NBA Most Improved: Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry Among Early Favorites
A quarter into the NBA season, ten players have emerged as leading candidates for the NBA's Most Improved player award. When compiling the list, I looked for players who had done more than just increased their points per game average over their last season's average, which is one reason why you will not see Michael Beasley on the list; his 21.8 points per game average, 7.0 per game more than last season, has more to do with his 5.0 extra field goal attempts and 1.6 extra free throw attempts per game than any newfound ability.
Instead, I looked for those players who made sizable leaps in a combination of standard and advanced metrics such as increasing their points per game average while shooting a better percentage from the field and taking on a bigger role in the team's offense, assisting on a much higher percentage of their teammates' field goals while at the same time maintaining or decreasing their turnover rate, or simply putting up better rebounding numbers.
Five of the ten players on the list were on the gold medal-winning 2010 FIBA World Championships USA roster, which allows you to travel down two different paths of thinking. You can either believe that being on the national team and playing with the best in the world against the best in the world made them better players or you can believe that these five players all possess above-average basketball talent and their significant improvements in their play are simply a result of a natural career progression. Personally, I subscribe to the latter notion.
For the purposes of the list, I have listed the players alphabetically and you can decide for yourself who you think is most deserving.
Shannon Brown's Three-Point Shooting Has Improved Dramatically
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Of the ten players listed here, Shannon Brown is the most likely to see a decline in his performance over the course of the season because his increase in production, an increase in his offensive rating (105 points produced per 100 possessions in 2009-10 to 122 points produced per 100 possessions in 2010-11) and PER (player efficiency rating) from 12.4 in 2009-10 to 20.5 in 2010-11 is directly tied to what is for him out-of-character great shooting.
This season, Brown is shooting 43.1 percent from the three-point line, an effective field goal percentage of 64.7 percent, the main reason his total effective field goal percentage is a sparkling 58.1 percent after 20 games.
Since 43.4% (72 of 166) of all his field goal attempts this year have been three-pointers and in all his other seasons, he has only shot 32.7 percent on three-pointers (.491 eFG%), one has to wonder how long he can keep up his current torrid pace.
Until his regression to the mean does occur, though, his incredible improvement in his three-point shooting certainly qualifies him to be mentioned among the NBA's most improved players.
Stephen Curry Is Quickly Entering Elite Guard Status
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All Stephen Curry has done in his second year in the NBA is increase his points per game average (17.5 in 2009-10 to 21.2 in 2010-11), true shooting percentage (.568 in 2009-10 to .595 in 2010-11), PER (16.3 in 2009-10 to 22.0 in 2010-11), and offensive rating (107 points produced per 100 possessions in 2009-10 to 112 points produced per 100 possessions in 2010-11) at the same time he is using up the second-highest percentage of Golden State Warriors' possessions at 26.1%. Curry is also the most valuable Warrior, accounting for an estimated 2.0 wins.
Most importantly, he is continuing to dispel any notion he is unable to play point guard at the NBA level. Everyone knew what a great shooter he was coming out of Davidson College so it is no surprise he is shooting so well now in the NBA, but there were questions about whether he could run a team's offense.
Curry will probably never be tops in the NBA at dishing out assists, but his hike in assist percentage (estimate of the percentage of teammates' field goals a player assisted on while on the floor) from 24.6 as a rookie to 28.5 as a second-year player and decline in turnover percentage (turnovers per 100 plays) from 16.5 as a rookie to 14.9 this season speak to a player who is quickly becoming a more proficient and efficient point guard.
The Monta Ellis Of Three Seasons Ago Has Returned
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On the surface, it might not look like Stephen Curry's backcourt mate, Monta Ellis, has improved that much from last season. After all, his season's average of 25.2 points per game is actually lower than last's seasons average of 25.5 points per game.
The reason for Ellis's inclusion is his vast improvement in shooting; his 2010-11's .556 true shooting percentage is a far cry from last year's true shooting percentage of .517, which is why he has been able to maintain his scoring averaging while attempting 2.0 fewer field goal attempts per game. It is also why his offensive rating has skyrocketed from 99 points produced per 100 possessions last year to this season's mark of 111 points produced per 100 possessions.
Ellis's resurgence this year also makes his 2007-08 season look like less of a fluke. Until this year, it had been his only efficient season offensively; he had gained a lot of notoriety for his scoring prowess since that season, but it was all undeserved. For the past two years, Ellis spent most of his time missing far too many of his shot attempts, actually managing to cost the Warriors -0.1 wins due to his offense despite all his points.
