Week 12 NFL Picks: Seven Upsets You Can Bet the House On
We've got your Week 12 NFL Picks right here, just in time for Turkey Day.
There are some pretty interesting spreads concerning tomorrow's three-game slate, including two heavy favorites.
There are plenty of these to go around on Sunday as well, and Monday night's NFC West showdown between San Francisco and Arizona could go either way.
We'll get to every game in turn, but we're going to focus primarily on 10 upsets you can bet the house on.
Start the slideshow for some serious football knowledge.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
1 of 16
Line: Even
Why Tennessee Can Win: When it's the Texans, we usually say to throw the ball. But because they're now down to Rusty Smith, I'd say they're safer off just handing it to Chris Johnson, who has averaged more than six yards a carry each of the last two weeks. On defense, go to the well: the pass rush. The Titans are tied for second in the league in sacks with 30.
Why Houston Can Win: We're all down on them, but they could be 5-5 right now had they been able to hold on against the Jets. They're catching the Titans at the right time however, as they finally get to face a quarterback who won't automatically shred their poor pass defense. If it turns into an offensive game, you have to favor the Texans.
Prediction: No spread? Okay then, I guess I'll take Houston to beat a reeling Titans squad. Houston wins 28-20.
Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders
2 of 16
Line: Even
Why Miami Can Win: They have Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, and they may as well finally put them to good use now that they know Tyler Thigpen isn't going to give them much. The Raiders run defense has been very good recently, however, so they'll obviously have to switch it up. Maybe some Wildcat plays?
Why Oakland Can Win: Their effort against Pittsburgh was hideous, but they're playing a Miami team that is hardly the same threat. Darren McFadden should be able to get back on track against a defense that allows over 110 yards on the ground. That should spread the field for Jason Campbell, who had no time to throw against Pittsburgh.
Prediction: No spread again? Shrug. Raiders win 24-10.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
3 of 16
Line: Cleveland -10.5
Why Carolina Can Win: I honestly don't know if they want to at this point. Not with the number one overall pick pretty much in their grasp. But if they do, they should look to have their way with Jake Delhomme, who is likely to play for the first time since Week 5. That and try like hell to put a couple bodies in Peyton Hillis' way.
Why Cleveland Can Win: All they have to do is get to 20 points, and they should win. The Panthers have topped 20 only once, which came in their one and only win against San Francisco.
Prediction: The 2010 Browns should frame this spread and hang it on their wall. It is evidence that they don't suck all that bad. And they will win 24-7.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
4 of 16
Line: Kansas City -1
Why Kansas City Can Win: Mainly because the Seahwaks are awful. But despite the fact they've gotten away from it recently, the Chiefs still lead the NFL in rushing, and they need to get back to that against Seattle. Although letting Matt Cassel air it out against a defense that allows more than 280 passing yards per game isn't a bad idea either.
Why Seattle Can Win: Well, they're at home. That will help. They've only lost one game at home all season, and are 3-0 with Matt Hasselbeck under center. They'll have that luxury for the third straight week, so anything is possible.
Prediction: This line is a joke. Kansas City will 31-14.
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
5 of 16
Line: New Orleans -4
Why New Orleans Can Win: The Saints are coming off probably their best offensive game of the season (494 yards and 34 points), and should finally get Reggie Bush back for tomorrow's Turkey Day tilt. But they'll be going up against a Dallas defense that has clearly been revived in the wake of Wade Phillips' exit. They key will be protecting Brees, who was manhandled by Dallas in last year's 24-17 loss to the Cowboys.
Why Dallas Can Win: The Boys have obviously woken up under Jason Garrett. They've topped 30 points in each of their last two games after doing so once in their first eight. They still don't really have any ground game to speak of, so the Saints can expect Jon Kitna to have around 30 throws. He's played well recently, but he'll have to work his way around a Saints defense that is second in the league against the pass.
