2010-11 SEC Basketball Preview: Is Kentucky Still The Beast of The SEC East?
Last year, the Kentucky Wildcats were the kings of the southeastern conference for the first time since 2005. After winning 19 in a row to begin the season, it appeared that the 'Cats were more than merely "back." As a matter of fact, it appeared that Kentucky was ready to erase the futility of the last four-plus seasons with an NCAA Finals appearance.
Behind new head coach, John Calipari and an unbelievable recruiting class, the Wildcats didn't fall below No. 5 all season. It was not to be for Coach Cal's first team in Lexington as the team lost its third and final game of the season in the regional finals against West Virginia.
Now, as is the case with most of Calipari's teams, the majority of that stellar class was one and done. Five Kentucky players went in the first round of the NBA draft. Four of the five were freshmen.
Replacing those four incredible, young players in 2010 will be four new incredible young players. Led by guard Brandon Knight, Kentucky will, once again, be in the top third of the SEC.
This time around, however, the teams behind the 'Cats have caught up with the beasts of the east.
As bad as the SEC east has been in football this season, SEC east basketball will carry the league for a third straight season.
Here's more of what you can expect to see in the 2010-11 SEC Basketball season.
SEC East Projections
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| 1. | Florida | The Gators are back. After barely getting into the Big Dance last season, after two straight NIT appearances which were preceded by two straight NCAA championships, the Gators and their fans will not have to sweat on selection Sunday this year. All five starters return from a team that won 21 games in '09-10. An incredible freshman class led by 6'9 forward Patric Young will contribute to Billy Donovan's best team since 2007. |
| 2. | Kentucky | The Wildcats lost four starters and a key substitute to the first round of the NBA draft. Now, after having re-stocked the cupboard, coach Calipari is ready to take the east by storm yet again. It will be a little harder in 2010-11 as John Wall could not be cloned. Freshman Brandon Knight will fill some of the void left behind by Wall, but big man DeMarcus Cousins will be most missed. With the loss of highly regarded signee and big man, Enes Kanter, it will be that much harder for the Wildcats to defend their SEC crown. |
| 3. | Tennessee | The Vols had a rocky offseason, followed by a rocky exhibition loss to Division-Two, Indianapolis. From the outside looking in, it would appear that this team has a long season ahead of it. But this Tennessee team is just too talented to fall flat on its face in 2010-11. Led freshman power forward Tobias Harris, this Tennessee team could easily duplicate its 25-plus wins of a year ago. The Vols will need junior Scotty Hopson to finally step-up and realize his potential for Tennessee to reach it's full potential. |
| 4. | Georgia | After overachieving by finishing just three games under .500 under new head coach, Mark Fox, the 'Dawgs have high hopes with two legit NBA prospects returning to this much improved Georgia team. Star forward Trey Thompkins, recently suffered a severe high ankle sprain that could have him out for quite some time. In his absence, Georgia will depend on fellow-backcourt member, Travis Leslie to take up the slack. If Thompkins is back by the SEC portion of the schedule, Georgia will be right in the thick of the division race by February. |
| 5. | Vanderbilt | After losing AJ Ogilvy and sharpshooter Jermaine Beal, Vanderbilt will likely take a slight step back this season. Junior forward Jeffery Taylor leads a veteran team that could very well surprise the pundits if head coach Kevin Stallings can push the right buttons early. |
| 6. | South Carolina | The Gamecocks lost its two most productive players from a season ago. Senior forward, Sam Muldrow will do what he can to keep South Carolina in games, but it's going to be a long season in Columbia. |
SEC West Projections
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| 1. | Mississippi State | The Bulldogs basically won the west by default last season. It was a rocky regular season for the entire SEC west, but Mississippi State did enough to prove it was the best of the worst. It was a couple of seconds away from beating Kentucky in the SEC tournament final before Kentucky won the game in overtime. Gone is big man Jarvis Varnado, but 6'10" sophomore Renardo Sidney will be ready to go by mid-December and should help the Bulldogs secure a spot in the big dance, as well as, making the SEC west a much more competitive division. |
| 2. | Ole Miss | After an NIT Semi-final run last season, the Rebels are ready to challenge Mississippi State for the west title. There is not a huge difference between the teams, but point guard Chris Warren is one of the best at his position in the SEC. Terrico White, Murphy Holloway and Eniel Polynice accounted for 35 ppg and will all have to be replaced, but with Warren at the helm of the offense, Ole Miss is in good hands. |
