blindsided.  These sacks do come in streaks (see their game against the Eagles) as it seems as if they forget their protections for a while and let the defense pour through.

The Bears can’t afford to do this.

So the rule of the day on Sunday, at least in the passing game, is for the Bears to hit those quick short passes and let their receivers (like Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox) do something with the ball after the catch.  This can help set up longer pass plays (like the one that Cutler pitched to Knox on Monday night against the Vikings that went for 67 yards).  This can help them move the ball down the field effectively and keep the Jets' defense off balance.

No preview of this game would be complete without discussing the Jet’s secondary, in particular All-World cornerback Darrelle Revis.  Revis is a top of the line cornerback and teams do not throw his way.  He usually covers the opponent’s best receiver so you can be assured that he will be locking down Knox to start and then he could be centered on Bennett or even Devin Hester depending on who Chicago decides to throw the ball to more. 

He will make things tough on Cutler and the Bears offense in this game.

In looking at Chicago’s rushing attack, they have been getting consistent production out of Matt Forte almost the entire season.  Forte has been running the ball much better than he did last season because he is healthy.  He is running with more determination and he’s giving opposing defenses fits at times with his ability to catch the ball and turn a short screen pass into a long gain.

Overall, Chicago is averaging 99 yards per game on the ground and most of that is coming from Forte.  His backup, Chester Taylor, has been inserted on a couple of series per game, mostly to spell Forte and give him a rest.  Taylor has not been doing well in relief (averaging a half a yard per carry over the last few games) but he is at an unfair disadvantage when he comes into the game.  Teams know that when he shows up in the backfield, the Bears are probably going to run.

The Jet’s are allowing opponents an average of 92 yards of rushing per game this season so the Bears might have a little bit of difficulty running against their defense.  Look for Chicago to try to do some running early and if that doesn’t work, then look for them to try those short passes in the seams.  If their rushing attack does end up working that will help them set up play action which can give them an edge.

When the Jets have the Ball

Going into this game, it is know that Jet’s quarterback Mark Sanchez has a shoulder injury that should, and will, limit his effectiveness passing the ball on Sunday.  So, you can expect the Jets to use their powerful rushing attack to help try to move the ball and beat the Bears. 

This rushing attack is led by running backs Shonn Greene and the aged but still effective LaDanlian Tomlinson (at the time of this writing Tomlinson was missing practice because of a non-injury issue.  His status for the game will be discussed in the injury update section of this preview).

The Jets are getting a whopping 141 yards per game on the ground and so the Bear’s defense will really have its hands full trying to stop the Jets potent rushing attack Sunday.  The Bears defense has allowed opponents an average 89 yards per game on the ground.  Something is going to give on Sunday, let’s just hope that it’s not the Bear’s defense.

So what will the Bears have to do to stop the Jet’s powerful rushing attack?  First, if Tomlinson doesn’t end up playing or is limited, that will help sap some of the strength from New York’s rushing game.  That would be a good thing for the Bears but if that doesn’t happen they need to stick with what has worked for them in the past.

What was that?  It’s the ability of the linebackers and the defensive line to play well against the run.  Every single member of that front four and their backups are very good at playing against the run so look for the Bears to play hard and try to keep the Jet’s running backs from running all over them this Sunday.

You can expect to see the Bears linebackers to play closer to the line of scrimmage to help stop the run and since the Jets probably won’t have an effective passing offense in this game then that should work well.  Let’s just hope that the Bears defenders are up to the task and that they are able to stop the Jet’s rushing attack.

When it comes to passing the ball, the Jets are averaging around 204 yards per game through the air which is nice when coupled with their big time rushing attack.  Sanchez has been doing a nice job as a game managing type quarterback but when asked to win games on his own, he has struggled.

The Bears are allowing teams an average of 221 yards per game so things are about even there.  Chicago has sacked opposing quarterbacks 32 times while the Jets have allowed their quarterbacks to be sacked 27 times.

It would be wise for the Bears to try to put as much pressure on Sanchez because the more you pressure him, the more ineffective he becomes.  Look for the Bears to try to get max pressure from guys like Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije.  They may even choose to blitz a linebacker on occasion.

The Jets don’t have a spectacular group of wide receivers but they have a couple of guys who are effective and help provide Sanchez some nice targets to throw the ball to.  Those two guys are Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes.  Sanchez has leaned on these two guys, along with tight end Dustin Keller, and will continue to do so in this game.  The Bears need to pay attention to these guys and shut them down.

The secondary played a nice game against the Vikings on Monday night and should continue to have success against the Jets.  As long as that front four get’s pass pressure on Sanchez, the secondary should have a decent time covering the Jet’s wide receivers. 

