2010 Bowl Matchups: Shocks, Locks and Surefire Upsets For All Bowls
Bowl season is well underway and college football fans are in their element. This is the time of year where some teams play for a championship, while others play for pride. There's sure to be excitement, blowouts, and even an upset or two along the way. For the next week everyone will be glued to the television to watch these exciting bowl games. In the spirit of prognosticating, here are locks, shocks and surefire upsets still to come in the college bowl season.
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia: San Diego State Vs. Navy
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Why San Diego Should Win:
Because they play a 3-3-5 defense that does very well at defending Navy's signature triple option.
Why Navy Should Win:
Ricky Dobbs. Of all the quarterbacks that have run the triple option, no one is better. He's got such an accurate long ball that all it takes is one second of hesitation from the Aztecs and it's six points for Navy.
Prediction:
San Diego State wins this one and it's not close. They've seen the triple option before and they aren't going to be fooled. As long as they play disciplined football they'll run away with this game.
Sheraton Bowl: Hawaii Vs. Tulsa
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Why Hawaii Should Win:
Plain and simple: they have better personnel. They have solid skill position players, including their quarterback Bryant Moniz. If they play up to their potential they will cruise in this one.
Why Tulsa Should Win:
They can run the ball. Alex Singleton is a beast of a runner and if he's off and running early, Tulsa will control the clock. Don't count on it though.
Prediction:
Remembering that this is a home game for Hawaii, they will roll Tulsa. Expect this game to be boring by the middle of the third quarter.
Little Caesars Bowl: Toledo Vs. Florida International
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Why Toledo Should Win:
They have Austin Dantin back. The starting QB is coming back from a separated shoulder, but is expected to go. This is good news for the Rockets because Dantin has great vision and a good understanding of the offense.
Why Florida International Should Win:
Dantin again. The quarterback hasn't seen game action since the separation, so he might have more rust than usual. Dantin could be brittle. If they have to bring in a backup for this game, you can bet that the edge goes to FIU.
Prediction:
For the straight up win you'd be best betting on Toledo. If you are looking for the spread, you might wanna take the points for FIU. It's all going to rest on Dantin's health, and if you are a Toledo fan you should be concerned.
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AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl: Georgia Tech Vs. Air Force
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Why Air Force Should Win:
They are one of the most skilled option teams. If GT gets fooled on the option, Asher Clark, the teams running back, is likely to hit pay dirt. They run the option well and Georgia Tech has had trouble stopping the run all year.
Why Georgia Tech Should Win:
Josh Nesbitt is questionable for the game. Assuming he plays he'll be a big boost for the Yellow Jackets. However, if he doesn't it could be a long night.
Prediction:
Air Force is only a 2.5 favorite in this game, but it should be bigger. The Jackets can't stop the run and their quarterback is iffy to play. Air Force should handle them with no problem.
Champs Sports Bowl: N.C State Vs. West Virginia
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Why N.C State Should Win:
Because of what West Virginia lacks. N.C State can stop West Virginia's running game, and the Mountaineers QB Geno Smith isn't as good as people would like him to be.
Why West Virginia Should Win:
Because of what N.C State lacks. Russell Wilson is a better quarterback this year, but he's capable of making bad decisions. If he gets flustered he could start throwing picks, and teams who turn the ball over don't win bowl games.
Prediction:
N.C State wins in an upset. Geno Smith won't be enough for the Mountaineers to win this game. It should be close, but N.C State comes away with this.
Insight Bowl: Missouri Vs. Iowa
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Why Missouri Should Win:
Because they have Blaine Gabbert. This is his last bowl game and he's playing for a draft pick. He knows that the better he shows up in this game the better it is for his stock.
Why Iowa Should Win:
If Iowa had their leading rusher, Adam Robinson, then they might be able to control the clock. They don't and so they'll need big play from back up Marcus Coker if they hope to take down Missouri.
Prediction:
Missouri. With Robinson out this game has been gift wrapped for Blaine Gabbert. Look for him to exploit match-ups in single coverage and torch the Iowa defense.
Military Bowl: Maryland Vs. East Carolina
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Why Maryland Should Win:
East Carolina will want to air this out, but Maryland has a top notch secondary and they should be able to handle the attack. Combine that with good pressure on the quarterback and it should be tough for East Carolina to put points on the board.
