Manny Pacquiao: 12 Keys To His Next Fight
I walked into Champs Sporting Goods to buy some gifts for Christmas and I noticed something I’d never seen in my entire life: an entire table of boxing related items.
All of these items however, were a part of the Manny Pacquiao line of goods from Nike. There were about ten different shirts and he even had his own shoes, which I’d never seen before.
I picked up one of the shirts and it read: “The Greatest Pound For Pound Fighter Of All Time.” Whether you agree or disagree with that sentiment, Nike is certainly putting up a pound-for-pound performance in marketing. To see this type of display with these awesome looking shirts in the heart of Oklahoma City isn’t something you normally see for any boxer.
As we look forward to Pacquiao’s next fight, consider how Manny has transcended the sport, holding all of the negotiating power against anyone not named Floyd Mayweather Jr. He ultimately has the last word in whom he fights and that’s half the battle.
1. Who’s Next: Andre Berto?
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Berto is the strong and flashy, undefeated and untested titlist that could find himself in the Manny Pacquiao sweepstakes.
He is everything that Pacquiao hasn’t fought in years, if ever. Berto enjoys a size advantage over the Pacman and he can match his excellent speed.
Berto doesn’t throw combinations the same way that Pacquiao does, but he has shown potential to be a lethal puncher at times, usually when he can catch opponents with punches they didn’t see coming.
A fight with Berto represents a high risk, low reward type of fight for Pacquiao in a fight in which he would be heavily favored. Berto hasn’t shown the best chin in his fights and most people believe that he would be knocked out by Pacquiao, but he’s a very live dog and not particularly well known by people unless they closely follow boxing.
It could make for a great promotion because of Berto’s highlight reel punches and greatest hits, so to speak, but I seriously doubt Pacquiao wants to fight Berto for a number of reasons.
Also, Berto has the same manager as Floyd Mayweather Jr. in Al Haymon who has a terrible relationship with Bob Arum of Top Rank. If the fight weren’t unlikely enough, that’s another hurdle that may stutter any talks about the matchup.
2. Who’s Next: Juan Manuel Marquez?
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For anyone that didn’t know about Manny Pacquiao until he fought Oscar De La Hoya, Pacquiao and Marquez fought two sensational battles that were decided by a total of one point on a single judge’s scorecard.
The first fight ended in a draw and the second fight ended in a split decision victory for Pacquiao. Marquez has been hell-bent on trying to get Pacquiao back in the ring with him. His whole career, since their second fight, has been as much about improving his legacy as it was a campaign to prove that he was a worthy opponent to fight Pacquiao again.
It almost seemed as though Marquez was trying to one-up Pacquiao’s performances so the fans would beg for a rematch between he and Pacquiao, but Marquez bit off more than he could chew when he moved up in weight to challenge Mayweather who was coming out of a two-year retirement.
Marquez was dominated from pillar to post, and it seemed like any momentum he’d gained as far as building a resume to fight Pacquiao was lost in a single night.
Marquez went back to the drawing board and rebounded with a dominant win over Juan Diaz in their rematch and knocked out Michael Katsidis in an excellent fight in November 2010.
Now that Pacquiao has a short list of notable opponents left, Marquez may finally find himself in a match with Pacquiao, however, it would require him moving back up in weight to fight him.
Would we see another replay of the fight with Mayweather or would their styles again clash to make a great fight?
My gut tells me that Marquez would simply be outgunned at the 147 lb. weight limit though he may have his moments. However, he’d at least have the weight off his chest of knowing that he earned his wish of a third match.
3. Who’s Next: Shane Mosley?
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Sometimes the easiest fight to make in boxing are the fights that people don’t really care to see.
Enter HBO’s 24/7 series. People were not excited about a Pacquiao/Margarito match-up but by the time the fight was ready to take place, people couldn’t wait.
The fight drew a great crowd even though there were fewer spectators at Cowboys Stadium than Pacquiao’s first fight with Joshua Clottey at Jerry’s world.
The fight surpassed one million pay-per-view buys and further solidified the magnitude of Pacquiao’s drawing power.
Mosley is still a name that even fans who gave up on boxing ten years ago recognize. The fight would be a large attraction and I’m sure 24/7 would do it’s part to make you believe that Mosley is a live dog in their proposed matchup.
