NFL Picks Week 15: Which Teams Are Fighting for Their Playoff Lives?
NFL Picks Week 15 are here, and it's getting close to crunch time.
With just three weeks remaining until the end of the regular season, every game counts.
For some teams, a loss this week means they'll probably be sitting at home come playoff time.
For others, a win seals a berth in the NFL postseason.
So let's take a look at my picks for all 16 games, including my take on how we could see playoff hopes crash and burn in Week 15.
San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers
1 of 16
Why San Francisco Will Win: No matter who's playing quarterback, the 49ers seems to have gotten it going. They've won four of their last six games and have averaged 27.7 points per game over the last three weeks. That could certainly come in handy against a Chargers team that's been up-and-down at times.
Why San Diego Will Win: The Chargers are clearly the better team here, with one of the league's top offenses and defenses. San Diego just flat out packs a bigger punch on offense, with Philip Rivers targeting a slew of offensive weapons that is unmatched by most teams in the league.
The Charges will take care of business here, and they'll win out to steal a playoff berth from the Chiefs.
Prediction: Chargers 31, 49ers 20
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
2 of 16
Why Buffalo Will Win: The Bills are far from consistent, but they've also had a knack for hanging with much more talented teams. Buffalo took the Baltimore Ravens to the limit, played the New England Patriots close, lost to the Chicago Bears by three points, and probably should have beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers. They can beat Miami, which has been terrible at home all season.
Why Miami Will Win: The Bills have the league's worst run defense, which gives up about 165 yards per game. The Dolphins will be able to run wild all game long, and they also have a top-five defense that just held the New York Jets to six points.
The Dolphins will still be alive in the playoff hunt with a win, but they're not stealing a wild card berth in the AFC.
Prediction: Bills 20, Dolphins 17
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3 of 16
Why Detroit Will Win: The Lions don't have much of a running game and are hurting at quarterback, but their defense stepped up in a big way last week (even if it was against Matt Flynn). If Detroit can have another defensive performance like that and Drew Stanton can get the ball to Calvin Johnson enough times, the potential for an upset is there.
Why Tampa Bay Will Win: Tampa Bay is 8-0 against teams with winning records, so this game is made for the Buccaneers! Seriously though, the Bucs may have struggled at times, but they're just good enough on both sides of the ball to beat teams like the Lions.
The Buccaneers aren't going to be eliminated from playoff contention after this one, but they're eventually going to wind up coming up just short in the division (thanks to Atlanta and New Orleans) and the wild card (thanks to New York and Philadelphia).
Prediction: Bucs 28, Lions 17
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Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
4 of 16
Why Arizona Will Win: Who the hell was that team masquerading as the Cardinals last week? They put up 18 more points in that game than they did in their last three games before that. And if that happens again, the Panthers don't have any shot in this one.
Why Carolina Will Win: Well, don't let last week fool you—the Cardinals are still a terrible football team. So are the Panthers, but they can pull out the win in this one as long Mike Goodson and Jonathan Stewart run wild on Arizona. Just make sure Jimmy Clausen and Steve Smith don't duke it out on the sidelines.
Prediction: Panthers 24, Cardinals 21
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
5 of 16
Why New Orleans Will Win: The Saints have won six straight games, with plenty of those wins coming in impressive fashion. And now that the team has Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas back running the football, opposing defenses won't be able to play the pass every down. New Orleans is clicking right now, and the Ravens have struggled mightily in pass defense recently—see the fourth quarter of that Texans game for example.
Why Baltimore Will Win: The Saints have played poorly on the road against pass-heavy teams in recent weeks. Just watch the film for the games against Cincinnati and Dallas. If Joe Flacco and the Ravens can air it out all game, then the Ravens will get the win here.
Baltimore will make the playoffs whether they win or lose this game, but they make it a lot easier on themselves if they can take down the Saints.
