ACC/Big Ten Challenge: A Peek Ahead, Part II

Last night, Big Duke Balls delivered part one of our peak ahead to the ACC/Big Ten challenge. Obviously, I’m off to another losing start in my pointless predictions with Virginia taking down Minnesota. If you foresaw the Cavaliers hitting 10-of-13 from three and beating Minnesota, call me, I need to borrow your Grey’s Sports Almanac.

As exciting as that write was though, today is a new day and it’s time to really impress you with part two. Impressed yet? You shouldn’t be, I haven’t even started yet.

Wednesday, December 1

Purdue at Virginia Tech

The Hokies and Boilermakers will face off for the first time in this challenge. Virginia Tech has only played in five of these so far, but they’ve managed to take three of the five. Purdue has never really proven itself in this challenge. They’re only 3-6, including an 0-4 mark on the road. In fact, they are one of three teams (Michigan and Iowa are the other two) that have never won on the road in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

Purdue got off to a nice start to the season, winning five straight before running into Richmond. Of course, like so many teams who start the season undefeated, Purdue hasn’t really played anyone and they really won’t until Big Ten play. Virginia Tech could be their toughest test.

So far, Purdue’s mission has been to find a solid third option with Ronnie Hummel out for the season. The fact is, a threesome is always better than a twosome. I believe I saw that on a video clip I found on the Internet. So far, that mission has not been a success.

E-Twaun Moore and JaJuan Johnson have combined to score over 37 points per game. That accounts for 47 percent of Purdue’s points. They’ve taken nearly half of the team’s shots. You have to figure that number is going to get worse once the Boilermakers stop playing cream puffs and get into the meat of their schedule.

Speaking of cream puffs, Virginia Tech has been crucified (and left out of the tournament) because of their non-threatening, non-conference schedule in the past. This season, Seth Greenberg finally put some steak and potatoes on the schedule, but the problem is, someone has to remind them that they need to actually win one or two of these bad boys.

The problem for the Hokies so far is the fact they have two great guards, but they’re both natural shooting guards. Both Malcolm Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson can score points (they’re producing over 32 per game right now), but both are struggling to hold onto the ball. Hudson has only 10 assists to 18 turnovers, but Delaney (who is actually playing the point) is worse. He has only 18 assists to 35 turnovers (that’s nearly six per game).

If the Hokies are going to get this ship turned around, there is no better time than a televised game, at home with the crowd going nuts.

Worthless Prediction: Virginia Tech, 81-77

North Carolina State at Wisconsin

These two have never met in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Wisconsin has won three of their last four games in the challenge, including handing Duke its first loss in this challenge last year. North Carolina State has dropped three of four.

The Wolfpack lost Tracy Smith for three weeks to a knee injury and so far, NC State has survived without their senior big man thanks to a balanced effort. In four games, a player has scored in double figures 17 times, yet no one has broken 20 points.

Heading into the season, C.J. Leslie and Ryan Harrow were the two big-name freshman headed to Raleigh, but freshman Lorenzo Brown has been the one getting it done. He leads the team in minutes (31.2), points (12.5), assists (4.2), steals (1.8) and is second in rebounds (5.2).

Wisconsin is off to a slow start, already suffering two losses to UNLV and Notre Dame. Neither defeat was a major upset, but the fact is, the Badgers are desperately looking for a go-to guy, who will take care of business during clutch time.

Against UNLV, the Badgers had a one point lead with 4:38 to play. While they hit their free throws, they didn’t make a single shot down the stretch (shooting 0-5, turning it over three times).

At Notre Dame, Wisconsin had a nine point lead with 10 minutes to play. However, they would only hit two more shots the rest of the way before putting in a worthless three with seven seconds to go.

In the end though, the home crowd can get wild in Madison. The big question will be, how will NC State’s freshmen handle the crowd and the pressure? My gut says they’ll crack in the end.

Worthless Prediction: Wisconsin, 65-60

Indiana at Boston College

Who would have thought that Boston College would be the only undefeated team in this tournament. Sure they’ve only played four games, but that’s still impressive. One team they’ve never played is Indiana, who is only 3-6 in the challenge.

These two teams couldn’t be more opposite. It would be like matching up Paris Hilton with one of the Jonas Brothers. One is stacked with experience, while the other has none.

Of the 14 players on BC’s roster, two are freshmen, three are juniors and a stunning nine are seniors. Based solely on games played, there is no more experienced team in the ACC. Yet, no one would bet their first born and say this is a good team.

If you look at just scoring totals, one might think Boston College is struggling to score. They’re averaging just over 67 points per game (tied for last with Virginia in the ACC). However, sometimes numbers can lie. The reality is, the Eagles are actually 21st in the nation in AdjO, according to Ken Pom.

New coach Steve Donahue has forced his experienced squad to slow it down a bit and play smart, efficient basketball. The Eagles are fifth in turnover percentage, dishing out 25 more assists than turnovers. They’re also leading the ACC in free throw percentage (77 percent). Most importantly, they’re first in the ACC in scoring defense, giving up just 59 points per game.

Of course Indiana is in the process of a huge youth movement. Last year, Tom Cream’s group produced six wins, stuck playing a ton of freshmen. This season, seven of their top eight scorers are either freshman or sophomores, yet they have already equaled their win total from last year.

Defense has been a big difference in 2010-11. Last year the Hoosiers were last in the Big Ten in scoring defense, but this year they are giving up 16 points less per game. They’ve allowed their opponents to hit just 37-percent of their shots, while they’ve hit just under 50-percent from the floor.

Having said that, Indiana hasn’t really faced a real test so far. Their six opponents have a combined record of just 14-19 and Indiana has handled them to the tune of 21 points per game. At least the Eagles have already been through some competition this year.

Worthless Prediction: Boston College, 76-68

Continue reading: ACC/Big Ten Challenge: A Peak Ahead, Part II