College Basketball: Best and Worst Case Scenarios for Each Top 25 Team
We’ve all heard the saying “when it rains, it pours.”
It generally means that when things are going bad, they go really bad.
And if you expand the meaning of this phrase to include good things as well, there might not be a better sport that typifies this idiom than college basketball.
Every year teams from around the country are lauded with praise before the season starts. We look to the preseason polls to tell us which ones are contenders and which ones don’t have much of a shot.
But as the season creeps toward March, there are always a few teams that seem to have everything go right and others that seem to have everything go wrong.
There is only one outcome that awaits each team in the Top 25. While it’s almost definitely somewhere in the middle of the best and worst case scenario, it can be interesting to take a look at where each of these teams would be if both the best and worst case scenarios were to take place.
So as the college basketball season gets underway, let's take a look at how the season will unfold for each team in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll, under both the best and worst case scenarios.
Remember, these best-and-worst case scenarios are more for fun than anything else. The likelihood of them happening is based on the idea that when it rains, it pours.
1. Duke
1 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith aren’t satisfied with just one championship and come out hungrier than ever.
Kyrie Irving is as good as advertised and makes the Blue Devil faithful forget all about Jon Scheyer.
The Plumlee twins pick up where Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas left off and actually do the garbage work even better than those two departed seniors. Seth Curry lives up to his name and dazzles off the bench.
North Carolina’s young players can’t live up to the hype. They miss out on the tournament for the second straight year and Roy Williams burns himself tanning.
Outcome
The Blue Devils cruise to their second straight championship.
Worst Case Scenario
Singler and Smith start looking ahead to their prospects in the NBA and have trouble meshing with Kyrie Irving, who is a much different player than Scheyer.
The Plumlee twins not only have trouble adjusting to their bigger roles on the team, but they try to do too much instead of letting Singler, Smith and Irving do the heavy lifting.
Duke comes to rely too much on the three-pointer instead of taking it aggressively to the basket. They are vulnerable when their long-range shots aren’t falling.
Roy Williams and Carolina get their mojo back and make a deep tournament run.
Outcome
Duke is upset in the Elite Eight.
2. Michigan State
2 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Kalin Lucas manages to stay healthy and shows why he’s one of the best guards in the nation.
Tom Izzo finally gets some consistency out of Durrell Summers, who emerges as a go-to scorer for the Spartans and looks like the guy who was one of the best players in last season's NCAA tournament.
Delvon Roe finally shakes his injury troubles that plagued him last season. He combines with the slimmed-down versions of Draymond Green and Derrick Nix to form one of the more intimidating frontcourts in the nation.
They humiliate Michigan both times they play, causing John Beilein to run away and never come back. They blow the doors off Duke at Cameron on Dec. 1 and their season only gets better from there.
Outcome
Tom Izzo and the Spartans win another title.
Worst Case Scenario
Kalin Lucas, Delvon Roe, and Korie Lucious all have trouble bouncing back from injury and never get in sync.
Durrell Summers continues to struggle being consistent and vanishes when the team needs him the most.
A Krispy Kreme opens up on Michigan State’s campus, causing Draymond Green and Derrick Nix to eat themselves out of basketball shape, dooming the team's inside play. Purdue finds a way to move on without Hummel and makes a deep tournament run.
Outcome
A trip to the Elite Eight.
3. Kansas State
3 of 25
Best Case Scenario
The team is able to deal with the high expectations that come with being a preseason Top Five selection.
Jacob Pullen cements himself as one of the premier guards in the country and builds off a wildly-successful junior season.
The combination of Rodney McGruder and Martavious Irving is able to replace the production that Denis Clemente gave the team last season. Wally Judge stays out of foul trouble, lives up to his potential, and becomes a dominant player on both sides of the floor.
Curtis Kelly and Jamar Samuels build off solid seasons last year and play bigger than their height under the basket.
Finally, Frank Martin keeps his cool and gets the most out of his players.
Outcome
All the pieces come together for K-State’s first championship ever.
Worst Case Scenario
The pressure of being picked as the Big 12 favorites and one of the top teams in the nation is too much for the Wildcats to handle.
The team misses Clemente’s game-changing speed and play-making ability because McGruder and Irving aren’t able to give the team viable guard play outside of Pullen. Wally Judge continues to under-perform and struggle with foul trouble.
The Wildcats get swept by Kansas and Frank Martin gets committed to a mental hospital.
Outcome
A not-so-sweet Sweet 16 exit.
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4. Pittsburgh
4 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker play lights-out all season.
They form one of the top backcourts in the nation and make Gilbert Brown’s transition to the starting lineup go smoothly.