| 3. | Alabama | Things didn't go as well as hoped for first year head coach Anthony Grant last season. But the Tide did win more games than they lost. At 17-15, Grant got all he could out of of his team. This season, he can expect to get a little more out of it, although it still may not be enough to get the Tide to the big dance. Led by junior forward JaMychal Green, Alabama could be ready to take the next step and become a contender for the west. Although Grant's second season will be better than his first, an NIT berth is about all the Tide faithful can hope for. |
| 4. | Arkansas | Most consider this a make or break season for Hogs coach, John Pelphrey. The roster is stronger and deeper than it was in last year's disastrous 14-18 season. Will it perform vastly better? That's the million dollar question in Razorback land. Arkansas should be deadly from three-point distance and leading scorer/guard Rotnei Clarke will do his part to make sure the Razorbacks contend in the west. The NIT is certainty for the Razorbacks, and if Pelphrey gets everything he can out of his team, Arkansas could, indeed, win the west in 2010-11. |
| 5. | LSU | Head coach, Trent Johnson is building at LSU. The Tigers roster is full of untapped potential. If Bo Spencer and Storm Warren, who account for nearly 26 ppg for the Tigers, can continue their production and Aaron Dotson can begin to live up to his hype, LSU could very well finish above .500 this season. |
| 6. | Auburn | Auburn had a senior-laden team last season that couldn't even finish above .500. As a result, head coach Jeff Lebo was fired following the team's loss in the SEC tournament. New head coach, Tony Barbee has his work cut out for him. For Tigers fans, be patient. Rebuilding Auburn will be a major undertaking. |
| 1. | Mississippi State | |
| 2. | Ole Miss | |
| 3. | Alabama | |
| 4. | Arkansas | |
| 5. | LSU | |
| 6. | Auburn |
Team To Beat: Florida Gators
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Billy Donovan was building quite the juggernaut in Gainesville until the Gators lost a ton of talent to the NBA draft after winning two national titles in a row. The drop-off was drastic. From back-to-back championships to back-to-back NIT appearances, Florida had fallen on hard times.
After making the field of 65 by the skin of their teeth last season, Florida seemed to be on the verge of going back to the future. Granted, last season's Gators lacked the depth necessary to make a deep run in the tournament, but that's not the case this season.
All five starters return from last year's 21-win team along with an infusion of talented young recruits that should take Florida to its first conference championship since 2007 and back to the NCAA tournament for a second consecutive year.
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Coach Of The Year: Billy Donovan
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It took him a couple of years, but Donovan finally has a team that will, again, be able to win the SEC and potentially make a deep run in the NCAA tournament in March.
With returning starters Kenny Boynton, Vernon Macklin, Chandler Parsons, Alex Tyus and Erving Walker, as well as, highly touted incoming freshman big man, Patric Young, Florida will be a force to be reckoned with in 2010-11.
Donovan has the personnel to compete for a full 40 minutes again. That's basically placing a loaded-weapon in the hands of a skilled marksman.
Impact Freshman: Brandon Knight, Kentucky
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The next in coach Cal's line of one-and-done guards is Brandon Knight. Everywhere you look for information on Knight you'll see comparison's to John Wall and Derrick Rose, albeit with one caveat. According to rivals.com, he's not a "freak athlete" like either of those two. Even Calipari admitted to Athlon Sports, "He's probably not as athletic as those guys, though he is athletic."
Knight may not be as athletic, but the consensus is that he is an incredible shooter, a great ball-handler and, according to Rivals, an elite defender.
No wonder he was ranked as the No. 6 recruit in the country.
Given the past success that Calipari has had with these one-and-done guards, there's reason to be confident that Knight will be in the "College Basketball Player of the Year" conversation before long.
League MVP: Trey Thompkins, Georgia
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Chances are you'll see this prediction played out whether Thompkins is on the court for much of the season or not.
Trey Thompkins is a game-changer. His talents are probably the difference between Georgia making the NCAA tournament as an at-large selection or not making it at all. If that doesn't prove value what does? Thompkins is the straw the stirs the drink in Athens.
With the recent severe high-ankle sprain that he suffered in an exhibition game, fans are likely to see two different Georgia teams in 2010-11. At this point, no one knows how much time Thompkins will miss. Although, this sort of injury could linger for a while, it would be a shocker if Thompkins isn't back by the time conference play begins in January.
If the 'Dawgs can navigate a fairly easy non-conference slate with less than two losses, you could see a very different and even better team once Thompkins is back at full strength. If the injury becomes a nagging problem, you'll see just how valuable Thompkins' presence really is to this 'Dawgs team.
