NFL Picks Week 13: Will Patriots Get Revenge on Rex Ryan and the Jets?
Time for some NFL Picks for Week 13, and we definitely have our work cut out for us this weekend.
Last week, we had a monster NFC matchup between Green Bay and Atlanta and a host of Thanksgiving games. This week, we have Mike Vick and the Eagles taking aim at the Texans, the Steelers taking on the Ravens for AFC North supremacy, and a monster AFC East matchup on Monday Night Football between the Patriots and Jets.
There's a lot of tough spreads to dig through, but we'll give you the knowledge you need in order to make a killing this weekend.
Here are picks for each of the 16 games this weekend, ordered from the games you should avoid to the surest of bets.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
1 of 16
Line: Baltimore -3
Why Pittsburgh Can Win: The key thing they were missing in their loss to Baltimore earlier this season was Ben Roethlisberger. He's banged up for this one, so the Steelers absolutely have to protect him in order to stand a chance to win. They'll have to rely on him as well, as the Ravens limited Rashard Mendenhall to just 79 yards in their first meeting.
Why Baltimore Can Win: I just hinted at it. Hit Roethlisberger early and often. He's a tough guy to take down, but the Ravens have a bunch of big tough guys who are more than capable of doing the job. Aside from that, the Ravens can be vulnerable against the pass, as we saw against New England. Extra throws for Joe Flacco, please.
Prediction: Take Baltimore to win 20-15.
15. New York Jets at New England Patriots
2 of 16
Line: New England -4
Why New York Can Win: The Jets are not going to be facing the same Patriots team that they beat 28-14 in the second game of the season. The Pats offense has drastically transformed since then, as they now spread the field better than any team. Of course, the Jets don't need me to tell them this. They won't stop Tom Brady and the Pats entirely, but they will limit them in some way. Then it's just a matter of getting the better of the Patriots' mediocre defense.
Why New England Can Win: Pittsburgh was supposed to give Tom Brady a hard time, and that didn't work. In other words, I don't think the Jets defense intimidates him at all. He will continue to spread the ball around and put points on the board, and the Pats should be able to pull away late if their defense can keep it close.
Prediction: It's going to be a great game, and it's a tough spread. I'd take the Jets in a game the Pats win 35-32.
14. Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3 of 16
Line: Atlanta -3
Why Atlanta Can Win: The Bucs will probably be focused on stopping Michael Turner, who torched them for 107 yards and two touchdowns earlier this season. That was a close game, but it doesn't look as close if you take away Michael Spurlock's nifty return touchdown. Matt Ryan hasn't thrown a pick in four games, and the Falcons should be able to outlast the Bucs if none of their players turn the ball over.
Why Tampa Bay Can Win: Josh Freeman was just 17 of 37 throwing the ball against Baltimore, and the Bucs still made it a close game. If he can complete a few extra passes against Atlanta, the game will be even closer. Bottling up Turner will be an obvious priority, but they also can't let Ryan and Roddy White beat them. In other words, they need the Falcons to have an off game.
Prediction: I'm digging an upset in this one. Take the Bucs to win 24-20.
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13. Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins
4 of 16
Line: Miami -5
Why Cleveland Can Win: Peyton Hillis had an epic day against Carolina, but that's exactly why you shouldn't read into it too much. It's looking like it's going to be Jake Delhomma under center again, so Bowns fans should be worried. The Browns' best hope is that the Dolphins forget what they did last week and revert to being too pass happy again.
Why Miami Can Win: They controlled the ball for over 40 minutes and ran the ball for over 185 yards against the Raiders. There's the Dolphins that we saw last year. They obviously remembered their strengths and played quite possibly their best game of the season because of it. And besides, keeping Hillis off the field is the best way to stop him.
Prediction: Hard to have faith in the Browns without McCoy, but I'd take them anyway. Dolphins win 24-20.
12. Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
5 of 16
Line: Indianapolis -6
Why Dallas Can Win: They were two minutes away from a big win over New Orleans, so you shouldn't take the loss as a sign their turnaround under Jason Garrett is over. Especially, of course, since they also have the benefit of playing a Colts team that is clearly struggling right now. The only bad news is that the Colts have a very good pass defense, so the Cowboys will need somebody else besides Jon Kitna to generate offense.
Why Indianapolis Can Win: Take away Peyton Manning's two pick-sixes, and they might win that game against the Chargers. Joseph Addai is not going to be back this week, or so it seems, so Manning is going to have to shoulder the load once again. They'll be fine if he can be his usual self, which involves him not throwing seven picks in two games. The good news for him is that the Cowboys have only nine picks all season.