Gary McGhee plays like a man possessed under the basket and makes opposing bigs dread going down low. Nasir Robinson recovers quickly from knee surgery and is ready to go by December.
Former McDonald’s All-American Dante Taylor is able to give the Panthers another viable low-post threat. He teams with McGhee to make one of the more rugged frontcourts in the Big East.
Travon Woodall emerges as another scoring option and takes some pressure off of Gibbs and Wanamaker. Jamie Dixon finally gets the credit he deserves after mopping the floor with Villanova and West Virginia and running away with the Big East.
The NCAA rules that Bob Huggins needs to dress like a human being on the sidelines and makes him do away with those ridiculous sweatsuits.
Outcome
National Champions
Worst Case Scenario
Gibbs and Wanamaker find life more difficult now that Pittsburgh is regarded as one of the best teams in the country.
They don’t get enough support from their teammates, especially from their post players, who aren’t able to give them consistent interior scoring.
Gilbert Brown struggles adjusting to a bigger role and Nasir Robinson’s knee injury takes longer to heal than expected. Referees crack down on Gary McGhee’s bone-crushing style of play and limit his effectiveness.
Outcome
Another heartbreaking loss to Villanova in the tournament.
Only this time, it’s in the Sweet 16.
5. Ohio State
5 of 25
Best Case Scenario
The returning backcourt trio of Diebler, Lighty and Buford give the team a steady veteran presence and make the most of their increased roles for the Buckeyes.
Freshman Jared Sullinger makes a seamless transition to the college game and gives Ohio State a matchup nightmare both in the post and on the wing. Dallas Lauderdale continues to be an intimidating defensive presence and cleans up under the basket.
The team's other prized frosh, Deshaun Thomas, establishes himself as a scoring machine off the Ohio State bench and provides a valuable breather for Diebler, Lighty and Buford. They weren’t able to take much of a rest last season.
The team puts the Evan Turner era behind them and plays more of a team-oriented game.
Outcome
Thad Matta and the Buckeyes take home the national championship.
Worst Case Scenario
The Buckeyes miss Evan Turner’s dynamic play-making abilities.
Diebler, Lighty and Buford aren’t able to take their games to the next level.
Thad Matta struggles finding a point guard to distribute the ball to all the scorers on the team. Sullinger not only looks ahead to NBA riches, he also clashes with the upperclassmen starters and tries to do too much by himself.
After an NCAA investigation, it is revealed that Dallas Lauderdale is actually 38 years old and he is ruled ineligible.
Outcome
An underwhelming Sweet 16 exit.
6. Kansas
6 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Marcus Morris takes another step in his development and becomes the leader of this Kansas team and a go-to scorer.
His twin brother, Markieff, continues to improve and has a breakout season under the basket.
Tyshawn Taylor puts last season's Facebook drama behind him and hits his outside shot consistently, giving Bill Self an experienced guard who is a reliable scorer. Josh Selby is ruled eligible to play by the NCAA and shows why he was one of the highest-rated freshmen in the nation, scoring at will and playing well beyond his years.
Brady Morningstar continues to be a lock-down defender who is finally a reliable scoring option, while Tyrel Reed continues to hit clutch threes when the team needs him the most.
Outcome
Kansas puts last season's disappointing tournament behind them and is the national champion runner-up.
Worst Case Scenario
It is simply too difficult for the Jayhawks to overcome the losses of Aldrich, Collins and Henry.
This is further impacted by Josh Selby being ruled ineligible by the NCAA, which takes away a dynamic scoring option for Bill Self out of the backcourt.
The other players around Marcus Morris are unable to step-up their games and can’t take some of the pressure off him. Kansas State and Baylor dominate the Big 12 and Kansas gets swept by Missouri.
Outcome
Bill Self and the Jayhawks bow out of the second round of the NCAA tournament.
7. Villanova
7 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Corey Fisher is ready to take over for Scottie Reynolds and shows why many people have listed him as one of the top players in America going into the season.
Corey Stokes is on fire from three all season, but he also matures as a leader for the Wildcats as well as becoming a much more balanced player.
The human blur known as Maalik Wayns pushes the ball early and often and becomes a great complement to the two Coreys. Mouphtaou Yarou builds off last season’s late success and gives Villanova the post presence they were lacking in 2009.
Antonio Pena can now play power forward, thanks to the emergence of Yarou, and flourishes going up against players more his size. JayVaughn Pinkston’s assault allegations are cleared up and don’t affect the talented frosh’s contributions to the team.
Villanova crushes St. Joseph’s and Temple and takes revenge for that embarrassing loss to Syracuse last season.
Outcome
Villanova wins its first national championship since 1985.
Worst Case Scenario
Corey Stokes and Maalik Wayns can’t give Fisher enough support and opposing teams force other players to beat them.
