Red Sox Sign Dan Wheeler: Projecting Boston's 2011 Bullpen
The Red Sox have reportedly agreed to terms with free agent righty reliever Dan Wheeler on a one-year deal with an option for 2012.
The move appears to be the final one in Theo Epstein's reconstruction of the Boston bullpen that finished 12th in the AL with a 4.24 ERA. They also blew 22 saves, the second-highest number in the league.
But even with so many new faces in new places, the bullpen will still likely only carry seven arms. Who will those seven players be?
Here's a look at the favorites to make the bullpen and a preview of the pitchers battling for the final spot.
Jonathan Papelbon
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Yes, Papelbon had the worst season of his career in 2010. He went 5-7 with a career-high 3.90 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His strikeout numbers were still terrific (10.2 SO/9), but he walked more batters (3.8 BB/9) and threw four wild pitches. He also blew eight of his 45 save opportunities, for a career-worst 82 save percentage.
But he's still Papelbon, and as long as he's in a Boston uniform he'll be the Red Sox closer. He did still hold opposing hitters to a .226 batting average last season, and has 188 career saves to his name. Plus, with two other potential closers on the team with him, Papelbon may be motivated to prove that he's the one who deserves to get the ball in the ninth inning.
That's good news for the Red Sox, and bad news for the rest of baseball.
Daniel Bard
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Bard was Boston's best reliever in 2010 and manager Terry Francona will be relying on him again to be dominant.
In 73 games Bard achieved a 1.93 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and a 9.2 SO/9 ratio. He saved three games and recorded a team-leading 32 holds. Batters could do nothing against Bard's combination of an overpowering fastball and a slider with movement, batting only .197 against him.
Bard is in line to be the eight inning set-up man and will be given a shot at Boston's closer job in 2012, if not earlier.
Bobby Jenks
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The Red Sox signed the former White Sox closer to a two-year, $12 million deal. Like Papelbon, Jenks has fallen from his status as one of the elite closers in baseball.
In 2010 he posted a career-worst 4.44 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. But those numbers are a bit misleading.
Jenks' BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last season was a ridiculous .354, at least 50 points above the league average. He struck out batters at a rate of 10.4 SO/9. He kept walks down (3.1 BB/9) and kept the ball in the ballpark. If his BABIP can drop closer to his .299 career average (a strong possibility considering the great defense that will be playing behind him), then Jenks should still be able to be a dominant force out of the bullpen.
He'll share eight inning duties with Bard, making sure neither pitcher gets too worn out, and will be given a shot at Boston's closer job in 2012.
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Dan Wheeler
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Wheeler, a New England native, signed a one-year, $3 million deal with the Red Sox with another $3 million vesting option for 2012.
The 33-year-old right-handed pitcher has spent the past four seasons pitching out of the Rays bullpen and has enjoyed modest success against AL East hitters. In 2010 he sported a 3.35 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has a career 8.0 SO/9 rate, so he can still strike hitters out. He's also very durable, having made at least 70 appearances in four of the last six seasons and no less than 64 appearances since 2004.
Wheeler has a career 116 holds in 11 seasons, and opposing batters only hit .207 against him last season. He'll be Boston's primary lefty specialist (.154/.227/.436 line against left-handed batters last season) and should get consistent work in the sixth or seventh inning.
Felix Doubront
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Doubront, 23, burst onto the scene with the Red Sox in 2010 and quickly established himself as one of the few reliable relievers in the Red Sox bullpen.
In 12 games he pitched 25.0 innings and saved a couple of games. His ERA (4.32) and WHIP (1.48) were high, but so was his BABIP (.320). He pitched extremely well against lefties, giving up a .189/.225/.351 line.
He was brought up through the Red Sox minor league system as a starter, so he's fairly new to relieving. But with some more experience he could turn into a respectable left-handed set-up man.
Francona will be careful not to overuse Doubront, but he will definitely get some innings in blowouts and as a situational lefty when Wheeler is unavailable. He's also a long-term insurance policy in case one of the starters goes down.
