College Hoops 2010-11 Predictions: 10 Non-Tournament Teams That Will Be Dancing!
Selection Sunday is the "Tale of Two Cities" of the College Basketball Season: It is the best of times, it is the worst of times.
With some schools, unexpected celebrations break out because their team somehow, someway is chosen for the NCAA Tournament. They're going to "The Dance."
With other schools, it's not exactly a party: Bubbles finally burst, dreams come to an end and the second-guessing begins—they aren't "in" and they won't be chosen on anyone's bracket.
Some of these disappointed teams go on and play in the NIT (National Invitation Tournament) or even the CBI (College Basketball Invitational).
The following 10 teams experienced the bitter agony of last year's Selection Sunday...but this year, they will be dancin'.
10. Wichita State
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Wichita State's 2009-10 Record: 25-10, 12-6 (Missouri Valley Conference)
2009-10 postseason: NIT
Coach: Gregg Marshall (53-47 at Wichita State, 247-130 overall)
Top Returning Players: Toure’ Murry, junior, guard, 11.9 ppg; Graham Hatch, senior, guard, 9.2 ppg; J.T. Durley, senior, forward, 11.2 ppg; Garrett Stutz, junior, center, 7.8 ppg.
It's hard to imagine that a Division I team could win 25 games and not make the NCAA Tournament—that's exactly what the Shockers and their fans thought last year.
While losing Clevin Hannah (leading scorer, best shooter and point guard) is big, they return almost everyone else who made a significant contribution to last year's big season. Because of this depth of talent, Marshall can use lots of different combinations and lineups.
The team is anchored by J.T. Durley and 7'0" senior center Garrett Stutz. Murry, a 6'5" guard, is WSU's leading returning scorer and also earned a spot on the Missouri Valley Conference's All-Defensive Team
Wichita State is a near-unanimous pick to win the Missouri Valley Conference title this season
They have been to two consecutive postseason tournaments. Neither of those have been to the NCAA Tournament (2008-09 CBI, 2009-10 NIT) but that is the next step that Marshall's Wichita State Shockers will take this year.
9. Arizona
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Arizona’s 2009-10 Record: 16-15, 10-8 (Pac-10)
2009-10 postseason: None
Coach: Sean Miller (16-15 at Arizona, 136-62 overall)
Top Returning Players: Derrick Williams, sophomore, forward, 15.7 ppg; Kyle Fogg, junior, guard, 11.1 ppg; Jamelle Horne, senior, forward, 9.4 ppg; Solomon Hill, sophomore, forward, 6.7 ppg; Lamont Jones, sophomore, guard, 6.6 ppg; Kevin Parrom, sophomore, forward, 4.6 ppg.
The rebuilding of the basketball program at the University of Arizona went through phase one last season. Getting a new coach (Sean Miller) along with an almost-new team (five freshmen played significant minutes) led to the end of a run of 25 consecutive years in which Arizona played in the NCAA Tournament.
Nic Wise's departure will hurt. The good news is that Derrick Williams, a freshman All-American and the Pac-10 Freshman Player of the Year, returns to wreak havoc on the rest of the conference. Kyle Fogg is ready to have a breakout season.
Horne, Hill, Jones and Parrom fill out a Wildcat rotation that has as much depth as any in the conference. Arizona’s hope for a true center is sophomore Kyryl Natyazhko, who is coming off an excellent summer playing with the Ukrainian team at the Under-20 European Championship.
Miller and his staff pulled in another talented recruiting class that will contribute immediately.
Sean Miller knows how to win. His Xavier Musketeer teams won an average of 24 games a year and played in the NCAA Tournament four of his five years there.
As the Wildcats continue to develop this season, they will be a team to contend with come tournament time.
8. Illinois
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Illinois’ 2009-10 Record: 21-15, 10-8 (Big-10)
2009-10 postseason: NIT
Coach: Bruce Weber (278-126 overall, 175-72 in Big Ten)
Top Returning Players: Demetri McCamey, senior, guard, 15.1 ppg; D.J. Richardson, sophomore, guard, 10.5 ppg; Bill Cole, senior, forward, 4.4 ppg; Mike Davis, senior, forward, 10.7 ppg; Mike Tisdale, senior, center, 11.9 ppg.
