Atlanta Falcons (-8) vs. Carolina Panthers: An Insult to Atlanta

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Sunday December 12th, 2010 1:00 PM EST

Line: Atlanta -8

Overview

Every once in a great while, the best team in the NFL squares off with the worst team. This week presents such a matchup, as the 10-2 Atlanta Falcons take on the 1-11 Carolina Panthers. The Falcons haven’t lost since week six and they continue to impress as they appear ready to skip into the playoffs this season.

The Panthers, on the other hand, have only one victory this season and seem primed to lock up the top pick in the draft. But with so many apparent needs, it is unclear how they will utilize that pick. The Panthers, who made very few beneficial moves this offseason, lost Julius Peppers to free agency and DeAngelo Williams and Jon Beason are currently on IR. The Panthers have little to hope for and should consider being anything but double-digit underdogs to a team like the Falcons an accomplishment.

Keys to the Game

Wide receiver Roddy White is virtually unstoppable. He is on pace to surpass 1,500 yards receiving with 121 catches and his 1,140 yards thus far rank third in the NFL.

White is having an All-Pro caliber year and part of one of the best quarterback-wide receiver connections in the NFL today. He makes plays consistently throughout the game, but plays his best when everything is on the line. QB Matt Ryan has a tremendous amount of confidence in him and allows him the opportunity to go up and make plays.

He is facing the Panthers secondary, which has done surprisingly well this season.

The Panthers are allowing only 206 yards per game through the air, not bad for a team with just one win on the season. The Panthers allow teams to build comfortable leads by running the ball effortlessly and rarely force them to throw the ball. Once they are ahead, there is no reason for teams to air the ball out. Even so, the job Captain Munnerlyn and Richard Marshall have done is commendable.

Michael Turner is probably going to destroy Carolina by himself.

There is no such thing as a sure bet, but it is safe to say that Turner is going to have a monster day on the ground. Turner has rushed for 100 yards six times this season and looks to approach 30 carries this week as the Falcons will try to establish the running game early and often. With no Jon Beason to worry about, it is unlikely that Turner will see any sort of resistance from Carolina and should be able to follow Sam Baker to daylight.

Key Matchup

Steve Smith vs. Atlanta’s Secondary

Jonathan Stewart might have posted big days against Cleveland and Seattle, but it’s not happening this week, which puts all the pressure on Steve Smith.

For Smith to have a big day, the offensive line is going to have to hold off John Abraham and the Falcons. If Jimmy Clausen has time, he stands a chance at getting the ball down the field to Smith. Smith has struggled this season, but remains the Panthers' only real threat.

If there were ever a time for a big game, this would be it. If Smith performs, the Panthers have a shot at covering. If he doesn’t, there is no way they are going to be able to keep up with Atlanta.

Wrap-Up

I don’t understand this spread. The Panthers are miserable at home (and on the road for that matter) and the Falcons are one of, if not the, best teams in the entire NFL. This matchup is deserving of a double-digit spread. The Panthers have failed to cover a staggering nine times and now they are facing arguably the best team they have faced all season. Like I said, there is no such thing as a sure bet, but if there were, this would be it.

Free NFL Pick: Atlanta -8