Prediction: Given the conditions of both teams, this spread is too big. Take Dallas in a game they lose 24-21.
11. Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
6 of 16
Line: Chicago -4
Why Chicago Can Win: In their last two games, the Lions have surrendered seven touchdown passes. If you're name is Jay Cutler, and you're coming off a four touchdown performance against a much better defense, you're excited. But don't discount Matt Forte's contribution last week. He struggled gaining yards in the early going this season, but has averaged better than 3.5 yards a carry in four of his last five.
Why Detroit Can Win: The end result of their Thanksgiving game against the Pats looked bad, but let's not forget that the game was tied going into the fourth quarter. That being said, the Lions are not going to be able to put up the same kind of points up against Chicago's defense, which is second in the NFL in scoring (15.6 points/game), as they did against New England. But if the Lions happen to catch the Jay Cutler from the first half of the season, they'll definitely have a shot to win.
Prediction: Take the Bears. They'll win 24-16.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
7 of 16
Line: Even
Why Jacksonville Can Win: The biggest advantage the Jaguars have is that they're facing a Titans team that is in complete disarray. The Jags may have lost against the Giants on Sunday, but they did have a convincing 17-6 halftime lead. In addition, Maurice Jones-Drew is still on a roll. He topped 100 yards for the fourth straight game and is now fourth in the league in rushing.
Why Tennessee Can Win: They need to find some offense, as their point totals have decreased in each of their last four games, bottoming out with their shutout against Houston. It's not going to come from the passing game, as it looks like they'll have to go with Rusty Smith at quarterback again. Getting Chris Johnson back on track a week after he had just five yards on seven carries would be a good idea.
Prediction: Take the Jags to win 20-14.
9. Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers
8 of 16
Line: San Diego -13
Why Oakland Can Win: They desperately need to get Darren McFadden going again. When he plays well, they play well. But he's had just 16 yards on 18 carries the last two weeks. Jason Campbell will start at quarterback, but the Raiders' main concern should be the other quarterback on the field. Philip Rivers didn't have any touchdowns last week, but misfired on just four of his 23 passes. The Raiders were successful against Rivers when they blitzed Michael Huff earlier this season. That might be a good idea again.
Why San Diego Can Win: The Raiders have come back to earth in a big way in the last two weeks, and the Chargers are clearly going in the other direction. This game isn't even going to be close if Rivers can do what he's been doing this season. Secondly, the Raiders run defense greatly regressed last week. That's where Mike Tolbert comes in.
Prediction: The Raiders may be bad right now, but spreads this big always scare me. San Diego is only going to win 31-20. Take Oakland.
8. Washington Redskins At New York Giants
9 of 16
Line: New York -7
Why Washington Can Win: The Redskins have pulled off some sneaky-good road wins this year. They won at Philadelphia, at Green Bay, and at Tennessee. Now they'll have to win at New York, where the Giants needed a second half surge in order to beat Jacksonville. If the Skins can get into a defensive struggle, they'll be good. Last week was their first loss in a game in which they held an opponent under 20 points.
Why New York Can Win: Making the switch to Brandon Jacobs paid off, as the big guy rushed for 87 yards on just 14 carries. More of the same would be a good idea against the Skins, who are allowing over 130 rushing yards per game. Then it's just a simple matter of protecting the ball and not giving Washington easy chances.
Prediction: Too big of a spread. Take the Skins in a game the Giants will win 23-17.
7. Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
10 of 16
Line: Seattle -6
Why Carolina Can Win: They finally got Jonathan Stewart going against Cleveland, as he rushed for 98 yards on 12 carries, and they actually matched the Browns in terms of rushing at 151 yards to 152. Why not try that again against Seattle, which gives up over 120 yards rushing per game?
Why Seattle Can Win: It's hard to tell how the Seahawks have managed to to earn a 5-6 record. They're dreadful. They've also given up more than 40 points in each of their last two home games. That won't be the case against Carolina, so they should be able to win by default.
Prediction: What a hideous matchup...I'll take Seattle to win 17-7.
6. St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals
11 of 16
Line: St. Louis -4
Why St. Louis Can Win: The Cardinals can't do anything well right now. If you're Sam Bradford, and you've thrown only one interception in six games, this is good news. The Rams may be overachieving right now, but they also might be the best team in the NFC West thanks to Bradford. They're also tied for second in the NFL with 31 sacks, and the Cardinals have given up 36 sacks this season.