The Wildcats have a tough time replacing the veteran leadership and intangibles that Reynolds brought to the table.
While Yarou’s play is improved, he doesn’t get enough help from Pena, Armwood and Sutton. Inside play is yet again Villanova’s Achilles heal.
Pinkston’s assault allegations cause him to miss significant time. When he gets re-instated, it’s too late for him to catch up.
Jay Wright’s impeccable suits are all ruined in a tragic dry-cleaning accident and Pittsburgh makes a deep tournament run.
Outcome
They get bullied down low in the tournament and go down again in the second round.
8. North Carolina
8 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Larry Drew is another year wiser and more experienced.
This allows him to calmly and steadily lead the Tar Heels' offense and vastly improve his decision making.
Tyler Zeller is able to stay healthy for the full season and establishes himself as a force in the paint. Meanwhile, the 20 pounds John Henson added to his frame helps him make up for last season’s disappointment.
He shows everyone why he was one of the most-heralded incoming recruits last season.
Harrison Barnes takes the ACC by storm and infuses the North Carolina lineup with a dynamic player who can do it all.
Not only do they beat Duke at Cameron, but the Blue Devils suffer a championship hangover and fall short of their repeat hopes.
Outcome
Final Four appearance.
Worst Case Scenario
Tyler Zeller has yet another injury-riddled season.
And 20 pounds isn’t enough to stop John Henson’s slight frame from getting pushed around under the basket.
Harrison Barnes plays well, but the incredibly-lofty expectations take their toll on the youngster. He flames out toward the end of the season.
Larry Drew still can’t limit his bad decisions and the turnovers pile up.
They watch Duke dismantle them in both games and then sit at home while the Blue Devils repeat.
Outcome
They get bounced out of the tournament in the second round.
9. Purdue
9 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Robbie Hummel’s loss hurts, but the fact that Purdue has an entire season to deal with his absence makes a huge difference.
Lewis Jackson comes into the season fully healthy after struggling with a foot injury and regains his patented speed and quickness, which makes him virtually impossible to contain.
E’Twaun Moore takes no prisoners all season long. He not only becomes one of the best perimeter players in the nation on offense, but he picks up the defensive intensity that departed senior Chris Kramer brought to every game.
JaJuan Johnson dominates in the post on both sides of the floor thanks to another 10 pounds he added to his frame this offseason and he continues to step out and hit open jumpers.
Kelsey Barlow is ready to make an impact for the Boilermakers. Not only does his all-around game make life easier on Moore and Johnson, but he also becomes a more consistent scorer.
Freshman Anthony Johnson can’t miss from behind the three-point line and fellow frosh Terone Johnson looks like a young E’Twaun Moore.
Outcome
Purdue wins the national championship.
Worst Case Scenario
Much like it was at the end of last season, the Boilermakers' offense and rebounding aren’t the same without Hummel.
JaJuan Johnson starts to look ahead to the NBA. He decides to showcase his outside game for scouts instead of giving Purdue the defense and rebounding they need inside.
Lewis Jackson still has some lingering concerns about his foot injury and his shooting remains questionable. Kelsey Barlow isn’t quite ready to contribute and doesn’t give the team enough scoring.
E’Twaun Moore and Johnson can’t get much offensive help from their teammates and have a tough time as they try to fight through double-teams all season long.
They lose at home to Tom Crean and Indiana, which propels the Hoosiers to their best season since Eric Gordon and D.J. White were on the team.
Outcome
Sweet 16 exit.
10. Florida
10 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Their upperclassmen-laden starting lineup plays with a poise and chemistry that few other teams in the nation have.
Their undersized backcourt duo of Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton plays bigger than their size and improves upon last season's shooting numbers.
Chandler Parsons builds off last season’s breakout performance. He not only gives the Gators a little bit of everything, but he becomes a reliable No. 1 option, which takes some pressure off Walker and Boynton.
In the paint, Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin crash the boards hard and are able to pick up the team’s scoring load on certain nights.
Their experience wins out over a young Kentucky team and they sweep Coach Cal thanks to two buzzer beaters from Chandler Parsons.
Outcome
Final Four appearance.
Worst Case Scenario
Boynton and Walker struggle with their shots all season long.
Instead of passing, they try to shoot their way out of it.
Now that Chandler Parsons is well known, he finds life more difficult when going up against physical defenders who push him around. Tyus and Macklin continue to be solid players, but neither is able to take over a game.
They don’t give their all on the glass or the defensive side of the ball.
The team gets out to a sluggish start and loses all of their tough early-season games including those against Ohio State, Kansas State and at Xavier.
Outcome
Sweet 16 heartbreak.
