NFL Picks Week 14: Who Can and Will Clinch Playoff Spots This Weekend?
NFL Picks for Week 14 concern, among other things, a few select teams who can claim a spot in the playoffs.
Indeed, it's hard to believe that there are only four weeks left in the regular season. But we can't let ourselves get caught up in our emotions. We need level heads and all the right facts and figures to make the right picks.
Some good lines this weekend, including some heavy favorites in Green Bay, Atlanta, New Orleans, and San Diego. We'll get to all those and more as we progress towards the teams that will punch their playoff ticket with a win.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
1 of 16
Line: Indianapolis by 4
Why Indianapolis Can Win: First and foremost, and I never thought I'd ever have to say this, they need Peyton Manning to get squared away. Eight touchdowns in three games is good, but 11 interceptions in that same span is very un-Peyton. The good news for the Colts is that they're catching the right opponent at the right time. Tennessee is in disarray, and have scored just six points in their last two games.
Why Tennessee Can Win: They just need to score some points. Zero points and just 162 yards against Houston, and six and 220 against Jacksonville, neither of which boast strong defenses. The Titans best chance of putting points on the board might lie in Manning's sudden tendency to turn the ball over, and they could get in on some action that has seen Colts opponents score more than 30 in each of their last three.
Prediction: The Colts may be dinged up, but the Titans are a mess. Take the Colts to win 28-17.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills
2 of 16
Line: Buffalo by 1
Why Cleveland Can Win: The key for the Browns is always whether or not Peyton Hillis is going to be able to carry the load. He should be able to do just that against the NFL's worst rush defense (Buffalo allows more than 170 rushing yards per game). Nevertheless, Cleveland's win over Miami was their first in a game in which Hillis did not find the end zone. That was thanks to the defense, which limited the Fins to 281 and forced three turnovers. With no Colt McCoy once again, they're going to need to repeat the Hillis-defense formula.
Why Buffalo Can Win: Because the Bills have just the two wins, it's getting hard to rationalize their strengths. But because they give up nearly 28 points per game, their best bet lies in putting big points on the board, as they did against Cincinnati. With no running game to speak of, that means Ryan Fitzpatrick. But he better hope the cold Buffalo weather doesn't neutralize his arm.
Prediction: The forecast is for deathly cold and snow on Sunday. On a day like that, I like a run game. Take Cleveland to win 17-13.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
3 of 16
Line: Green Bay by 7
Why Green Bay Can Win: Remember what Tom Brady did to the Lions on Thanksgiving? You know who else has a great quarterback? That's right, we're talking Aaron Rodgers. He'll be going up against a team that has lost five in a row, a streak in which they've allowed 28 points a game. Hard to see how the streak will end against Green Bay of all teams.
Why Detroit Can Win: Getting after Rodgers is a good idea, and the Lions definitely have a decent pass rush, which is of course led by Ndamukong Suh and his eight sacks. Their secondary hasn't been very good at forcing turnovers, which they're going to need against the Packers. In other words, they basically need the Pack to play poorly.
Prediction: Why would I pick Detroit? Take Green Bay to win 35-14.
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New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
4 of 16
Line: Even
Why New York Can Win: Naturally, the key to defeating the Vikings is making anybody other than Adrian Peterson beat you. Easier said than done, but certainly not impossible. And it helps that the Giants allow just 98 yards rushing per game, and have allowed just eight rushing touchdowns all season. If they stop him, it's likely going to be Tarvaris Jackson that will have to beat them. Advantage Giants.
Why Minnesota Can Win: No matter who's under center for Minnesota, they tend to turn the ball over. That didn't hurt them against a bad team like Buffalo, but it will hurt them against the Giants and their strong defense, which is allowing just 290 yards per game. The Giants are also the fifth highest scoring team in the NFL, so giving them extra chances is a bad idea.
Prediction: Take the Giants in this one. They'll win 28-21.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins
5 of 16
Line: Tampa Bay by 3
Why Tampa Bay Can Win: The Redskins have lost four of five, and their only win in that span was against a hapless Tennessee squad. They're not a good team. The Bucs are. And their best bet would be to run the ball down Washington's collective throat, as the Skins are particularly weak against the run. If they can do that and then get at least 15 completions out of Josh Freeman, they'll be fine.