Why Arizona Can Win: Well, they're at home. Other than that...who knows? Maybe they can win if Derek Anderson gets some time in the pocket and doesn't turn the ball over. They also need to run the ball effectively and actually look like they give a damn on defense.
Prediction: Take the Rams. They'll win 27-10.
5. Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
12 of 16
Line: Minnesota -6
Why Buffalo Can Win: It's looking like Adrian Peterson isn't going to be able to play and will be limited even if he does. Good news for the Bills, who struggle against the run. They're playing as well as any 2-9 team in recent memory, and should by all rights be riding a three game win streak. The real question in this game is whether you buy Minnesota's win against Washington last week.
Why Minnesota Can Win: The idea against Buffalo is always going to be to run the ball, and the Vikings do have a capable alternative in the event Peterson can't go. Former Stanford running back and Heisman contender Toby Gerhart pitched in 76 yards on 22 carries last week and is the kind of back that can wear down a defense. They shouldn't be afraid of letting him go at it again.
Prediction: That spread is too big. Buffalo only ever loses by three. Take the Bills in a game the Vikings will win 23-20.
4. Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles
13 of 16
Line: Philadelphia -9
Why Houston Can Win: They snapped a four game losing streak with their win against the Titans, who appear to be one of the only teams heading south faster than the Texans. Moreover, they pitched a shutout and got to see Andre Johnson rearrange Cortland Finnegan's face. He will play in this game, which is good. They're going to need him. The Texans have no chance in hell of stopping Vick and the Eagles, so Johnson, Matt Schaub, and Arian Foster will have to be integral parts of a scoring machine that can keep pace.
Why Philadelphia Can Win: Vick had a subpar game against the Bears and still threw for 33 yards and two touchdowns. He's a beast. He and DeSean Jackson should be able to tear apart the Texans' slow secondary. If Asante Samuel can play, the Eagles secondary that gave up four touchdown passes by Jay Cutler should be much better. Remember, he's also had two interceptions in two of his last three games.
Prediction: I'm not buying Houston's win against Tennessee. Take Philly in a game they'll win 31-20.
3. New Orleans Saints at Cincinnati Bengals
14 of 16
Line: New Orleans -7
Why New Orleans Can Win: Yes, Drew Brees has been pretty good during the Saints four-game win streak, but it's the Saints defense that should be able to secure the team's ninth win on Sunday. They allow less than 18 points per game and barely more than 300 yards per game. They have the fortune of facing a Cincinnati team that struggled mightily against the Jets, gaining just 163 total yards.
Why Cincinnati Can Win: They obviously need to find a way to put points on the board in order to match wits with the Saints. The bad news is that the Bengals simply aren't a very good offensive club. But they did have a 28-7 second quarter lead in their last home game against Buffalo. They lost the game, but they did show they still have the capacity to dominate. They won't dominate against New Orleans, but they could be surprisingly competitive.
Prediction: Why would anybody pick the Bengals? Take the Saints, who will win 28-14.
2. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
15 of 16
Line: Green Bay -10
Why San Francisco Can Win: Losing Frank Gore for the season is a killer, as the Niners are at their best when Gore is getting the ball. Now it falls to Troy Smith to generate offense, and he's only topped 200 yards in one of his four starts. The Niners also struggled mightily with their pass protection two games ago against Tampa Bay and can ill afford to do so against the Packers' studly pass rush.
Why Green Bay Can Win: There's no shame in losing to the Falcons in Atlanta. They'll bounce back in Lambeau, where they've played just once in the last five weeks. Aaron Rodgers has played very well in his last three games, throwing eight touchdowns and no picks. If they can get big numbers out of him, and the Packers can pressure Troy Smith, this game will be over fast.
Prediction: Big win against Arizona? Big deal. Take the Pack in a game they'll win 30-10.
1. Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
16 of 16
Line: Kansas City -9
Why Denver Can Win: Whatever they did to beat the Chiefs 49-29 a few weeks ago, they need to do it again. In other words, they need to do what they do best: throw the ball. If Orton can complete nearly 65 percent of his passes, the Broncos can be hard to beat. If not, there's nothing they can do to win.
Why Kansas City Can Win: They have quickly transformed from a rushing team designed to control the clock to a passing juggernaut designed to put points on the board. This has everything to do with the chemistry between Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe. It wasn't Cassel who lost the Denver game. He threw four touchdowns. Instead, KC's defense obviously needs to make some major adjustments.
Prediction: It's going to be a reversal. Take the Chiefs to win a barn burner, 35-21. That's your lock of the week, folks.
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