Why East Carolina Should Win:
Maryland, while solid defensively, lack the offensive punch needed to make them a true powerhouse. They may struggle to score points, so if they can win, don't bet on them to do it in a shootout.
Prediction:
East Carolina wins this in a close game. They won't score much, but they'll score just enough.
Texas Bowl: Illinois Vs. Baylor
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Why Illinois Should Win:
They have a big backfield. All three of their boys in the backfield top 230 pounds. They love to run the ball and they do it well.
Why Baylor Should Win:
They have a mobile quarterback. Griffin can move in and out of the pocket. Illinois struggled against Michigan earlier in the year for the same reason.
Prediction:
Illinois. While Griffin will give Illinois problems with his feet, expect the running game of Illinois to be too strong for Baylor to handle.
Valero Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State Vs. Arizona
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Why Oklahoma State Should Win:
Too many receivers. If you've ever watched the Cowboys play you know that they line up three, four and five receiver sets routinely. Couple this with Kendall Hunter on the ground and you have the makings of a nasty offense.
Why Arizona Should Win:
They have a heavy motion offense. This will make it tough for Oklahoma State to get a handle of what they are running.
Prediction:
The Cowboys win this easy. There is just too much offense for Arizona to handle.
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces: Army Vs. SMU
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Why Army Should Win:
They run the ball well. They have the ninth ranked rushing offense in football. They'll make things difficult for SMU.
Why SMU Should Win:
Line. Their running back has over 1300 yards this season. He'll be tough to contain in the run-and-shoot offense that SMU has.
Prediction:
Too much SMU. Expect for Line to have a big day, and SMU to walk away with a bowl victory.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas State Vs. Syracuse
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Why Kansas State Should Win:
A good offensive line. They have left holes for Daniel Thomas all season and 'Cuse will need to be extra good on their defensive line.
Why Syracuse Should Win:
Because Kansas State has trouble stopping teams. They can't seem to contain the run and it's burned them all season.
Prediction:
Syracuse wins. Neither one of these teams will scare anyone, but the Orangemen have a solid defense, and Kansas State doesn't. That will make the difference.
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: North Carolina Vs. Tennessee
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Why North Carolina Should Win:
They have the edge at QB. T.J Yates spreads the ball around and gets the most out of his receivers.
Why Tennessee Should Win:
They have the edge defensively. North Carolina will be missing their starting right guard and their top two running backs. The sharks on the Vols defense can smell the blood in the water.
Prediction:
If the Carolina offense were 100% you'd have to pick them. But injuries will hurt them and exploit them to a solid Tennessee defense. It should be close, but give Tennessee the edge.
Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: Washington Vs. Nebraska
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Why Washington Should Win:
They have seen Nebraska before. They lost, but this time they'll know better. Jake Locker lost a lot of his Heisman hopes after this loss. Now he has something to prove.
Why Nebraska Should Win:
They killed Jake Locker the last time they played. Washington hasn't got better.
Prediction:
Nebraska has the blueprint to beat Locker and Washington. They'll have no trouble doing it again.
Meineke Car Care Bowl: South Floria Vs. Clemson
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Why South Florida Should Win:
B. J Daniels is back. South Florida doesn't have much of a chance, but Daniels has been good in the red zone this season and it's likely he can put some points up if they get inside the 20.
Why Clemson Should Win:
Too much defense. Their front seven is nasty and they do a great job of shutting down the run. Once you take away South Florida's ability to run they become a one-dimensional mess.
Prediction:
Clemson takes this one and does it without doubt. Their defense will be too much for an unimpressive South Florida offense.
Hyundai Sun Bowl: Miami Vs. Notre Dame
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Why Miami Should Win:
Speed. Miami is a fast team that can outrun a pretty average Notre Dame team. Their wide out, Hankerson, has amassed 1,000 yards this year and will give the Notre Dame secondary all they can handle.
Why Notre Dame Should Win:
Brian Kelly. While the record hasn't shown it, he's proving why he's turned around so many programs. He knows how to coach football. With Michael Floyd on the outside to challenge Miami's secondary it should open up things for Wood in the backfield.
Prediction:
While this one could go either way, Notre Dame should win this. The teams are pretty evenly matched, but ND wins the coaching match-up and that will be the difference.