Why Washington Can Win: The last two really good teams they've played have beaten them in the first half, and the game was basically over after just 30 minutes. Hence, they need to find a way to stretch a strong defense effort out over a whole game, and obviously hope that the offense can extend some drives. With no real weapons at the skill positions, that's going to take some creativity.
Prediction: Tampa Bay will win 21-13.
Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars
6 of 16
Line: Jacksonville by 5
Why Oakland Can Win: Last week in San Diego, the Raiders were faced with one of the best rush defenses in the league. They ran for 251 yards. In Jacksonville, they'll try and do the very same thing. If Jason Campbell ends the day with 20 or fewer passing attempts, you'll know the Raiders have done well.
Why Jacksonville Can Win: The Raiders are going to run the ball, and so are the Jags. Maurice Jones-Drew is on quite the roll, but keep in mind that the Raiders have been pretty good against the run lately, aside from their dreadful effort against Miami, of course. But if it comes down to Jason Campbell versus David Garrard, the Jags have the advantage.
Prediction: When the Raiders are good, they're very good. I'll take them to upset and win 23-17.
St. Louis Rams at New Orleans Saints
7 of 16
Line: New Orleans by 10
Why St. Louis Can Win: The Saints may be winners of five in a row, but they haven't exactly dominated in their last two games. Don't let their NFC West membership fool you. The Rams are pretty good. And they excel in harassing quarterbacks, as they're second in the league with 35 sacks. They need to put that to use against Drew Brees. Shut him down, and the Saints have little else on offense to beat you with.
Why New Orleans Can Win: Sam Bradford is a young quarterback, and the Saints are one of the toughest teams to pass against in the league. That means that they will have the advantage if they can find an early multi-score lead. Simple as that.
Prediction: The spread is too big. New Orleans will win 28-21. Take St. Louis.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
8 of 16
Line: San Francisco by 5
Why Seattle Can Win: It's hard to get a read on Seattle, as there's no telling what they'll do from week to week. But the general consensus here in the Bay Area is that the 49ers' have some serious issues in their secondary (ask Donald Driver). If us fans know that, then the Seahawks certainly do. So expect to see a lot of Matt Hasselbeck throws early. If he stops throwing late, things have gone well for Seattle.
Why San Francisco Can Win: They're more or less hopeless without Frank Gore, but Alex Smith is going to get another shot. It might also be his last, as he now has just four games to prove he's worth keeping. That motivation could come in handy, especially if he remembers he has Vernon Davis at his disposal.
Prediction: I see a messy game in this one. Take Seattle in a game the Niners win 15-13.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals
9 of 16
Line: Even
Why Denver Can Win: One suspects that interim coach Eric Studesville knows that the team's only real strength is Kyle Orton's arm. But because he is the former running backs coach, and because Orton was awful last week, maybe he'll give Knowshon Moreno a chance to duplicate his big numbers from last week.
Why Arizona Can Win: The Broncos still can't stop the rush, so maybe Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells are due for more carries. In fact, anything that involves the ball being somewhere other than any of their quarterbacks' hands should be a priority.
Prediction: I won't be watching this game, but I suppose I'll take the Broncos. Interim coaches have done well this year. They'll win 21-13.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
10 of 16
Line: San Diego by 7
Why Kansas City Can Win: San Diego isn't all that tough, which is especially true if you realize how the Raiders have beaten them twice. All you have to do is blitz Philip Rivers like hell, and then run the ball right at the Chargers. The Chiefs can at least do one of those things, as they still have the top-ranked rushing offense in the game. But this doesn't mean that they should playmaking chances away from Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe.
Why San Diego Can Win: The Chargers were down big very quickly against Oakland, which really doesn't have a strong offense. The Chiefs do, and San Diego must avoid helping them out with dumb turnovers (see Philip Rivers and Darren Sproles). The Chiefs can be beaten through the air, however, which is always good when Rivers is under center.
Prediction: Give me the upset. Kansas City wins 23-20.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
11 of 16
Line: Philadelphia by 4
Why Philadelphia Can Win: I'm well aware that Dallas has played much better in recent weeks, but I fear for their defense against Michael Vick and the Eagles' speed. They will definitely look to exploit a Dallas secondary that gives up over 250 pass yards per game. And they will do so as long as Michael Vick doesn't do a Peyton Manning impression.