Most Improved Player: Scotty Hopson, Tennessee
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If Tennessee wants to continue competing at an elite level, Scotty Hopson will have to be the most improved player in the conference. Hopson came in as Pearl's first potential one-and-done player. Now, entering his junior season, Hopson has yet to live up to anything resembling an NBA prospect.
The potential is there for Hopson to be the SEC's best player. It's just that his potential has not translated to overwhelming success on the court yet.
Hopson's biggest critique has been his timidity with the ball. He doesn't assert himself at all. He lacks the killer instinct that is needed at this and the next level.
But now, it's put-up-or-shutup time for the junior guard. If Hopson realizes some of that enormous potential this season, Tennessee will compete for the SEC title. If not, Tennessee's exhibition loss to division-two Indianapolis, in which Hopson fouled-out in only nine minutes of play, will prove to be just the beginning of a very trying season in Knoxville—on and off the court.
Player Who Will Get Drafted First: Travis Leslie, Georgia
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Perhaps the most physically gifted athlete in the conference, junior swingman Travis Leslie, improved by leaps and bounds from his freshman to his sophomore season last year.
Leslie is an incredible leaper and is, by far, the best dunker in the conference.
If Leslie can better establish a perimeter game this season, he will enter the draft as one of the more coveted players available.
Look for Leslie to separate himself as one of the SEC's best while Trey Thompkins is out. And when the preseason league MVP is back, Leslie will become an even greater threat. If the two can lead the 'Dawgs to the NCAA tournament, Leslie could become a household name when it counts—in March.
Most Underrated Player: Chris Warren, Ole Miss
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At 5'10", Ole Miss point guard, Chris Warren may not be in the conversation as a potential NBA prospect, but his skills on the SEC hardwood cannot be ignored. Warren returned last year after a knee injury in his sophomore season to lead Ole Miss scorers with 17 points per game.
He started all 35 games and averaged 32 minutes per game as the Rebels' heart and soul. Ole Miss was inconsistent for much of last season, but that wasn't Warren's fault.
While it might be borderline idiocy to refer to a preseason first team, All-SEC point guard as "underrated," you will not hear Chris Warren's name mentioned among the best guards in the country. You'll be hard pressed to hear any mentions of Warren anywhere but Ole Miss telecasts.
But all Warren will do is lead his team in every statistical category and be the difference in Ole Miss competing for the SEC west's top spot.
Key Questions
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What will Kentucky do for an encore?
A 35-3 record last season was not good enough to even get Kentucky to the Final Four. Now, with five NBA first rounders gone, what will success in coach John Calipari's second year in Lexington mean? The roster is reloaded with fresh talent yet again. But will it be good enough to keep up with Florida?
What effect will the off-court compliance issues have on Bruce Pearl and his Vols?
It appears that there will not be an NCAA ruling on the Pearl dishonesty scandal until spring/summer of 2011. So, for now, it looks like the Vols' season won't be interrupted by the ruling, a la Auburn football with Cam Newton. Granted, the issues are completely different, but no one wants the distraction of dealing with NCAA penalties while trying to win the SEC.
Will the hype surrounding Florida be justified with a Gators SEC title?
Time will tell, but with all five starters back and added depth on the bench, Florida could very well end up as one of the top teams in the country. If it all comes together, there's no question that Florida can and will win the SEC.
Will Georgia compete despite Trey Thompkins potentially missing significant time?
Absolutely. If Thompkins misses all of non-conference play, the 'Dawgs biggest challenge will be Georgia Tech. The 'Dawgs play Notre Dame in the opener of the Old Spice Classic tournament, as well. If Georgia handles both tests well, look out for the 'Dawgs come January when conference play begins.
Will the SEC west get a team in the NCAA tournament this year?
It should. Mississippi State will be pretty strong once Renardo Sidney becomes eligible in December. Ole Miss has some playmakers led by one of the best guards in the SEC, Chris Warren. Arkansas and Alabama have potential and could make some noise as well. The Bulldogs are the best bet to make the field of 68, but one team out of Ole Miss, Arkansas and Alabama could have a shot as well.
How many SEC east teams will make the field of 68?
Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee are locks to make the tournament. Georgia and Vanderbilt are possibilities to make it in as well. Depending on how Georgia handles Trey Thompkins' absence, the 'Dawgs could wind up as one of the top teams in the east. Vanderbilt still has some playmakers but must replace their top two scorers, AJ Ogilvy and Jermaine Beal, from a season ago.
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