Prediction: New Orleans will humble the Cowboys, winning 28-17.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
6 of 16
Line: Pittsburgh -7
Why Pittsburgh Can Win: Rashard Mendenhall has been largely ineffective in two straight weeks, but he might be due for a huge game against Buffalo's league-worst rush defense (163.5 yards/game). That should set up some nifty play-action passes to the ever-speedy Mike Wallace. He's averaging 23 yards a catch, and there aren't many who can catch him in open space. Aside from that, make sure to double cover Steve Johnson and make somebody else beat you.
Why Buffalo Can Win: Why not? They've won two in a row, and are coming off a 49 point, 449 yard effort against Cincy. Ryan Fitzpatrick had his second four touchdown game of the season, and Steve Johnson had himself a hell of a day with three touchdown catches. A repeat effort isn't out of the question. If you think it is, I have one question: Why So Serious?
Prediction: Pittsburgh only loses to elite teams. They'll win 35-20.
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
7 of 16
Line: Philadelphia -4
Why Philadelphia Can Win: If the Giants were a tough test for Michael Vick, than the Bears are even tougher. They're one of the top units in the league in terms of both points and yards, and they have the personnel that can limit Vick. While Andy Reid will probably stick to his guns for the most part, it wouldn't be at all surprising if he threw some trick plays at the Bears. If they can put some points on the board, they should be able to overpower Chicago's mediocre offense.
Why Chicago Can Win: Because they can stop Mike Vick. Aside from that, they should be able to score some points if Jay Cutler can play smart, which is far from a sure thing. And they're also 3-0 when Matt Forte has more than 20 carries.
Prediction: Philadelphia will win 21-10.
St. Louis Rams at Denver Broncos
8 of 16
Line: Denver -4
Why St. Louis Can Win: San Diego showed what can happen when Kyle Orton faces constant pressure. And it just so happens that the Rams are also a very good pass rush team, with 28 sacks on the year. If you can beat Denver's passing game, you can beat them.
Why Denver Can Win: The Broncos don't really do anything well except pass the ball, but they stand a pretty good chance to win if they can limit Steven Jackson. Sam Bradford is really good, but he's not the kind of guy who can win a game single-handedly quite yet.
Prediction: St. Louis will win 24-23.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
9 of 16
Line: San Francisco -1
Why San Francisco Can Win: It can't get any worse than their performance against Tampa Bay. It starts with getting Troy Smith outside the pocket, where he thrives at making something out of nothing. But Frank Gore also needs touches, and will be hungry coming off a game in which he had just 12 carries for 23 yards.
Why Arizona Can Win: I don't think they can. They've lost five in a row, and they look terrible. But they stand a chance if they can get after Troy Smith the same way Tampa Bay did. And if they can stop frank Gore. And Vernon Davis. And Michael Crabtree. And...
Prediction: Hideous matchup. But San Francisco wins 14-10.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens
10 of 16
Line: Baltimore -8
Why Tampa Bay Can Win: They don't have the kind of weapons on offense that will allow them to give Baltimore's defense a run for its money, so they'll have to step up and hold their own in a defensive struggle. They somehow managed to sack Troy Smith six times on Sunday, despite having only eight sacks all year. Digging up more of that magic can only help.
Why Baltimore Can Win: Baltimore's pass defense probably isn't as good as their rush defense, but they've only been beaten by elite quarterbacks this year: Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, and Matt Ryan. Josh Freeman is good, but he's not elite quite yet. Advantage Ravens.
Prediction: Here's the first of your seven upsets. Baltimore will win, but Tampa Bay is better than an eight point spread. Take them in a game that the Ravens win 24-20.
6. New England Patriots at Detroit Lions
11 of 16
Line: New England -7
Why New England Can Win: The Patriots lead the NFL in scoring, and Tom Brady has thrown nine touchdowns and no picks in his last five games. Much has been made about the Pats' soft defense, particularly in the secondary, but the Lions are not nearly as dangerous on offense with Shaun Hill under center. That being said, that Pats should expect Hill to throw the ball close to 50 times.
Why Detroit Can Win: More or less by doing what I just hinted at. The only way you can beat the Pats is to outscore them, and the Lions' offense is a largely underrated unit. Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best are both big playmakers, so Hill would do well to find them as often as he can, and hope that they can match wits with the Pats.