What they might tell you in passing was that the 38-year-old Mosley was completely outclassed by Mayweather after it seemed as though Mosley might knock him out. In his next fight, he fought to a draw with Sergio Mora in a lackluster fight.
You can’t count Mosley out however, you have to consider that Mosley has been a fighter for over 30 years of his life. Let that soak in for a minute. I’m currently 28-years-old and Mosley has been a fighter for longer than I’ve been alive. The mileage on his body looks to finally be getting the best of him.
They say “The power is the last thing to go” for a fighter, and his punches had no pop after the second round with Mayweather. A fight with Pacquiao could likely be a storm on the horizon to ruin the sunset of a Hall of Fame career for Mosley.
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4. Who’s Next: Floyd Mayweather Jr.?
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The odds of this fight happening in the near future are as good as your chances of getting a seat if it were held at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Okay, I’m sorry, there’s less of a chance that it’ll take place.
I never thought that we’d see the day that we’d have a better chance of Mayweather fighting his kid’s mother, or a security guard, than taking a fight that would likely yield the largest revenue ever created by a fight.
Everything that has happened surrounding this potential matchup makes me sick. The accusations of steroid use from the Mayweather camp about Pacquiao, Olympic style blood testing, a lawsuit for defamation of character and beyond.
These two fighters will have their names associated with each other for the rest of their lives, whether they fight each other or not and there isn’t much to lose. It’s hard to fault someone too much for losing to the best fighter in the world. If either man were to lose, they’d both be able to say they lost to the best there was.
5. Speed
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Pacquiao hasn’t fought someone as fast as he is for as long as I can remember, maybe in his entire career? His speed has set him apart from his opponents since his rise to prominence.
He’s had advantages at times in power, foot speed, aggression, toughness among others, but how would he fare against someone that could match his speed and power like Andre Berto?
It’s definitely one interesting point in a possible matchup with Berto. Pacquiao would have the edge in speed against Marquez and Mosley and a significant edge at that.
Pacquiao also has fought two relatively slow opponents in Clottey and Margarito in his last two fights. Clottey has decent hand speed but only throws a couple punches at a time, and his slow, plodding footwork makes him an easy target when he’s in his defensive shell.
Margarito was slow enough that Pacquiao could counter his punches or move away relatively easy if needed. He may not have that luxury of sitting against the ropes until he feels like moving against Berto if Berto plans to try and box Pacquiao.
6. Punching Power
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If you’re a boxing fan, you’ve seen the footage of Manny Pacquiao knocking out Ricky Hatton, but that’s not a typical ending to a Pacquiao fight.
He has sneaky power. He’s knocked several fighters down and knocked out or stopped plenty of fighters that we wouldn’t have expected him to, but it’s mostly the accumulation of precision punching and combinations that hurts his opponents.
He also has rocked a number of opponents by hitting them with punches they didn’t see coming, which is likely the edge he has against the three potential opponents I named earlier.
Andre Berto is a more explosive puncher, which I’m sure people who are avid Pacquiao fans would disagree because they also think he can leap buildings in a single bound. But Berto benefits from hitting people with punches they don’t see coming, whether it be a straight right-hand followed by a right-hand uppercut or a simple 1-2 combo with blinding speed.
Mosley could represent the fighter with the biggest one punch punching power that Pacquiao has ever faced, but he’s well past his prime at this point and doesn’t have much pop on his punches anymore.
Marquez has seemingly not only maintained his power by moving up to the 135 lb. division, but his power may be better. The only opponent that has lasted 12 rounds with him was Juan Diaz in their rematch earlier this year. It remains to be seen, however, if he can make his punches count if he’s forced to fight Pacquiao at 147 lbs. Marquez never caught up with Mayweather to land a serious punch against him.
7. Experience
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Manny Pacquiao has a wealth of big fight experience and even more experience in title fights in general.
To put this into perspective, Pacquiao actually has more title fights to his credit than Andre Berto has professional fights. You could probably name how many big fights Pacquiao has had and who they were against and also probably struggle to remember five of Berto’s opponent’s names.
Is that the reason that Berto isn’t seriously being considered for a fight with Pacquiao? More than likely not. Unless you were a serious fight fan, you probably had never heard of Joshua Clottey. That doesn’t mean you’ve heard of Andre Berto but at least he’s had some publicity and he’s regularly been featured on HBO.
Shane Mosley was just one step away from being a living legend if he could’ve knocked out Mayweather in their bout. As it stands, he’s had an excellent career and surely he will end up in the Hall of Fame.