11.Syracuse
11 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Kris Joseph is ready to step up.
He not only seamlessly adjusts to the starting lineup, but he also gives the Orange a dominant scoring option from the wing to replace Wesley Johnson.
Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine are able to co-exist in the Syracuse backcourt and improve their scoring as well as their playmaking abilities.
Rick Jackson takes his game to another level in his senior season and provides the team with a physical post player who shows up in big games. Fabricio Melo has an immediate impact on the Orange and shows why he is one of the top prospects of this year's incoming freshmen.
Mookie Jones and Dion Waiters dazzle off the bench and give the Orange a much-needed scoring punch when the starters are getting some rest.
Syracuse makes a statement when they beat Michigan State in early December and surprise the Big East when they topple both Pittsburgh and Villanova in conference play.
Outcome
Final Four appearance.
Worst Case Scenario
The Orange simply aren’t able to replace what Rautins, Johnson, and Onuaku provided the team with last season.
Joseph has a great year, but doesn’t get enough support from the backcourt as Triche and Jardine have trouble playing together.
Rick Jackson misses Onuaku’s presence under the basket. Because Syracuse doesn’t have the shooters they did last season, he sees plenty of double teams.
Fabricio Melo has his share of trouble adjusting to the college game and staying out of foul trouble.
The bench provides little help or rest for the starters, who are forced to play big minutes.
Outcome
Another disappointing tournament loss to a mid-major, but this time in the second round.
12. Gonzaga
12 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Steven Gray and Elias Harris step up their games and become one of the best inside/outside combos in America.
Both players become capable of carrying Gonzaga on a nightly basis and make the Bulldogs a legitimate threat to pull off a deep tournament run.
Inside, Robert Sacre and his 7’0’’, 250-pound frame emerges as one of the best big men in the country. Not only does he batter and bruise opposing centers, he also gives Gonzaga another inside scoring option.
Marquise Carter and Demetri Goodson figure out who will play the point for this team and both guys have productive seasons for Mark Few, They allow the likes of Gray, Harris, and Sacre to shine.
The Bulldogs sweep Saint Mary’s and keep them from a berth in the NCAA tournament.
Outcome
Final Four appearance.
Worst Case Scenario
The Bulldogs find out that they miss Matt Bouldin’s play-making abilities more than they thought they would.
Carter and Goodson have difficulty trying to distribute the ball.
Steven Gray and Harris are the only two players that Gonzaga can count on late in the game. After an entire season of carrying the team, they run out of gas in the tournament.
Sacre has recurring nightmares of Omar Samhan dismantling him in last year's WCC final. He never matures into the inside force the Bulldogs need him to be.
At the end of the day, the talk of Gonzaga’s outside-shooting troubles become more than talk and they struggle mightily from behind the arc.
Outcome
Second-round exit.
13. Kentucky
13 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Somehow John Calipari and Kentucky’s appeal of the NCAA’s ruling on Enes Kanter is successful.
He teams with the other Wildcats super-freshmen to take the SEC by storm, much like a talented group of Kentucky freshmen did last season.
Brandon Knight shows that he’s just about as dynamic as John Wall was last season and Kanter makes everyone forget about DeMarcus Cousins. Darius Miller and DeAndre Liggins provide more than steady veteran presences and also produce on the court.
Kentucky demolishes Louisville on New Year’s Eve and puts the final nail in Bruce Pearl’s coffin, beating the Volunteers twice.
Outcome
National championship runner-up.
Worst Case Scenario
Enes Kanter remains suspended and cannot play for Coach Cal, leaving a huge hole in the paint for the Wildcats.
Brandon Knight is amazing, but struggles with his leadership and decision making, which hurts Kentucky at the end of close games.
Doron Lamb can’t find his shooting stroke for most of the season and Terrence Jones is forced to play out of position because of Kanter’s absence. Simply put, the freshmen play like freshmen and a young Kentucky team is outsmarted by more experienced squads.
Not only does Rick Pitino out-coach Calipari when the two meet on New Year’s Eve. But he does it in that miserable white suit and smiles ear-to-ear when discussing Louisville’s upset in the post-game press conference.
Outcome
Another young Kentucky squad is beaten by less talented but more experienced players, this time in the Sweet 16.
14. Missouri
14 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Mike Anderson’s frenetic pace leaves opposing teams huffing and puffing all season long.
Kim English has a great season shooting the ball and gets enough support from Marcus Denmon and Michael Dixon that he doesn’t have to do it all by himself.
Laurence Bowers takes the next step and becomes a go-to scorer for the Tigers under the basket. Freshman Tony Mitchell is cleared to play and dazzles thanks to his athleticism and great all-around game, taking Missouri to another level.