Autozone Liberty Bowl: UCF Vs. Georgia
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Why UCF Should Win: They pound the ball on the ground. They have won most of their games that way and they'll look to control the clock against Florida.
Why Georgia Should Win:
Don't let their average record fool you. These guys played in a much tougher conference than UCF has. They have a tough defense and have been successful at stopping the run.
Prediction:
Georgia wins this in a blow out. UCF has a good record but they have no signature wins. Look for Georgia to exploit them.
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Florida State Vs. South Carolina
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Why Florida State Should Win:
There is no reason here. South Carolina can make mistakes and if they do that then Florida State has a chance.
Why South Carolina Should Win:
They will do two things well against Florida State: run the ball, and stop the run. Florida State will have no answer for running back Marcus Lattimore.
Prediction:
South Carolina is only a slight favorite, but look for them to take this one easy. Florida State will hang on and make it interesting for a while, but eventually South Carolina will pull away.
TicketCity Bowl: Northwestern Vs. Texas Tech
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Why Northwestern Should Win:
History. The Wildcats, who are playing in their third straight Bowl game, look to end the drought. The Wildcats haven't won a Bowl game since 1949. The law of averages says it has to happen sometime.
Why Texas Tech Should Win:
Because they are better than Northwestern, plain and simple. The Wildcats are without their star QB Dan Persa and have a weak offensive line that allows 3.3 sacks a game.
Prediction:
Texas Tech wins this one easily. The Wildcats want that monkey off their back, but Pat Fitzgerald and Co. will have to wait till next year.
Outback Bowl: Penn State Vs. Florida
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Why Penn State Should Win:
Joe Pa and his team have a balanced attack. They like to bound the ball but are also averaging 240 yards in the air. If they can control the clock, they'll beat Florida.
Why Florida Should Win:
Speed. The signature of every Urban Meyer team is their speed. He may not have quite the talent that Penn State does this season, but what they lack in talent, they make up for in speed.
Prediction:
Look for Urban Meyer to go out on top. His team is too fast and he's a better coach than Joe Pa is at this stage of the game.
Capital One Bowl: Michigan State Vs. Alabama
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Why Michigan State Should Win:
They take chances. Every since they ran the fake field goal to beat Notre Dame, Michigan State has been defined by their risky behavior. When push comes to shove they'll push the envelope more than Alabama will. In a Bowl game you need guts and Michigan State his it.
Why Alabama Should Win:
They are too much size and speed for Michigan State. You can talk all you want about their moxy, but Bama plays too big and too fast for the Spartans.
Prediction:
Alabama is the defending National Champions for a reason. Mark Ingram will run all over an undersized Michigan State defense.
Gator Bowl: Michigan Vs. Mississippi State
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Why Michigan Should Win:
They have Denard Robinson. There isn't a player on either side of the ball who can change the game the way Robinson can. If he gets room to work he'll be tough for Mississippi State to stop.
Why Mississippi State:
Thirds. They had the SEC's third best rushing attack and the SEC's third best run defense. They average over 215 yards on the ground. If they can run against Michigan, Robinson will never see the field.
Prediction:
While Mississippi State should win this game, look for Michigan in an upset. Recently, the players have rallied around Rich Rodriguez. He needs a win and they want to get him one.
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin Vs. TCU
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Why Wisconsin Should Win:
They run the ball well. Wisconsin has three backs who have amassed almost 3,000 yards on the ground. Combine that with victory margins of 26 points and you have the makings of an upset.
Why TCU Should Win:
TCU plays defense plain and simple. They have allowed an average of 89 yards a game on the ground. They are also playing with purpose. The BCS cheated them out of a chance at the National Championship Game and TCU would love to show the world how good they really are.
Prediction:
Whoever wins, it should be close. Expect TCU to barely edge the Badgers. This is a field goal game.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma Vs. Connecticut
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Why Oklahoma Should Win:
Because UConn has Zach Frazer. If they stack the box to stop Jordan Todman, Frazer isn't good enough to torch the Sooners defense.
Why Connecticut Should Win:
They have the best back on either sideline. Todman is for real and if Frazer can make a couple of good throws down field to open up the running game for Todman, Stoops will lay another Bowl Game egg.
