College Football Predictions: Ole Miss Over LSU and Other Week 12 Upsets
As we collectively turn the corner towards the dramatic end of the 2010 regular season, the upsets become more difficult to forecast.
The margins between the good, bad and ugly lessen. The odds-makers’ magic spreads tighten. And, given weeks of past performances to draw on, a shocking outcome seems less probable.
So then how did Northwestern upend Iowa, how did lowly Minnesota manage a win over improving Illinois, how did the Irish beat Utah, Oregon State bow to Washington State and how did Colorado knock off Iowa State?
The upset lives on!
Through the fires of “almost” and “if it weren’t for," the shocker still claims its victim—sometimes slowly and painfully and sometimes as quickly as the final seconds tick off the game clock.
Just when you least expect it, boom! The underdog vanquishes its lofty, cocky, media-touted prey and the college football world looks on bemused, perplexed but, ultimately, humbled by the power of the unknown.
Indeed, why even play the game if we are already sure of the outcome?
So whose hopes will be dashed in Week 12? Who will wait until the campaign is almost complete before they dramatically fall from grace, hitting the surface of the earth with a delightful and welcome thud?
The following slideshow will attempt to pinpoint six of these upsets. Some are ridiculous, but all in the wonderful world of college football could come to fruition before our very eyes.
6. Ole Miss Over LSU
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@ LSU
LSU -16
Overall Series: LSU leads 53-36 and is 36-23 vs. the Rebels in Baton Rouge.
No. 5 LSU is 9-1 after blanking Louisiana-Monroe 51-0 last weekend in Baton Rouge. Ole Miss is 4-6 and fresh off a debilitating 52-14 beat down at the hands of a struggling Tennessee squad.
The Bottom Line
On the surface this pick makes no sense and seemingly is a waste of time even to discuss.
Here we have a 9-1 LSU squad that has found a way to win all year and has everything to lose in this game. On the other side of the ball we have a hapless Ole Miss team that has found a way to lose all year (sometimes in an ugly fashion) and will have to win out (at LSU and then hosting Mississippi State) to even become bowl eligible.
But maybe this is just the perfect storm needed for a stunning upset, especially given that Houston Nutt and Ole Miss have successfully played the spoiler on many previous occasions.
Ole Miss versus LSU leaves little statistical evidence for the upset picker to hang his/her hat on.
Interestingly, LSU’s only “weaknesses” (a very relative term) play nicely into the Rebels' only “strengths” (again relative to Ole Miss’s overall weak portfolio).
Ole Miss is No. 14 nationally in rushing yards, averaging 219 yards per game, while LSU’s rushing defense is the only category (defensively) in which it ranks out of the top 10 (coming in at No. 27).
On the other side of the ball, LSU obviously has enjoyed a great deal more success running the ball (No. 33) versus passing (a dismal No. 114). Defending the run just so happens to be the only defensive category that the Rebels have even enjoyed a slight degree of competency (No. 48 against the run and No. 94 against the pass).
Can the Black Bears (aka Rebels) actually stop the Tigers' running attack and then run the ball on their defense?
Probably not, but throw in a few mistakes and some weird Les Miles and Houston Nutt voodoo and anything could happen, right?
5. Fresno State Over Boise State
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@ Boise State, Friday Night
Boise State -30.5
Overall Series: Boise State leads 8-2 and is a perfect 4-0 vs. the Bulldogs in Boise.
No. 4 Boise State is 9-0 and looks unstoppable, hosting a 6-3 Fresno State squad fresh off a disappointing one-point loss to No. 18 Nevada.
The Bottom Line
Now I really am wasting both your time and mine by wildly throwing this game into the upset mix. In reality, Ole Miss over LSU deserves the ridiculous pick of the week label and mentioning a Boise State loss to the Bulldogs at home is crossing the line.
Ludicrous, absurd, preposterous, nonsensical.
But, what if . . . ?
What if Fresno State’s somewhat balanced offensive attack found a way to score points on an absolutely oppressive Broncos' defense? Keep in mind, won’t you, that the Bulldogs rank No. 23 in offensive scoring . . .
What if the Bulldogs' defense, that ranks No. 16 against the pass, could find a way to manufacture just enough stops to squelch the Broncos' unstoppable passing attack, led by the fresh-faced Kellen Moore?
What if the Bulldogs played the perfect game and Boise State finally made a few costly mistakes?
And what if I told you, according to Congrove Computer Rankings, that Boise State and Fresno State have virtually the same strength of schedule ranking (81 and 82 respectively)?
The question that begs asking is: will we be compelled to watch this game past the first half?
Will it even be close enough to tune in for the third quarter? Indeed, will we allow our eyesight to be further jeopardized by the noxious blue turf presented in high definition for just another few moments because the outcome is still in doubt?
What if, my friend, what if?
4. Michigan Over Wisconsin
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@ Michigan
Wisconsin -5.5
Overall Series: Michigan leads 49-13 and is 27-6 vs. Wisconsin in the Big House
No. 7 Wisconsin is 9-1 as it packs its bags to travel to the Wolverine State. It is fresh off a scathing 83-20 dismantling of Indiana. Michigan is 7-3 and has won the past two consecutive games over Illinois (in a triple-overtime defensive thriller) and Purdue.
The Bottom Line
Before everyone starts matriculating Big 10 tiebreaker scenarios, it might be prudent to wait until Week 12 passes.
Though Ohio State at Iowa might raise more eyebrows this weekend, let’s not be hasty in predicting an easy Badgers win on the road in the Big House.
After ringing up 83 points on Indiana last weekend, Wisconsin is surely primed to play the next opponent, especially given that the Wolverines are No. 93 nationally in scoring defense.