More than anything, the Missouri bench is able to give Mike Anderson productive minutes and players like Ricardo Ratliffe and Phil Pressey materialize as productive options.
Not only do they sweep Kansas, but Bill Self’s toupee falls off while arguing a traveling call in the last game of the regular season at Missouri.
Outcome
Elite Eight appearance.
Worst Case Scenario
The Tigers get worn out by Anderson’s high-paced style of play and are out of gas by the time the tournament rolls around.
Kim English doesn’t get enough help from the rest of the team and forces up too many shots. Michael Dixon has a hard time adjusting to the starting point guard spot and Phil Pressey isn’t ready as a freshman to take over.
Tony Mitchell isn’t cleared to play, which allows opposing teams to double Laurence Bowers in the post, and he doesn’t fare well with all the extra attention.
Ricardo Ratliffe is forced into a bigger role because of Mitchell’s absence, but he isn’t ready to handle the starting job.
Outcome
Mizzou gets bounced out of the second round.
15. Washington
15 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Isaiah Thomas continues his stellar play and carries the Huskies on both sides of the ball.
Abdul Gaddy, Venoy Overton and Justin Holliday support Thomas and give Lorenzo Romar productive play on the wing.
Matthew Bryan-Amaning takes over for Quincy Pondexter and becomes a force in the low post, both on offense and defense. Aziz N’Diaye adjusts to life in the Pac-10 and gives Washington an intimidating seven-footer who controls the glass and makes life difficult for opposing bigs.
All of the pieces come together for the Huskies. They easily walk all over the Pac-10 and cruise into the tournament.
Outcome
Thomas and Bryan-Amaning have incredible tournaments and the Huskies ride them to the Elite Eight.
Worst Case Scenario
Thomas is great, but he isn’t able to carry the team like Romar hopes.
The Huskies miss Quincy Pondexter’s aggressive play under the basket. While Bryan-Amaning has a solid season, he doesn’t emerge as the leader the team needs him to be.
Gaddy’s shot is still questionable and he hasn’t matured enough from his freshman to sophomore seasons.
Aziz N’Diaye plays adequately against lesser opponents but disappears in big games when Washington needs him the most. This leaves the Huskies vulnerable against teams that pound it inside and force the issue.
The Huskies drop games against UCLA and Washington State, even though both teams are less talented.
Outcome
Second-round exit.
16. Illinois
16 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Demetri McCamey picks up where he left off last season and gives the Illini an explosive scorer and playmaker at the point guard position.
D.J. Richardson is on fire from three all season. Although McCamey gets the headlines, Richardson is almost as good.
Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis are tired of getting pushed around under the basket and use the weight they put on over the summer to help Illinois win the battle under the basket.
Jereme Richmond, who is the first McDonald’s All-American Bruce Weber has brought to Illinois, utilizes his great versatility to make a big impact on the Illini.
Illinois' veteran lineup is clicking on all cylinders early on and it starts the season strong with victories over Texas and Gonzaga. It gets payback for its loss in the 2005 NCAA championship game and beats North Carolina.
Outcome
Demetri McCamey is unconscious in the tournament and carries Illinois all the way to the Final Four.
Worst Case Scenario
The Illinois frontcourt isn’t able to give McCamey and D.J. Richardson enough help.
Furthermore, Davis and Tisdale get bullied in a tough Big Ten and the Illini have trouble competing with teams that have a lot of size up front.
Richmond struggles to give Illinois a shot in the arm and Brandon Paul isn’t able to consistently contribute off the bench. Kansas blows the doors off Assembly Hall and Illinois finishes a distant fifth in the Big Ten.
Outcome
The Illini win their first tournament game in five years. But one is all they get as they go down in the second round to a physical post team.
17. Baylor
17 of 25
Best Case Scenario
LaceDarius Dunn quickly puts his three-game suspension behind him and comes out scorching the nets, hitting every shot in sight.
All the attention focused on Dunn makes A.J. Walton’s transition to the starting point guard spot easy. He combines with freshman Stargell Love to essentially replace Tweety Carter.
Quincy Acy dunks everything in sight and establishes himself as one of the best players in the Big 12, forming an incredibly-tough inside/outside combo with Dunn.
Perry Jones, who is the highest-rated recruit ever signed by Baylor, lives up to the hype and allows the Bears to move on after losing Ekpe Udoh. Anthony Jones starts hitting his outside shots and gives Baylor yet another player on the wing that can make defenses pay.
Baylor out-duels both Kansas and Kansas State for the Big 12 title and Scott Drew’s legend continues to grow in Texas.
Outcome
Riding an unbelievable LaceDarius Dunn hot streak in the tournament, the Bears are the national champion runners-up.