Tim Wakefield
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By now the Red Sox know what to expect out of the 44-year-old knuckleballer.
He's not great (career 4.38 ERA), but he'll eat up innings (over 100 in 17 straight seasons) and give the team a chance to win (lifetime 193-172 record).
Wakefield's been used primarily as a starter for the Red Sox since 2003, but he does have experience as a reliever. He'll be the designated long-man/mop-up guy with the occasional chance to make a spot start. For $1.5 million you can't really ask for much more.
Final Spot
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Assuming there aren't any injuries to any of the previous names, the seventh and final bullpen spot will likely go to one of these two players.
Scott Atchison
Atchison appeared in 43 games for the Red Sox last season after not pitching in the Major Leagues since 2007. He was one of the few bright spots in the Boston bullpen and Francona visibly warmed up to Atchison after seemingly every other reliever (except Bard) struggled to get outs.
Atchison is not a strikeout pitcher (only 41 in 60 innings last year), but he has good control (2.9 BB/9) and doesn't give up too many big hits.
He's 34, so there's no reason to expect him to improve at this stage of his career. But he's a good fallback option in games where one of the main relievers is unavailable. The Red Sox have a minimal financial commitment to Atchison ($440,000 salary with a $600,000 team option for 2012), so if he struggles they won't hesitate to let him go.
Matt Albers
Albers, 27, pitched last season for the Baltimore Orioles and was reasonably good in 62 games. He had a 4.52 ERA in 75.2 innings and limited opposing hitters to a .269 batting average. He struggles with his control (career 4.2 BB/9), but he has good stuff and is not a polished product yet. He's also among the best in the AL at inducing ground balls, with a 1.33:1 ground ball to fly ball ratio (sixth in the league).
Albers is a project, but he still figures to get every chance to make the team because he would be under team control until at least 2014. If he does make the bullpen, expect him to be used much like former Red Sox reliever Julian Tavarez was several years ago. That is, to be brought in when the team needs a double play and in general mop-up duty.
Down on the Farm
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Andrew Miller
Once a highly regarded prospect, Miller has struggled against major league hitters (career 5.84 ERA in 79 games, mostly as a starter) and is in need of a fresh start. The Red Sox acquired him this offseason for fellow lefty Dustin Richardson, and hope to make Miller into a major league reliever. The talent is there but Boston pitching coach Curt Young will have to find a way to harness it. Miller, 25, will start the season in AAA Pawtucket but could be called up early in the season if he can put everything together.
Rich Hill
Hill, 30, had a brief stint in the Red Sox bullpen in the last season after being signed as a free agent. He didn't give up a run in four innings. Hill has been trying to reestablish himself as a quality major league arm after making 32 starts for the Chicago Cubs in 2007, but he's not all the way there yet. He has an impressive .216/.327/.355 career line against lefties, so the Red Sox will try to refashion him as a reliever and see what they can get.
Michael Bowden
Bowden is another once top prospect who has fallen out of favor in baseball circles. He still made 14 appearances out of the Red Sox bullpen in 2010, but was hardly any better than the other pitchers Boston was tossing out (4.70 ERA, 1.56 WHIP). He's still only 23 years old and under team control until 2016, so there could be something left. But the Red Sox have been waiting a long time to see Bowden develop into a major league pitcher, and he doesn't seem any closer now than he was three years ago.
All three of these players will likely see at least limited action in the Boston bullpen in the event of any injuries. Miller has the greatest chance of sticking, while Hill and Bowden are primarily roster depth.
Free Agents
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The Red Sox could still go out and sign another reliever to compete for a spot in the bullpen, like lefty Ron Mahay (pictured above). But they've shown a reluctance to go after any Type A free agents, and there aren't too many other enticing relievers available.
If one of the current projected Boston relievers goes down with a serious injury or a trade is made, then Theo could step in and sign a player like Brian Fuentes or Kevin Gregg. Right now, however, the price for those two seems to be out of Boston's price range.
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