Why Dallas Can Win: Stop Mike Vick, then let everything else fall into place. Jon Kitna's been as steady as they come since taking over, which is weird considering he is, after all, Jon Kitna. But they're only going to win this game if they can contain Vick.
Prediction: Been having a hard time picking against Philly in recent weeks, so I'm going to keep going with them. They'll win 28-23.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
12 of 16
Line: Baltimore by 3
Why Baltimore Can Win: Houston has a very good offense, but the Ravens have the defense to match it. As always, the objective will be to key in on Andre Johnson. I suspect they'll be fine with Arian Foster getting his as long as Johnson doesn't get his, although they'll probably focus on stuffing Foster as well. That's for them to figure out. Aside from that, Joe Flacco should be able to get back on track against Houston's notoriously bad secondary.
Why Houston Can Win: If you're going to beat the Ravens, it's going to be in a close game. That basically means the defense has to step up, which is a tall task considering the team in question here. Outside of their shutout against Tennessee, the Houston defense has had a tough time this year. But if the offense can eat up some clock, having a fresh defense can only help.
Prediction: Baltimore will win 24-20.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
13 of 16
Line: Atlanta by 8
Why Atlanta Will Win: Why wouldn't they win this game? But I'm obliged to say more, so I'll just say they'll win as long as Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Michael Turner are on the field.
Why Carolina Can Win: I think they'd rather lose and take another step closer to Andrew Luck, but I could be wrong. If so, they need to keep giving the ball to Jonathan Stewart, who has finally come alive with 190 yards in his last two games. Aside from that, maybe they'll get a few lucky bounces.
Prediction: Yawn. Atlanta will win 31-10, but won't clinch a playoff spot quite yet thanks to the fact that Green Bay, the football Giants, and Philadelphia all win as well.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
14 of 16
Line: New York Jets by 6
Why Miami Can Win: Whatever Miami did in Oakland didn't work against Cleveland. In other words, they didn't sustain drives and couldn't control the clock. That's when they're at their best, especially if it means a lot of rush yards. If they can somehow pull that trick off against the Jets, they'll be good.
Why New York Can Win: Basically what I just said. They need to keep their defense off the field against Miami. True of any team, to be sure, but Miami is particularly good at wearing defenses down. Aside from that, they need Mark Sanchez to shrug off his horrible Monday Night performance.
Prediction: I'll take the Jets to rebound to win, but not by six. They'll win 21-18, and clinch a playoff spot thanks to losses by San Diego and Jacksonville.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
15 of 16
Line: New England by 3
Why New England Can Win: The Jets' defense was supposed to be a tough challenge for Tom Brady. That didn't work out. The Bears also have a stout defense, and they'll be at home. I suppose that means an even tougher test for Brady. But come on. He's Brady. Moreover, I like the Pats defense against a quarterback who is just as unpredictable as Mark Sanchez. Come on down, Mr. Cutler.
Why Chicago Can Win: If they can contain Michael Vick, then they certainly stand a chance against Brady. But exactly how they're going to generate offense is tough to predict. Matt Forte is not going to get more than 15 carries, especially not if the Pats get out to an early lead. So they basically need Jay Cutler to play a great game.
Prediction: Last time New England was favored by three, they won by 42. I'll take them to win 35-21. They clinch a playoff spot.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
16 of 16
Line: Pittsburgh by 9
Why Cincinnati Can Win: The biggest thing they have going for them at this point is that the streak has to end sooner or later, doesn't it? Nine in a row is too much for a team with their kind of talent. And remember, they nearly came back on Pittsburgh in early November. The Steelers took their foot off the gas in that one, however, and won't do that again. So if Cincinnati is going to win, they need to get off to a fast start, and then hope like hell that the defense can play well against an offense that is by no means a world beater.
Why Pittsburgh Can Win: The only thing they really need to do is play their game. That means running the ball and playing defense. And Rashard Mendenhall should be able to have his way with Cincinnati's defense, which allows more than 120 rush yards per game. Honestly, they're only going to lose if they beat themselves.
Prediction: Pittsburgh will win, but it's going to be close. Take Cincinnati in a game the Steelers win 24-20. They clinch a playoff spot thanks to New England's win, and losses by Jacksonville and Miami.
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