UFC 124 Georges St. Pierre vs. Josh Koscheck: The Full Breakdown
As it currently stands, this Saturday could be the last fight of Georges St. Pierre's welterweight career that is even remotely compelling in nature.
Sure, Jake Shields, Jon Fitch, and maybe one or two others could make worthy opponents, but Josh Koscheck's active wrestling game and even more active voice box give this one an edge that no other matchup would seem to possess.
Let's break this baby down, one category at a time.
1. Size
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First things first. Here's how they stack up in the Tale of the Tape:
Georges St. Pierre
Age: 29
Weight: 175 lbs
Height: 5' 10"
Reach: 76 inches
Josh Koscheck
Age: 33
Weight: 170 lbs
Height: 5' 10"
Reach: 73 inches
Advantage: St. Pierre
2. Wrestling
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This one is close. Koscheck was a D-1 national champion in college, but has seemed to focus lately on other aspects of his game. Still, it goes without saying that the challenger is very dangerous on the mat, where his ground-and-pound is every bit as vicious as the champ's.
As a youth in Quebec, St. Pierre didn't have access to America's scholastic wrestling infrastructure. But when he took it up, it was ducks to water, and he is now so advanced that the idea of training for the Canadian Olympic freestyle wrestling team is at least a plausible goal. In recent fights, he has taken down opponents with incredible ease. To be certain, however, that will be a much harder task against Josh Koscheck.
Yes, Koscheck took St. Pierre down in their first fight, and yes, it's a feat that (unless I am wrong) has not been duplicated since. Koscheck even took a round in that fight. Unfortunately for Kos, though, St. Pierre took him down several times, and won two rounds en route to the unanimous decision victory. Times may have changed, but both men have advanced here, not just one. That's why I see history repeating.
Advantage: St. Pierre
3. Striking
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St. Pierre has a clear edge in accuracy and technique, but Koscheck has demonstrated knockout power in his hands that GSP simply has not.
When standing up, St. Pierre has more ways to attack than Koscheck; his karate and Muay Thai make him comfortable throwing kicks, knees, and other blows that are relatively exotic compared with Koscheck's meat-and-potatoes overhand right.
St. Pierre's superior technique also means he is more accurate—but it's closer than you might think. GSP has landed 46 percent of his standup strikes, compared with 45 for Koscheck, according to UFC statistics. St. Pierre is also slightly more elusive, avoiding 71 percent of opponents' strikes versus 67 percent for Koscheck.
Koscheck tends to fall in love with that overhand, but why not dance with the horse that brung you (or something like that)? Two of Koscheck's last four wins came on the end of his fists—includng that highlight-reel brutalization of Yoshiyuki Yoshida in 2008.
He has discovered a skill set beyond wrestling, and is capable of hurting anyone he can get his hands on. The same can't be said for St. Pierre. If it was a point-karate match, this would be GSP in a land slide. It is not a point-karate match.
Advantage: Koscheck
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4. Submissions
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Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck each have three UFC wins by submission. Koscheck is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. St. Pierre is a black belt. Both have worked hard to improve this aspect of their games.
In a nutshell, neither man has a notorious submission game, but both can sink in a choke if given the chance.
Advantage: Push
5. Stamina
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Koscheck has a reputation for being in great cardiovascular shape when he enters the cage. The exhaustive process of smothering an opponent against a fence for three rounds demands it.
Notice, though, I said "three rounds." GSP has experience in rounds four and five—the "championship rounds." Kos is untested in that rarefied air.
Advantage: slight to GSP
6. Intangibles
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The Greg Jackson training camp might have a reputation for boring fighters, but it still gives GSP a great edge here. World-class strategists and top-notch training partners will do that.
GSP takes heat for being a bit of a machine sometimes. But you know what? If the worst thing somebody can say about a fighter is that he is a bit too much like a machine, you've got a pretty good fighter on your hands.
Koscheck works with the highly respected American Kickboxing Academy, but hasn't shown the same drive or attention to detail—both inside and outside the cage—as the studious St. Pierre.
Furthermore, Kos has worked hard to be the heel, but it just doesn't seem to be authentic. (A favorite catchphrase of his is "everybody loves Kos," which I always expect him to follow up with "...right?")
Last but certainly not least, this fight is happening in front of a record crowd in St. Pierre's hometown of Montreal. You might remember Koscheck bad-mouthing Montreal's hockey team while they were in the midst of a playoff run, but then refusing at first to take this fight if it happened north of the border. This is not Brock Lesnar we're dealing with here. These are not the actions of a man who relishes the boos. And he's going to hear them.
Advantage: St. Pierre
7. Final Verdict
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I realize I'm not exactly going out on a limb here, and I realize Koscheck is not to be taken lightly. But at the end of the day, this is GSP's fight to lose. I know Koscheck has become more of a complete fighter since their last meeting. Thing is, St. Pierre was already a complete fighter. He's just become a better complete fighter.
Thus, the gap hasn't really narrowed since St. Pierre-Koscheck I, and that's why part II will have a similar outcome. There's just one final curveball: when you look back at all of St. Pierre's return matches (one with B.J. Penn, two with Matt Hughes, one with Matt Serra) he has won each by stoppage.
Prediction: St. Pierre by TKO, fourth round
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