Illinois head coach Bruce Weber brings back a very experienced bunch that, by many people's estimation, under-performed last season. After losing two role players to graduation and a little-used reserve to transfer, the Fighting Illini feature one of the deepest teams in the country.
Demetri McCamey and Mike Davis tested the NBA waters, but both withdrew and will be back on campus in Champaign-Urbana.
McCamey was First-Team All-Big Ten last year and is a Wooden Award Preseason Top 50 selction this year. He was the Fighting Illini's leading scorer (10th in the Big Ten). He also led the Big Ten and ranked second in the nation in assists with a school-record average of 7.1 apg; McCamey may be the best-kept secret in the Big Ten.
Davis is a talented frontcourt player. Even though he struggled with consistency, Davis was nearly a double-double guy, averaging 10.7 points and 9.2 rebounds per contest.
Tisdale is a slender but versatile seven-footer who can step out away from the basket and hit the mid-range jumper.
While competing with Michigan State, Ohio State and Purdue for the Big Ten title might not be likely, the Fighting Illini should fight for an at-large bid and be back in the Dance.
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7. Dayton
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Dayton's 2009-10 Record: 25-12, 8-8 (Atlantic 10)
2009-10 postseason: NIT
Coach: Brian Gregory (150-80 at Dayton, 150-80 overall)
Top Returning Players: Chris Wright, senior, forward, 13.7 ppg; Chris Johnson, junior, forward, 11.9 ppg; Paul Williams, junior, guard, 5.6 ppg; Devin Searcy, senior, center, 3.9 ppg.
While no one likes to be left out of The Dance, the Dayton Flyers made the most of last year's Selection Sunday snubbing: They went on to beat North Carolina for the NIT championship.
Last season, the Flyers got out of the gate fast and were doing great. They finished their pre-Atlantic 10 schedule with an 11-3 record. However, they proceeded to play .500 ball in conference, and then lost to Xavier in the opening round of the A-10 tourney.
That was when things turned for the better. Gregory's Flyers beat an impressive list of teams (Illinois State, Cincinnati, Illinois and Mississippi) on their way to facing the Tar Heels in Madison Square Garden for the NIT Championship. They beat UNC handily for Dayton's third NIT title in school history.
Johnson, named the NIT's Most Outstanding Player, is a dynamic scorer who can shoot from distance.
Wright has been a star since day one at Dayton. A First Team All-Atlantic 10 selection, he led the Flyers in scoring (13.7 ppg), rebounds (7.3 rpg) and blocks (1.4 bpg) last season. Gregory is hoping that he is saving his best season for last.
Challenging Xavier or Temple for the A-10 title may be a stretch, but the Flyers, with a nice collection of newcomers, look to be more than ready to get back into the NCAA Tournament again.
6. Virginia Tech
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Virginia Tech's 2009-10 Record: 25-9, 10-6 (ACC)
2009-10 postseason: NIT
Coach: Seth Greenberg (132-94 at Virginia Tech, 345-264 overall)
Top Returning Players: Malcolm Delaney, senior, guard, 20.2 ppg; Dorenzo Hudson, senior, guard, 15.2 ppg; Terrell Bell, senior, guard, 6.1 ppg; Jeff Allen, senior, forward, 12.0 ppg; Victor Davila, junior, forward, 5.3 ppg.
The good news is Virginia Tech is in the mix of things pretty much every year. But for four of his six years in Blacksburg, and three years in a row, Seth Greenberg's Hokies have gone to the NIT.
Despite a 23-8 record heading into the postseason, they were left out of The Dance again last year due to their cupcake non-conference schedule. Greenberg has addressed the schedule issues, and returns last season's top 10 scorers.
Malcolm Delaney and Dorenzo Hudson form a dynamic senior backcourt. They combined to average over 35 points per game last season. Delaney may be one of the ACC’s best players this upcoming season, and that's no small feat.