Ellis has already won one Most Improved Player award, after the 2006-07 season. He could very well be in line for his second one.
Eric Gordon Gives Clippers' Fans Reason to Believe
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Unlike Shannon Brown who will need almost a miracle to maintain his shooting percentage numbers, Eric Gordon should actually be expected to improve his shooting from the field, especially on three-pointers, as the season progresses. Since Gordon is already posting a .571 true shooting percentage and averaging 24.3 points per game with his three-point shooting handicap, it will be mesmerizing to see what he can do when he regresses to the mean.
This year, Gordon only has a .363 effective field goal percentage on three-pointers, which is far below his .570 effective field goal percentage on three-pointers in his first two seasons in the NBA. There is little chance Gordon will continue to shoot so poorly from long distance so this season can only get better for him.
The reason why Gordon has been able to maintain his high true shooting percentage while struggling on three-pointers is because of his increased ability to get to the free throw line. He is attempting 9.3 free throw shots per game, which is 4.5 more free throw attempts per game than last year, and converting 80.5% of them. Also, his 1.9 FGA/FTA ratio is a career-high; last year, it was only 2.6.
Gordon has also proven himself to be significantly better at putting his teammates in position to score. His 22.6 assist percentage is much better than last season's 13.8 assist percentage. He has also decreased his turnovers by 2.0 turnovers per 100 plays (13.6 to 11.6) from last year.
His improvements in those various areas have resulted in his PER rising from 14.1 to 21.4, an incredible one-year surge.
Roy Hibbert Is The Best Indiana Pacer This Season
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Roy Hibbert is one of five players on this list from the extremely productive 2008 NBA draft class that is taking over the NBA this season.
Hibbert's second-year was little different from his rookie year, but in this, his third season in the NBA, he has emerged as one of the best centers in the league. He is currently shooting the best of his career (.552 true shooting percentage) and scoring the most points per game of his career (15.5) while attempting his highest number of field goal attempts per game (12.4). His increased efficiency at the same time he is taking an increased role in the Pacers' offense indicates he is a true talent.
Scoring is not the only place in which Hibbert has elevated his game, either. He is also a rebounding at a higher rate than he did last season, both in terms of offensive rebounding percentage (9.4 to 11.2), defensive rebounding percentage (15.5 to 20.8), and total rebounding percentage (12.4 to 16.2).
His improvements in passing provide further evidence that Hibbert is becoming an efficient all-around big man. He is assisting on 6.5 percent more of his teammate's field goals than last season (13.5 to 19.0).
With better statistics in all those areas, it should come as no surprise that Hibbert's PER has also made a jump, from 16.2 to 20.8.
The Atlanta Hawks Should Run Their Offense Through Al Horford First and Foremost
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Al Horford has always been a very efficient offensive player, but this season he is truly outdoing himself. As most of the players on this list are doing, Horford is setting career bests in a number of categories: true shooting percentage (.632), points per game (16.7), assist percentage (17.5), turnover percentage (9.1), offensive rating (127 points produced per 100 possessions), defensive rating (102 points allowed per 100 possessions, PER (24.8), and win shares per 48 minutes (0.250).
Not only is Horford playing the best basketball he ever has, he is also the best player the Atlanta Hawks have and the margin is not even close. His closest competitor for that honor is Josh Smith, whose PER (20.6), offensive rating (103 points produced per 100 possessions), and win shares per 48 minutes (0.133) pale in comparison to what Horford has accomplished in 22 games.
Horford is more than just one of the NBA's most improved players. He is the only player on the Hawks roster who is actually worthy of a max contract deal.
Kevin Love Is a Rebounding Machine
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Fans of the Minnesota Timberwolves really only have one reason to tune into Timberwolves' games and his name is Kevin Love. First, there are his rebounding exploits. Love grabs 35.1 percent of all available defensive rebounds while he is on the court, which is the highest defensive rebounding percentage of any qualified player in the NBA this season. He also snags 14.2 percent of the offensive rebounds available, ranking him fourth in the NBA. Combine those two rebounding percentages and you discover Love brings down 24.2 percent of all available rebounds while on the floor, placing him as the best rebounder in the league.
Lest you think rebounding is all Love is good at, he also scores 20.0 points per game with a .564 true shooting percentage. In addition, Love produces 118 points per 100 possessions and posts a 23.8 PER. All of those statistics represent a bump over what he produced last year.