Prediction: Saints 34, Ravens 27
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
6 of 16
Why Jacksonville Will Win: The Jaguars have been getting it done with the running game, the passing game or both. David Garrard has flown under the radar all season, and Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashad Jennings have combined to form the team's No. 2 rushing attack. That's bad news for the Colts, who give up 141 rushing yards per game.
Why Indianapolis Will Win: Is it just me, or can you not picture the playoffs without Peyton Manning? Yeah, the Colts are banged up big-time, but Manning finally stopped throwing interceptions last week. If he can limit his turnovers, Indianapolis is in good shape.
If the Colts lose this one though, they're out of the playoff picture and Jacksonville wins the division. As crazy as that sounds, I think the Colts' playoff chances go down the toilet on Sunday.
Prediction: Jaguars 31, Colts 24
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
7 of 16
Why Philadelphia Will Win: If they ever come out with another Speed movie, it should feature the Eagles offense. Seriously, watching Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson offense is about as entertaining as it gets. Even a good defense like the Giants have, will struggle to find a way to stop all that explosive power on offense.
Why New York Will Win: Brandon Jacobs has apparently risen from the ashes to become a one-man wrecking crew. With he and Ahmad Bradshaw running the ball and the Giants defense limiting Adrian Peterson to just 26 yards on 14 carries last week, I think it's apparent that no team wins the war in the trenches quite like the Giants do.
The winner of this game will likely go on to win the NFC East, but the loser will still snag a wild card berth.
Prediction: Giants 31, Eagles 27
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
8 of 16
Why Cleveland Will Win: Because any team that faces Carson Palmer can count on him throwing at least one pick six. For real though, it looks like the Browns will have Colt McCoy back this week, and he makes that team about ten times better than they are with Jake Delhomme. Plus, Peyton Hillis is the man, and Cincinnati ranks 24th in rushing yards allowed.
Why Cincinnati Will Win: If Delhomme does play, this game will come down to whichever quarterback sucks the least. Delhomme has looked awful, and even Palmer can outplay him because of all the weapons he has in the passing game.
Note: I'm basing my prediction on the assumption that McCoy plays.
Prediction: Browns 27, Bengals 20
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
9 of 16
Why Houston Will Win: We got a little taste of just how dangerous Houston's offense can be when Matt Schaub led the team on two 90-yard scoring drives against a pretty good Ravens defense. If the Texans offense can sustain a few lengthy TD drives like that again, they'll keep Chris Johnson—and perhaps more importantly, their defense—off the field.
Why Tennessee Will Win: Randy Moss has been essentially nonexistent since joining the Titans, but he and fellow wide receiver, Kenny Britt, could go off this week. It's no secret that the Texans can't stop the pass, and the Titans have the weapons to make this a miserable game for Houston's secondary.
Prediction: Texans 31, Titans 23
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
10 of 16
Why Washington Will Win: Washington got a big boost to its offense last week when Ryan Torain topped 175 rushing yards. The Redskins haven't had much of a running game all season, but they'll put themselves in a much better position to win football games if Torain can continue to open up that offense with more big rushing performances.
Why Dallas Will Win: If this game comes down to an extra point from Washington, I'll take Dallas! Sorry, Redskins fans. Anyway, the Cowboys have simply been a completely different team since Jason Garrett took over as head coach. They actually run the football now, which should give Jon Kitna more opportunities to expose Washington's horrific secondary.
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 20
Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams
11 of 16
Why Kansas City Will Win: If Matt Cassel plays, then it's hard to picture the Rams slowing down Kansas City's offense. When Cassel's on the field, Dwayne Bowe is nearly unstoppable, and that really opens up the running lanes for Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.
Even if the Chiefs win this game, I still think they'll be surpassed by the Chargers in the AFC West, thus missing the playoffs.
Why St. Louis Will Win: If Cassel doesn't play, the Chiefs just aren't the same team. The Rams will win this game rather easily, if that's the case. But if Cassel somehow lines up behind center, he still has a tough task against the Rams, who have one of the league's more underrated defenses and are a solid home team.