Worst Case Scenario
The controversy surrounding Dunn, combined with his missed practice time, has a negative impact on what should have been a phenomenal season for the senior.
Both Walton and Love can’t do what Tweety Carter did for this team last season, which causes defenses to flock to Dunn in groves. Teams get physical with Acy and realize that, if you keep the guy from catching the ball under the basket, he has a fairly-limited offensive game.
Perry Jones has a roller-coaster season in which he plays just well enough to impress NBA scouts, but not well enough to allow the Bears to flourish. Anthony Jones can’t find his shooting touch, but that doesn’t stop him from jacking up plenty of ill-advised three pointers.
Outcome
Sweet Sixteen exit.
18. Butler
18 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Shelvin Mack builds off his fantastic sophomore season and is ready to be the man for Butler.
He becomes the team’s go-to scorer and is essentially un-guardable, which softens the blow of losing Gordon Hayward to the NBA.
Ronald Nored is his usual pass-first, defensive-minded self and plays his role perfectly.
Matt Howard, whose numbers declined last year because he deferred to Hayward, is ready to end his career at Butler with a bang and is a consistent scorer and rebounder for the Bulldogs all season. He also shaves that hideous moustache, which makes him look like a used car salesman.
Shawn Vanzant is ready to contribute in a big way and makes the most of his minutes, helping to take some of the pressure off the Bulldogs backcourt. Khyle Marshall brings some much-needed athleticism and scoring to the Butler frontcourt and is ready to play from Day 1.
Butler goes into Cameron in early December and, this time, the Bulldogs actually pull of the upset of Duke. Brad Stevens remains happy at Butler and resists the temptation to join a bigger program.
Outcome
Butler streaks all the way to the Elite Eight thanks to Shelvin Mack hitting every shot in sight.
Worst Case Scenario
Butler is no longer under the radar after last season’s trip to the national championship, and they get everyone’s best shot.
The Bulldogs simply can’t replace Gordon Hayward’s multi-faceted and versatile game. Shelvin Mack has a great season, but it’s simply too difficult for him to carry the scoring load.
Matt Howard has a good year in the Horizon League. But when it comes time to go up against some of the bigger and more skilled bigs in the tournament, he falters.
The team suffers a serious hangover from last year's immense success and is not ready to get every teams best shot come tourney time. A year after coming back, Brad Stevens is finally lured away by a big-name school offering big-time money.
Outcome
Butler is upset in the first round.
19. Memphis
19 of 25
Best Case Scenario
The highly-touted freshman class hits the ground running and teams with the talented returning Memphis players to make this team a serious threat.
Joe Jackson starts off fast and never looks back, giving the Tigers an efficient playmaker who is capable of picking up the scoring load.
Meanwhile, Will Barton and Wesley Witherspoon are deadly from the wing. They not only sink their outside shots, but they also attack the basket aggressively and provide matchup problems because of their athleticism and skill sets.
Angel Garcia mixes it up in the post and continues to hit his outside shots, making him pretty much impossible for other power forwards to guard. Will Coleman combines his incredible athleticism and experience from last season to become an extremely productive post player in his senior season.
Josh Pastner continues to act like he’s been a college coach for 30 years and dials up another outstanding recruiting class. He also does a magnificent job of bringing his freshman along, a group that is ready to contribute to a deep tournament run come March.
Outcome
They beat Kentucky and Coach Cal in the Elite Eight and earn a trip to Houston.
Worst Case Scenario
The freshman class, while extremely talented, has trouble playing such a crucial role for a Memphis team that has high expectations coming into this season.
The lack of veteran leadership hurts the Tigers when they’re playing in close games at the end of the season. Meanwhile, Will Barton, Will Coleman and some of the other players on the roster who have NBA prospects are sidetracked by their draft stock and visions of playing professionally.
Josh Pastner doesn’t have the ability to hold everything together. Although the Tigers have a good season, they falter under the pressure of the tournament.
Outcome
Second-round exit at the hands of a more experienced major-conference team.
20. Temple
20 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Juan Fernandez continues to kill teams from beyond the arc and also becomes more of a leader for the Owls.
He teams with Lavoy Allen to make one of the best inside/outside combinations in the country, making life much easier for the rest of the players on the Temple roster. Because of this, Ramone Moore and Rahlir Jefferson see plenty of open looks and have an easy time giving the Owls good production out of their second-tier players.
Micheal Eric comes into his own during his junior season and gives Fran Dunphy another viable low-post scorer and rebounder to play alongside Allen. The Owls get up for their tough non-conference games against Georgetown, Villanova and Duke and are able to show the big boys that they’re not to be taken lightly.