Prediction:
Stoops hasn't shown up for Bowl games in recent years, but this year UConn is just a little over matched. The Sooners will score too much for UConn to keep up.
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech Vs. Stanford
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Why Virginia Tech Should Win:
VT creates turnovers. Their secondary has 22 picks this year and if they can get Luck flustered than can take the ball away.
Why Stanford Should Win:
Andrew Luck. This kid is an incredible talent and both he and his coach, Jim Harbaugh, are looking a top spot in the pros. They simply need this win more than VT does.
Prediction:
This game should be a battle, but Stanford should just edge them out. Luck won't up his draft stock, but he won't hurt it either.
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas Vs. Ohio State
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Why Arkansas Should Win:
They have Ryan Mallett. With the exception of Andrew Luck, there isn't a better drop back passer in the game right now. Mallett should have time with the protection of a good offensive line. Expect to see Mallett have a big day.
Why Ohio State Should Win:
They have Terrelle Pryor. Ohio State has one of the most dangerous play-makers in the game. He can pass the ball effectively and if Arkansas blitzes, he can create plays with his feet.
Prediction:
This will come down to the wire, but Ryan Mallett has more poise under pressure. Look for Arkansas to win this game.
GoDaddy.com Bowl: Miami(OH) Vs. Middle Tennessee
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Why Miami(OH) Should Win:
They run the ball well. They average over 111 yards a game. Meanwhile Middle Tennessee gives up close to 200 yards a game on the ground. If Thomas Merriweather gets off to a good start, Miami(OH) will run away with this game.
Why Middle Tennessee Should Win:
Dwight Dasher is explosive at the quarterback spot. He's passed for over 5,000 yards, and ran for 2,000 more in his college career. That type of player means that anything is possible in a big game.
Prediction:
Miami(OH) should win this game easy. Middle Tennessee can't stop their ground game and that should prove to be the difference.
Cotton Bowl: Texas A&M Vs. LSU
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Why Texas A&M Should Win:
Ryan Tannehill and Cyrus Gray make for one of the best QB/RB combos in the Big 12. Tannehill has completed 65 percent of his passes. Gray has six consecutive 100 yard games.
Why LSU Should Win:
Stevan Ridley is all the offense LSU has. While they have struggled to be consistent offensively, Ridley has scored 14 times with over 1,000 yards on the ground.
Prediction:
Texas A&M has their act together, while Les Miles and LSU can't seem to get theirs together. Les Miles will call a silly play that will ultimately cost the Tigers the game.
Compass Bowl: Pittsburgh Vs. Kentucky
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Why Pittsburgh Should Win:
Mike Hartline, Kentucky's QB and their biggest threat, won't be playing this game due to suspension. If he can't play, then Pitt should have no trouble controlling the game from the defensive side of the ball.
Why Kentucky Should Win:
Because the heart and soul of Pitt is their running game. In 2009 they had no trouble getting it to work, but in 2010 it's been inconsistent at best.
Prediction:
The loss of Hartline will be too much for Kentucky to overcome. Look for Pitt to win a competitive game.
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: Boston College Vs. Nevada
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Why Boston College Should Win:
They can stop the run. Nevada was near the top nationally in run offense, but BC allows about 80 yards a game. Their run defense could stifle a very good Nevada offense.
Why Nevada Should Win:
They can move the ball. Whether it's on the ground or through the air, Nevada can move the ball and put points on the board. If BC has to get into a shoot out with this potent offense, this game will be over quickly.
Prediction:
Boston College will play them tough, but at the end of the day Nevada has too many weapons for BC to handle. Expect Nevada to put them game out of reach early in the fourth quarter.
Tostitos BCS National Championship Game: Auburn Vs. Oregon
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Why Auburn Should Win:
Two words: Cam Newton. He's going pro next year and nothing will up his draft stock like winning a National Championship. If the game against defending national champion Alabama was any indication, Cam Newton is not scared of the big moment.
Why Oregon Should Win:
Two words: LaMichael James. Everyone seems to have forgotten about him, but he's racked up 21 TD's and 1682 yards on the ground. If Oregon can figure out a way to contain Cam Newton, the teams leading passer and rusher, they should be able to win this in a blowout.
Prediction:
Oregon. No one is taking them seriously but they have more weapons than Auburn does. If they can contain Newton at all they will win this game.
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