Luckily for the Rams, they play in the NFC West, and a loss here doesn't kill their playoff chances. In fact, I think the Rams will win the division even if they're below .500.
Note: This prediction is based on Cassel not playing.
Prediction: Rams 28, Chiefs 17
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks
12 of 16
Why Atlanta Will Win: The Falcons have quickly evolved into one of the league's premiere teams, with an offense that can run and throw the ball and a defense that gets by with that "bend but don't break" mentality. Plus, let's be honest—does anyone really expect Matt Ryan to be outclassed by Matt Hasselbeck? I doubt it.
Why Seattle Will Win: Other than the fact that they're playing at home, which is a tough environment for road teams to play in, I'm not too high up on the Seahawks. But it's the NFL, so I guess anything can happen.
If Seattle loses this game, which they will, they still have a shot at the playoffs. But I think they'll lose to the Rams in the season finale and have their playoff hopes crushed in the process.
Prediction: Falcons 35, Seahawks 17
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
13 of 16
Why New York Will Win: Even though the Jets offense has looked awful the last two weeks, you never know when they're going to explode with a big game. It'll be tough to run against the Steelers, but Pittsburgh does give up 233 passing yards per game. So Mark Sanchez might be able to hit Santonio Holmes on a few big plays and turn around New York's bad fortunes.
Why Pittsburgh Will Win: The Steelers have the league's No. 1 rush defense, No. 4 total defense and No. 2 scoring defense. It'll be hard for the Jets to get anything going, especially if they play anywhere close to the way they played last week.
No matter who wins this game, both of these teams will be playing in January. There's too much talent on both teams—on both sides of the ball—for them to miss the playoffs.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Jets 16
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
14 of 16
Why Denver Will Win: Denver has looked far from great for several weeks now, but the Broncos had one of the league's most feared passing attacks during the earlier part of the season. If Kyle Orton can get anything going on offense, he'll put some pressure on the Raiders offense, which relies on the running game and is built to play with a lead.
Why Oakland Will Win: The Broncos lost by 30 points to the Cardinals last week...the Cardinals! Imagine what Darren McFadden, Jason Campbell and the Raiders offense are thinking right now. They're 10th in the league in scoring and third in the league in rushing. They should run wild on Denver all game long.
The Raiders are out of the playoff hunt with a loss, but they're still mathematically alive with a win. Still, I see them finishing at 8-8 and just missing out on the AFC West's playoff bid.
Prediction: Raiders 34, Broncos 17
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
15 of 16
Why Green Bay Will Win: If Aaron Rodgers isn't behind center for Green Bay, the Packers have no shot in this one. But if he does play, he could have a big day. Despite recent success, New England's pass defense still gives up 266 passing yards (ranked 31st) and 375 total yards per game (ranked 27th).
If Green Bay loses this one, they're done. If they win, they stay just behind the loser of that Giants-Eagles games in the wild card race. In the end though, I think the Packers dug themselves in too deep of a hole to make the playoffs.
Why New England Will Win: Have you watched the Patriots play the last two weeks? They just beat the Bears and Jets by a combined score of 81-10. That's absolutely ridiculous! New England should be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Note: This prediction is based on Rodgers not playing.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Packers 10
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
16 of 16
Why Chicago Will Win: The Bears may have been beaten down last week, but they're still a good football team. Chicago's defense ranks second in rushing yards allowed and third in points allowed. If Jay Cutler can muster even a mediocre offensive performance, the defense will do the rest of the work.
The Bears should win this game and take firm control of the NFC North on the way to a playoff berth.
Why Minnesota Will Win: If Cutler turns into Mr. Interception again, then the Vikings have a shot in this one. Plus, I suppose you can't simply say that Minnesota has no chance in this game—they do if the Bears play like they did last week.
Prediction: Bears 28, Vikings 14
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