Regardless of any preconceived notions, this matchup actually presents a fairly provocative statistical case for Michigan having a chance of defeating the Badgers and basically making a wonderful mess of the Big 10 standings.
We know that the Denard Robinson show will score points (even given the fact that Wisconsin has a solid defense, ranked No. 23 nationally) but will the Wolverines' defense be able to stop the Badgers' offense?
This is where it gets interesting. The only even marginally-effective part of the Michigan defense in 2010 has been against the run, in which the Wolverines rank No. 77 (versus the pass defense that ranks No. 112).
Wisconsin is primarily a running team. It ranks No. 12 in rushing offense and No. 74 in passing.
If the Wolverines can shut down the Badgers' ground game, which may be further aided by the fact that leading rusher John Clay (929 yards and 13 touchdowns) is questionable for Saturday, they may just knock off the No. 7 Badgers in Ann Arbor.
The other factor that deserves consideration is whether or not Wisconsin played its best game last weekend versus Indiana. Yes, it was just Indiana, but 83 points, really?
Have the Badgers peaked too early and what do they have left in their tank?
You can watch Glee if you want to, but for me Michigan versus Wisconsin really is “must see TV.”
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
3. California Over Stanford
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@ California
Stanford -7
Overall Series: Stanford leads 55-46-11
No. 6 Stanford is 9-1 overall while Cal is 5-5 and fresh off a thrilling two-point defeat at the hands of the No. 1 Oregon Ducks.
The Bottom Line
Stanford owns the No. 9 scoring offense in the nation. The Cardinal average 40 points per game and are fairly well-balanced, ranking No. 33 in passing yards and No. 17 on the ground.
But looking over Stanford’s nine opponents thus far (throwing out their only FCS foe), combined these foes average to rank 67th in scoring defense.
The California Golden Bears, on the other hand, rank No. 30 in scoring defense and also have proven balanced on defense, ranking No. 18 against the pass and No. 26 versus the run.
The numbers support the claim that Cal can probably manage to stop the Cardinal attack enough to give them a chance of scoring an improbable upset. This is exactly what happened last weekend against Oregon, which managed only 15 points against the Golden Bears (more impressive when you consider that the Ducks are No. 1 in scoring offense averaging 50 points per game).
The bottom line is can Cal score points on a good Stanford defense?
The key to offensive success might be on the ground, where Cal’s rushing leader, Junior Shane Vereen (998 yards and 13 touchdowns), will need to have a big day in order for the Golden Bears to knock off the Cardinal.
Of note, in Stanford’s only loss this season (to Oregon) the Cardinal defense allowed 388 yards of rushing. Additionally, in a close call against USC, Stanford allowed almost 200 yards on the ground.
Run Shane, run!
2. Louisville Over West Virginia
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@ Louisville
West Virginia -5.5
Overall Series: West Virginia leads 9-2 and is 3-1 at Louisville
West Virginia is 6-3 coming into its annual meeting with Louisville, while the Cardinals are 5-5 and coming off a disappointing overtime loss to South Florida.
The Bottom Line
The Mountaineers are ranked nationally in the top five in scoring defense, pass defense and rush defense. Though their “D” is stifling, they have been less effective moving the ball and rank No. 74 in offensive scoring.
The keys to West Virginia’s three losses (to LSU, Syracuse and UConn) have been turnovers and special teams mistakes. The other outstanding stat in two of the three losses (to LSU and Syracuse) was that the Mountaineers gave up over 150 yards rushing.
For the Cardinals to knock off the Mountaineers, they will need to: force turnovers (WVU turned the ball over three times versus Syracuse and four times versus UConn) and be successful running the ball against a good West Virginia defense.
Louisville has the benefit of the No. 6 rusher in the nation in Bilal Powell, who has rushed for 1,207 yards and nine touchdowns thus far in 2010.
Though Powell suffered a knee injury October 30th in the game versus Pittsburgh and subsequently was not in action in the Cardinals' win at Syracuse, he did play in last week's loss to South Florida and rushed for 140 yards.
1. Maryland Over Florida State
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@ Maryland
Florida State -6
Overall Series: Florida St. leads 18-2 and is 7-2 in College Park, MD.
No. 25 Florida State is 7-3 and fresh off a last-second field-goal victory over Clemson. Unranked Maryland is also 7-3 and pounded Virginia on the road last weekend 42-24.
The Bottom Line
The Terrapins were predicted to finish at the bottom of the ACC Atlantic Division, but going into Week 12 they suddenly control their own destiny.
If Maryland can manage a victory over Florida State and then NC State (both games at home), they will capture the ACC Atlantic Division crown and punch their ticket to the ACC championship game.
Florida State, on the other hand, needs to beat Maryland and then have North Carolina State drop one of its last two games (at North Carolina or at Maryland ) to win the Atlantic and move on to the title game.
If the Terrapins are to complete step one of their two-step championship plan they will do so on the strong arm of quarterbacj Danny O’Brien. Freshman O’Brien is 121-for-223 for 1,571 yards, 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions.
In two of Florida State’s three losses, it allowed an average of 337 yards through the air (394 to Oklahoma and 439 to North Carolina). The Seminoles rank No. 76 in pass defense and are a stifling No. 11 against the run.
On the other side of the ball, the Terrapins and Seminoles match up fairly evenly (Maryland’s No. 30scoring defense versus Florida State’s No. 34 scoring offense).
Of note, FSU QB Christian Ponder looks probable to start on Saturday evening versus Maryland after sitting out of the Clemson game with an elbow injury.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