Special Teams

No talk about special teams would be complete without mentioning Devin Hester.  Hester has the ability to change games at the drop of a hat and it’s doubtful that the Jets are going to kick the ball to him in this game. 

On kickoffs, the Bears have Danieal Manning and he’s very effective at running back kicks so there shouldn’t be any drop off there.  For punts, you can bet that the Jet’s punter will be booting the ball out of bounds before he let’s Hester get his hands on it.

Chicago’s coverage teams have been struggling as of late so hopefully they will be able to pick it up against the Jets and not allow long returns which give them good field position.  One slip in coverage could cost the Bears the game.

Injury Update

The Bears and the Jets list the following players on their injury report as of Thursday:

New York Jets

RB-Tony Richardson-Non Injury Related-Probable;

S-James Ihedigbo-Knee-Doubtful;

WR-Santonio Holmes-Toe-Questionable;

S-Eric Smith-Concussion-Doubtful;

RB-LaDanlian Tomlinson-Non Injury Related-Questionable;

CB-Antonio Cromartie-Groin-Probable;

OT-Damien Woody-Knee-Doubtful;

WR-Brad Smith-Hand-Probable;

CB-Drew Coleman-Groin-Probable;

CB-Darrelle Revis-Hamstring-Questionable;

C-Nick Mangold-Shoulder-Probable;

DE-Trevor Price-Hip-Questionable;

QB-Mark Sanchez-Shoulder-Probable.

Chicago Bears

LB-Pisa Tinoisamoa-Knee-Probable;

WR-Earl Bennett-Ankle-Questionable;

LB-Lance Briggs-Shoulder-Questionable;

CB-Charles Tillman-Knee-Probable;

CB-Zackary Bowman-Foot-Probable;

S-Craig Steltz-Ankle-Probable;

S-Major Wright-Ankle-Probable;

CB-Corey Graham-Calf-Probable

The Jets have a long injury report but it looks like all of their key players (like Tomlinson, Revis and Sanchez) will be playing in this game.

The Bears quietly walked away from their game against the Vikings with a bevy of smaller injuries.  It looks like Tinoisamoa will end up playing in this game as will the rest of the walking wounded but there is a chance the Bears could rest Briggs and try to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

Analysis

This is a big game for the Jets who are fighting for their playoff lives while the Bears don’t have as much to play for even though it would be great if they could get that number two seed in the NFC playoffs and have the bye and the home game.

The Jets bring a pretty powerful rushing attack to Chicago, one like they haven’t seen from any other team all season (except for perhaps the Giants) so they need to be geared to stop the run first.  Stopping the run has been fairly simple for the Bears in the past but things happen and that could change in this game.

If the Bears can stop the Jets running game and force Sanchez to pass the ball more this should play right into their hands.  The front four would be able to tee off without having to worry so much about the run and get good pressure on Sanchez.  This will force him to make mistakes which the Bears can take advantage of.

On offense, the Bears need to be sure that they don’t allow Cutler to get beaten up to much by the Jet’s defense.  He has to be healthy for the playoffs so hopefully the offensive line will heed this and provide him better protection than they have at times.

Starting out with the running game would be a good idea in this game.  Chicago should take some of the heat off of the passing game right away and show the Jets that they are willing to run the ball.  That helps create opportunities for play action passes which can be a huge advantage for the Bears.

When they do have to pass those short passes that they have liked to throw in the past could really help and can help take some of the heat off of Cutler.  Success there can open up longer passes and the Bears can move the ball down the field quicker and score.

There is some concern just how much success they will have against the Jet’s secondary but those shorter passes should neutralize some of the threat that they get from that position.

Special teams are always important but if the Jets don’t kick to Hester then not only will they have taken him out of the game but they will also provide the Bears with good field position.  Hester is quite a threat and the league has managed to realize that again.

Since it is December, we should talk a little bit about the weather and the field conditions.  Right now, snow is expected for game time with temperatures in the upper 20’s.  The Bears were not affected by similar weather on Monday night so there should be no effect on them again on Sunday.  

The Jets play in similar conditions as well so the weather shouldn’t affect the way that they operate either.

Prediction

The unfortunate thing for the Bears is that the Jets will come into this game wanting it more and the team that wants it more usually has a better chance of winning the game. 

The Bears need to want to win this game and they do have some motivation to want to win it.  If they can shut down the Jets rushing game and force Sanchez to win then the Bears will win this game.  If they allow Greene and Tomlinson to run all over their defense, they will be heading into their next game against Green Bay with a loss.

Chicago 24 New York Jets 17