Allen is another productive scorer and a beast on the glass, averaging 7.4 rebounds per game last year. He also led the team in steals (2.2 spg) and blocks (1.2 bpg).
Greenberg is hoping that 6'9" Florida transfer Allan Chaney will bring more help to the frontcourt.
Virginia Tech will be in the mix at the top of the ACC. Who knows—they could even hand the Blue Devils a Blacksburg surprise. This will be the year that the Hokies break their NIT streak and get back to the Dance.
5. Memphis
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Memphis' 2009-10 Record: 24-10, 13-3 (Conference USA)
Coach: Josh Pastner (24-10 at Memphis, 24-10 overall)
Top Returning Players: Wesley Witherspoon, junior, forward, 12.5 ppg; Will Coleman, senior, forward, 7.4 ppg; Angel Garcia, junior, forward, 6.8 ppg.
How is it possible to lose your top four backcourt players and be in better shape? If you are Memphis coach Josh Pastner, you sign two of the top high school guards in the country (PG Joe Jackson and SG Will Barton).
Heading into his second year as a Division I head coach, 33 year-old Pastner has to like the way things look. Witherspoon should be able to move back to his natural SF position. At 6'9", he creates matchup nightmares for his opponents.
Last season, Coleman (6'9", 245 pounds) became Memphis' best rebounder (6.2 rpg) and interior defender.
Garcia, a true "big" (6'11", 245 pounds), was out for all but 12 games last season. But in those dozen contests, he demonstrated valuable interior skills that the Tigers will gladly welcome back.
Along with this huge and talented frontcourt, Pastner may have one of the best guard tandems, bar none. Jackson is a local, a big-time scorer and a floor leader. At 6'6", Barton can put the ball in the basket from every angle and every distance.
To put it all in perspective, FoxSports.com's Jeff Goodman says that the Tigers could have more talent than they ever had in the John Calipari era. Wow!
Look out Conference USA! Look out NCAA! Memphis is back!
4. UCLA
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UCLA's 2009-10 Record: 14-18, 8-10 (Pac-10)
2009-10 postseason: None
Coach: Ben Howland (166-72 at UCLA, 334-171 overall)
Top Returning Players: Malcolm Lee, junior, guard, 12.1 ppg; Reeves Nelson, sophomore, forward, 11.1 ppg; Tyler Honeycutt, sophomore, forward, 7.2 ppg; Jerime Anderson, junior, guard, 5.8 ppg.
If coach Ben Howland could get his hands on a "Men In Black" neuralyser, he would use it to wipe every human's memory of what they saw last year. The Bruins were not good. They lost to Cal-State Fullerton at Pauley Pavillion, for crying out loud.
Uncharacteristic for a Howland-coached team, last year's Bruins were consistently beat on the glass and were not good defensively. While UCLA still is not ready to dominate like they did the previous four years, they will demonstrate that they are much better than they played a year ago.
Lee is a pure scorer who was forced into playing PG much of last season. If Anderson or one of the newcomers step in to play effectively at the point, Lee will be able to focus on what he does best: putting the ball in the hole.
The play of either or both of two freshmen centers—Anthony Stover (who red-shirted last season) and Joshua Smith (a McDonald’s All-American)—could enable Nelson, a strong PF, to play at the high post and to keep Honeycutt mostly on the wing.
Howland is too good of a coach, and there is too much talent here, for the Bruins to give a repeat performance of last season. If everyone stays healthy, UCLA should compete at the top end of the Pac-10, and return to The Dance.
3. Mississippi State
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Mississippi State's 2009-10 Record: 24-12, 9-7 (SEC)
2009-10 postseason: NIT
Coach: Rick Stansbury (256-138 at Mississippi State, 256-138 overall)
Top Returning Players: Dee Bost, senior, guard, 13.0 ppg; Ravern Johnson, senior, guard/forward, 13.2 ppg: Kodi Augustus, senior, forward, 8.9 ppg.
If there had been a sympathy vote taken on last year's Selection Sunday, Rick Stansbury would have won hands down.