They also pound St. Joseph’s both times they play them and give Phil Martelli a serious case of indigestion.
Outcome
The Owls win the A-10 and advance to the Sweet 16.
Worst Case Scenario
Fernandez keeps hitting his shots, but he doesn’t become a team leader who can guide the Owls through the tough games.
Ramone Moore continues to struggle on defense and is still a liability on that end of the floor.
Because Micheal Eric isn’t able to take the next step, Lavoy Allen gets plenty of attention in the post and is the Owls' only true source of points in the paint.
Jefferson emerges as a solid A-10 player, but he doesn’t have what it takes to give Temple much production against some of the best teams in the nation.
More than anything, the other players besides Fernandez and Moore fail to score enough. Even though they’re one of the best defensive teams in the nation, it’s not enough.
Outcome
Yet another disappointing first-round exit from the tournament.
21. Georgetown
21 of 25
Best Case Scenario
Chris Wright gets off to a hot start and uses his solid shooting touch and play-making ability to frustrate other point guards who try to get in his way.
Austin Freeman has taken control of his diabetes and is a dominant scorer and all-around player for the Hoyas, who takes the pressure off the rest of the starting lineup.
Jason Clark makes another huge leap forward in his junior season and is ready to help Wright and Freeman shoulder the scoring load for Georgetown. Under the basket, Hollis Thompson and Julian Vaughn are ready to hit the glass hard and at least make up for what the departed Greg Monroe did on the glass for this Georgetown team.
The rest of the bigs on the roster are ready to do the dirty work, and guys like Nate Lubick and Moses Abraham are able to give the Hoyas a little help inside.
Outcome
Guard play can be huge in the tournament, and we’ve seen hot-shooting teams make runs in the tournament in years past.
Georgetown rides the hot hands of Wright, Freeman and Clark to an Elite Eight appearance.
Worst Case Scenario
Because of how skilled they are on the perimeter, the Hoyas get into the bad habit of living and dying by the three.
When Wright, Freeman and Clark are on, they can beat anyone in the nation. But when their shots aren’t going down, they have trouble beating even the middle-and-lower part of the pack in the Big East.
Greg Monroe’s loss is not only huge under the basket, where the Hoyas get pushed around in the Big East, but they also miss his ability to direct the offense and rarely, if ever, get good ball movement.
The freshmen take their time coming along and the team’s struggles against Old Dominion become a recurring theme all season long.
The Hoyas get beat down by an always-tough Big East schedule and aren’t able to beat Missouri, Temple, or Memphis early on to pad their tournament resume.
Outcome
The Hoyas miss the tournament and go to the NIT.
22. Texas
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Best Case Scenario
Jordan Hamilton becomes the player everyone thinks he is capable of.
But more than just giving the Longhorns an explosive scorer who can carry the team, he becomes a better leader who plays less selfishly and takes better shots.
Gary Johnson keeps doing his thing around the basket and continues to make up for what he lacks in size with heart.
Rick Barnes figures out who he wants to play at the point and the super-talented freshman, Cory Joseph, is ready to lead this team thanks to his all-around game.
J’Covan Brown establishes himself as Hamilton’s wing man and the two form a great scoring tandem that, when hot, can keep Texas competitive with anyone.
Freshman center Tristan Thompson is ready to give the Longhorns productive minutes in the paint and gives Texas some size up front. Rick Barnes is a much more decisive coach than last season, and this Texas team plays with a chemistry that last year's never achieved.
Texas shocks North Carolina in the middle of December and blows A&M out of the water on both occasions.
Outcome
A Texas team that has finally found some chemistry is clicking on all cylinders come tournament time, and they parlay this into an Elite Eight appearance.
Worst Case Scenario
Rick Barnes can’t figure out whether to play the talented freshman Cory Joseph or the steady veteran Dogus Balbay at the point.
He switches them both around a lot. While it’s not good for either player, it’s especially bad for Joseph’s development, as he loses confidence in the process of being shuffled around.
Hamilton and Brown haven’t matured enough from last season. While they’re both great scorers, they don’t play within the team's offense and continue to jack up ill-advised shots.
Gary Johnson allows himself to be phased out of the offense and, although he has the talent to boost the Longhorns' inside play, he isn’t much of a factor.
Rick Barnes still can’t get this team to play like a team, and they struggle through one of the toughest conferences in the nation.
Outcome
They manage to make the tournament on talent alone, but they go down in the first round for a second straight season.
23. Tennessee
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Best Case Scenario
The whole Bruce Pearl investigation comes and goes with little consequence, and the Volunteers can simply focus on playing basketball.
Their returning trio of Melvin Goins, Scotty Hopson and Cameron Tatum all play up to their potential this season, especially Hopkins, who takes his game to the next level and dominates from the wing.