The value of Kevin Love to the Minnesota Timberwolves cannot be overstated. He has accounted for more than three times as many win shares (2.7) as the next closest Timberwolf (Luke Ridnour: 0.8 win shares).
It remains to be seen whether Love can sustain his .605 effective field goal percentage of three-pointers, but even if he cannot, it will not drop so precipitously as to affect his offensive efficiency too greatly. Either way, Love is an amazing player.
Paul Millsap Is Making Everyone In Utah Forget About Carlos Boozer
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This season, Paul Millsap is accomplishing two things. He is not only providing the Utah Jazz with tremendous value due to his career highs in points per game (17.9), true shooting percentage (.598), assist percentage (12.4), PER (21.8), offensive rating (121 points produced per 100 possessions), and win shares per 48 minutes (0.251). Millsap has also effectively replaced all of Carlos Boozer's production for a fraction of the price.
Last season, Boozer posted a 21.3 PER, .599 true shooting percentage, 112 points produced per 100 possessions, and 0.178 win shares per 48 minutes. All of those statistics are either being matched or surpassed by Millsap this year.
Over Boozer's entire Utah Jazz career, only his 2006-07 season can be said to be better than what Millsap has done this season and even that can be hotly debated. Which season you think is superior really comes down to which statistics you put more stock in. Boozer's 24.1 PER in 2006-07 best Millsap's PER this season, but Millsap has Boozer beat in offensive rating (Boozer: 112 points produced per 100 possessions) and win shares per 48 minutes (Boozer: 0.185).
What is certain is that Millsap's play warrants him being included in the discussion for the best forwards playing in the NBA today in addition to one of the most improved.
Derrick Rose Keeps Getting Better
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Derrick Rose continues to be talked about as one of the best point guards in the NBA and this season will only solidify his position among the top five point guards in the league. His .530 true shooting percentage is similar to last year's .532 true shooting percentage, but this season's shooting percentage is coming on3.5 more field goal attempts per game.
Rose has also developed more range with his jump shot, always a weakness of his, and has a very respectable .542 effective field goal percentage on three-pointers. How long that hard work keeps paying off remains to be seen as he has never shot so well from three-point distance before.
What has really made Rose a more effective point guard this season is his vastly improved assist percentage. The true test of a point guard will always be how well he sets his teammates for field goal makes and the Rose of this season with his 39.5 assist percentage is light years better at it than Rose of last season with his 30.3 assist percentage.
Rose has also seen an uptick in his defensive statistics. He has a higher steal percentage (1.5 to 1.0) and block percentage (1.2 to 0.7) compared to last season.
Russell Westbrook Is Now Kevin Durant's Equal
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Based on Russell Westbrook's play this season, he is no longer just Kevin Durant's sidekick. At the very least, Westbrook is now Durant's equal. In fact, twenty-two games into the season, Westbrook has actually been Durant's superior.
The two biggest advancements for Russell Westbrook this year have come in his ability to get to the free throw line on a consistent basis and also his increased proficiency in acquiring assists.
Westbrook is shooting better overall with a career-high .444 effective field goal percentage, but because he is both shooting free throw attempts at an extremely high rate relative to his field goal attempts, a ratio of 2.0 FGA/FTA, in addition to making 87.2 percent of them, he has almost a .100 difference between his effective field goal percentage and his true shooting percentage; his true shooting percentage stands at .542, a career-high.
Furthermore, Westbrook has become a dual-threat point guard, able to score and distribute equally well. His 44.6 assist percentage, along with being an improvement upon his last season's 38.6 assist percentage, currently ranks him fifth in the NBA.
If that information is not impressive enough for you, Westbrook's 25.2 PER, a substantial increase over his 17.8 PER of last year, is the second-highest in the NBA. Only Chris Paul's 27.0 PER can claim superiority over Westbrook.
It is also Westbrook and not Durant who has kept the Oklahoma City Thunder in contention this season. They have both used almost an equal percentage of Thunder possessions, 31.4 percent for Westbrook and 31.9 percent for Durant, but it is Westbrook who has the higher offensive rating (Westbrook: 110 points produced per 100 possessions; Durant: 108 points per 100 possessions) and win shares per 48 minutes (Westbrook: 0.159; Durant: 0.123).
The Most Improved award was made for seasons like the one Westbrook is having.
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