He’s had a ton of big fight experience but he’s lost his share of big fights, and when you consider that he appears to be writing the final pages of a 30-year career, you have to think that his experience may actually be a detriment.
Marquez has had a number of big fights as well, but at 38 years old, how much does he have left? Especially when you consider that he has to move up to the 147 lb limit to fight Pacquiao.
8. Weight
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Pacquiao weighed in at 144.6 lbs for his fight with Antonio Margarito, which was 5.6 lbs under the limit. He was at a significant disadvantage in this regard, but he made up for the difference with speed and precise punching.
Mosley didn’t appear to have any trouble getting down to 147 lbs considering his last fight being at 154 lbs, and he would be inactive another eight months if he were to fight Pacquiao on the proposed May 8th card. Time waits for no man and it’s definitely not on his side.
Marquez would again have to move up in weight to fight Pacquiao. He would be best served to come in well under the limit and fight at the weight he’s most comfortable, even if that’s 137 lbs or somewhere in that range. He would likely still be too small and outgunned at the weight.
Berto is a natural Welterweight, even if he is pretty thick at the weight. He could really force himself to get down to 140 lbs, but he’s comfortable there. He’s definitely the biggest threat at this weight class out of these three opponents to Pacquiao.
9. Motivation
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Like I had mentioned before, Marquez has been practically begging for close to three years for a rematch with Pacquiao. He was wearing a shirt with Pacquiao’s name on it after his last fight with Katsidis.
You get the impression that there isn’t a day that Pacquiao doesn’t cross his mind. You can get the picture of Mr. “T” as Clubber Lang in Rocky III training with passion and anger while Rocky was the celebrity. He was taking pictures and had people all around his training camp.
It’s no secret that Pacquiao is a huge star and has his distractions. While Pacquiao is posing for pictures and singing karaoke, Marquez would be killing his body to be in the best shape he could possibly be in.
Mosley always appears to be in great shape, but he definitely didn’t finish his fight looking very strong against Mayweather or Mora. He looked almost bored against Mora, and his conditioning didn’t appear to be very good. Can Pacquiao be the fighter that causes Mosley to fight like the Shane of old?
Berto has been accused of fading late in fights, and he said he’s addressing his conditioning issues. If he can’t get motivated to be in incredible shape for the biggest fight of his life, he never will.
10. Skill Set
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Berto is naturally gifted. He’s a strong kid with good power and amazing speed, but there are many flaws in his game. His defense is open and he makes a lot of mistakes that he’s gotten away with because of his level of competition.
His eyes were opened when he fought the sharpest fighter of his career against Collazo and was almost knocked down by a sharp counter punch. His biggest threat to Pacquiao is his size, speed and strength, but a lot of boxing fans think he would be outclassed by Pacquiao because of his superior skill.
Marquez is a brilliant tactician. What he may lack in speed, he makes up for with his brilliance. He throws incredible combinations but also sets traps with his footwork to set up counter punching opportunities, which have given Pacquiao a lot of trouble. His skill set is what sets him apart from the rest of potential opponents not named Mayweather.
Shane Mosley has some tools but for the most part, he tries to wind up on his punches and hit you as hard as you can. Any boxer he has faced has frustrated and/or beat him. De La Hoya is the best boxer he has beaten in his career, but even the considerably more limited Sergio Mora frustrated him at times with his movement.
11. Stamina/Conditioning
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Pacquiao is always in great shape and usually has an edge in this category, but Margarito actually had the edge in their fight in November. Pacquiao was at war with all of the distractions he has in his life and that definitely played a part in his conditioning.
Marquez is usually in the best shape of the three opponents he could likely face with Berto and Mosley both fading in fights in the past.
Since Pacquiao almost scoffed at the idea of fighting Marquez, would he really be motivated enough to show up in top form against the ultra motivated Marquez?
12. Intangibles
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What does this all mean?
Will the distractions finally be too much for Pacquiao to handle? Could Mosley turn back the clock again and shock the world like he had against Margarito? Could Berto emerge and live up to his potential? Will Marquez finally get the 2,000 pound gorilla off his back by beating Pacquiao and punch his ticket into the Hall of Fame?
Could Floyd beat the legal system and give us the fight we’ve all been waiting for?
Or will Pacquiao continue on his historic run and destroy his opponent on May 7th?
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