Prediction: New England will win, but the spread is too unkind to the home team. Take Detroit in a game that they will lose 30-24.
5. Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins
12 of 16
Line: Washington -2
Why Minnesota Can Win: They should look to the Cowboys for inspiration, for one. But as always, the Vikings are perfectly capable of winning if Brett Favre can stop throwing the ball to the wrong guys. Considering he's had only two games this season with more touchdowns than picks, I realize that's a lot to ask. Aside from that, it's an abomination that Adrian Peterson hasn't had 25 carries since Week 8.
Why Washington Can Win: They win a different way each week, so giving them pointers is pretty hard. But since they're playing against Favre, "take the ball away" is always a good lesson to preach. That means you, Dante Hall.
Prediction: I joke, but I also like Minnesota to win one for Leslie Frazier. Take the Vikings, who will win 21-17.
4. Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
13 of 16
Line: New York -9
Why Cincinnati Can Win: The Cincinnati offense will do its thing, but they need to find a way to limit the Jets' fourth-ranked rushing offense. And then they need to bottle up Santonio Holmes, and make Mark Sanchez beat them with secondary targets. And T.O. had better hope, for his team's sake, that Darrelle Revis really is an "average corner."
Why New York Can Win: Run the ball. The Bengals are giving up over 120 yards per game on the ground in their seven-game losing streak. And if Revis can indeed get the better of Owens and/or Chad Ochocinco, then stopping the Bengals shouldn't be all that difficult. Also, Mark Sanchez and Santonio Holmes have a good thing going, and they should try to keep it up.
Prediction: The Bengals are terrible, but that's a big spread for a team that has won each of their last three games by 12 points combined. Take Cincy in a game that New York wins 27-21.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants
14 of 16
Line: New York -8
Why Jacksonville Can Win: It would appear that Maurice Jones-Drew has finally showed up in Jacksonville's last three games. And wouldn't you know it, the Jags are 3-0. More of the same, please. That being said, the Giants' run defense is one of the best in the NFL, so David Garrard should have the Hail Mary cannon ready.
Why New York Can Win: It's not really their style, but they need to play angry. They're better than they've shown in the last two weeks, and the Jags are overachieving right now. First off, hold on to the darn ball. Benching Ahmad Bradshaw in favor of Brandon Jacobs should help. Jacksonville has a pretty weak pass defense, so Eli Manning should be able to have one of his better games.
Prediction: The spread is much too big considering how these teams have played in recent weeks. New York will win 24-21. Take Jacksonville.
2. Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
15 of 16
Line: Atlanta -2
Why Green Bay Can Win: You have to like Aaron Rodgers in any game against a team that allows more than 240 passing yards per game. But they must hassle Matt Ryan, who has only been sacked 15 times this season. If they can force a subpar game out of him at home, then they have a shot to put a second black mark on his home record.
Why Atlanta Can Win: There seems to be little reason to doubt the Dirty Birds at this point, especially not with Matt Ryan at home in the equation. Moreover, the Falcons shouldn't be too worried about Casey Matthews and friends when they easily handled St. Louis' beastly pass rush last week. Michael Turner should have a solid game against Green Bay's run defense, which gives up over 110 yards per game on the ground.
Prediction: Worst. Spread. Ever. But I'll take the Pack to upset outright and win 28-24.
1. San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
16 of 16
Line: Indianapolis -3
Why San Diego Can Win: The Colts are very good against the pass, but this is Philip Rivers we're talking about. Also, the Chargers are at their best when they're getting after the quarterback. This is exactly what we saw against Denver, when they got five sacks on Kyle Orton. More of the same is a good idea against Peyton Manning, who struggles with people in his face.
Why Indianapolis Can Win: Sooner or later, the fact that Rivers has nothing but spare parts to throw to is going to hurt the Chargers. Maybe that will be against the Colts, who defense, as I mentioned, is very good against the pass. Rivers will probably try to reacquaint himself with Vincent Jackson early, so the Colts need to be ready for that. They also obviously need to protect Peyton, and hope that they can get plenty of points off his arm.
Prediction: The Chargers are hot. They will win 35-28.
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