Senior center Brian Williams builds off his impressive play at the end of last season. He gives Tennessee a bruising big man who controls the boards as well as providing the team with some interior scoring.
Heralded freshman Tobias Harris plays like a man possessed all season and makes Tennessee forget about losing Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism.
In addition to their starters playing great, John Fields gives Tennessee some much-needed depth in the frontcourt, while frosh Trae Golden is lights-out off the bench. The Volunteers beat Memphis and sweep Kentucky and cruise to a somewhat-unlikely SEC title.
Outcome
The Volunteers earn their second-straight Elite Eight appearance.
Worst Case Scenario
Not only does the NCAA conclude that Bruce Pearl and his staff did, indeed, commit recruiting violations, the controversy swirls around the team and is a constant distraction all season long.
In addition, Bruce Pearl finds life extremely difficult without Wayne Chism, J.P. Prince and Bobby Maze, who were three of the team's top scorers a year ago.
Tatum and Goins aren’t able to give Hopson enough help. As a result, the team relies on him too much for scoring.
Brian Williams is great on the boards, but he can’t give Tennessee any scoring inside. Tobias Harris plays well and asserts himself as one of the Vols' best players, but he doesn’t have enough poise for the big games.
Outcome
Tennessee gets bounced out of the first round and we’re subjected to Bruce Pearl painting his chest and showing up to the women’s tournament instead.
24. Virginia Tech
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Best Case Scenario
An extremely experienced team which returns all five starters from last season is ready to play hard and earn the respect of their ACC peers.
Malcolm Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson show why they’re one of the best backcourts in the nation, scoring pretty much at will and carrying the team for long stretches of the season.
Jeff Allen stays out of foul trouble and gives some support to Hudson and Delaney on the inside. Victor Davila’s game continues to come along, and he becomes more than just a big body down low.
Their tough non-conference schedule helps build character. By the time they get into ACC play, their upperclassmen aren’t phased by highly-ranked teams.
Delaney’s magnificent senior season paces the Hokies and he simply can’t be stopped by just one defender.
Outcome
Sweet 16 appearance.
Worst Case Scenario
Allan Chaney’s absence due to a heart condition, coupled with the loss of J.T. Thompson and Cadarian Raines' broken foot, leaves the Hokies woefully shorthanded in the frontcourt.
While Allen is a very good player in the post, Davila fails to up his game, and Virginia Tech struggles against bigger teams. Delaney and Hudson are their usual selves, but the rest of the team isn’t able to pick up the slack if either one has an off shooting night.
Their tough non-conference schedule actually ends up hurting them more than it helps, as they aren’t able to beat any of the tougher teams they scheduled.
Not only that, the Virginia Tech bench doesn’t give them much help either, and their starters are stuck with carrying most of the load all season. The Hokies aren’t able to compete with the blue-bloods of the ACC and get matched up with a big physical team in the first round.
Outcome
First-round exit.
25. Wisconsin
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Best Case Scenario
Jon Leuer is ready to assume his role as the leader of this Wisconsin team.
He uses his sweet jumper to give the Badgers a consistent scorer. He teams with fellow big, Keaton Nankivil, to make one of the best shooting frontcourts in the country, but they also play big in the paint.
Jordan Taylor is ready to build off last season's success. He matures into a dynamic playmaker in the Badgers backcourt, not only giving them a capable floor general, but also another proven scorer.
Meanwhile, Tim Jarmusz plays his usual hard-nosed defense on the perimeter and is able to hit his shots from deep.
Rob Wilson’s shot becomes consistent and he plays enough defense to earn Bo Ryan’s trust. Josh Gasser plays well beyond his years and gives Wisconsin a deadly scoring threat off the bench.
The Badgers continue to protect their home court and, once again, contend for a Big Ten title.
Outcome
On the heels of their patented defense and some hot shooting by Leuer, the Badgers dance all the way to the Sweet 16 before bowing out.
Worst Case Scenario
After Leuer, Taylor and Nankivil, the Badgers are able to find few contributions on the offensive end of the floor.
Leuer and Nankivil aren’t willing to bang under the basket and prefer to stay outside, which hurts Wisconsin on both offense and defense.
Guys who need to step up like Jarmusz, Wilson and their class of incoming freshman are slow to pick everything up, leaving the team’s big three to try and hold things together for most of the season.
Coach Bo Ryan decides it’s a good idea to break out the Soulja Boy again and loses the respect of his players, making life very difficult.
Outcome
Wisconsin takes its lumps in the tough Big Ten and finishes in a distant fifth place. They’re able to extend their streak of tournament bids, but they get dropped in the first round.
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