Mississippi State was blown away when they didn’t make the NCAA Tournament. They finished 9-7 in the SEC, 22-11 overall, and tied with Ole Miss for the West Division championship. The Bulldogs lost two heartbreaking games in overtime to Kentucky and went 3-7 in games decided by five points or less.
Bost is a versatile, do-it-all player, who, when he is eligible (declared for the NBA draft, and then didn't withdraw by the deadline), will run the show. Johnson, 6'7", is a marksman, and shot 40.7 percent from three-point range last year.
While the Bulldogs lost double-double PF Jarvis Varnado, Mississippi State will be getting some big-time help. McDonald’s All-American forward Renardo Sidney will finally be eligible after sitting out all of last year and the first nine games of this season. If he gets into Division I game-shape, Sidney could be a force in SEC basketball.
The Bulldogs are the favorite to be on top of the SEC West. Stansbury has to believe that will be enough to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament this time.
2. Seton Hall
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Seton Hall's 2009-10 Record: 19-13, 9-9 (Big East)
2009-10 postseason: NIT
Coach: Kevin Willard (First year at Seton Hall, 45-49 overall)
Top Returning Players: Jeremy Hazell, senior, guard, 20.4 ppg; Jeff Robinson, senior, forward, 12.2 ppg; Herb Pope, junior, forward, 11.5 ppg; Jordan Theodore, junior, guard, 9.2 ppg.
The last four years have been tough at Seton Hall. The Pirates have not finished above 10th place in the 16-team Big East and have reached the postseason just once—last year's NIT bid.
So long, Bobby Gonzalez....Hello, coach Kevin Willard!
Willard, a Rick Pitino disciple, could not have stepped into much of a better situation after leading Iona to a 21-10 record last season. The Pirates return three (almost four) double-figure scorers from last year's squad.
Hazell, a guard with size (6'5"), recorded his second straight season with an average of more than 20 points per game. He finished third last year in the Big East in scoring.
At 6'6", Robinson may be a little undersized for a power forward, but he is tough and has no problem scoring in the paint.
Pope led the Big East with 10.7 rebounds per game.
A key newcomer to the program is Eniel Polynice. The 6'5" senior is eligible to play immediately after graduating from Mississippi. Polynice started 25 games for the Rebels last season, averaging 8.8 ppg, 4.1 rpg and 3.9 apg.
The pieces are all there for Seton Hall to bust through the barrier that has kept them out of the NCAA Tournament. Willard will have the chance to be a first-year hero if he and the Pirates can pull it off.
1. North Carolina
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North Carolina's 2009-10 Record: 20-17, 5-11
2009-10 postseason: NIT
Coach: Roy Williams (196-53 at North Carolina, 614-155 overall)
Top Returning Players: Tyler Zeller, junior, forward, 9.3 ppg; Larry Drew II, junior, guard, 8.5 ppg; John Henson, sophomore, forward, 5.7 ppg.
Few college programs in any sport have the legacy that the North Carolina Tar Heels men's basketball program possesses. They have made 41 NCAA Tournament appearances, participated in a record 18 NCAA Final Fours, and won five NCAA championships.
All of that meant absolutely nothing last season as Roy Williams’ squad finished their regular season with a 16-15 record and lost in the first round of the ACC Tournament.
The Tar Heels did not receive an NCAA tournament bid, and instead accepted a bid to the NIT. Even there, UNC finished with a disappointing loss in the championship game to the Dayton Flyers.
Drew II, Henson and Zeller form a more-than-solid returning core. Henson has the most upside of the three. He is a Wooden Award Preseason Top 50 nominee who is ready for a breakout year for Roy Williams.
The better news is the recruiting class that Williams brought in for the upcoming season.
Before officially stepping on the court at the Dean Smith Center, Harrison Barnes is winning accolades. He was named an AP Preseason All-American, becoming the first freshman to be selected since voting began before the 1986-87 season. A long, athletic wing, Barnes can do it all.
The other elite-level Tar Heel recruit is Reggie Bullock. As a 6'7" shooting guard, Bullock can easily shoot over defenders, and he can cause problems as he guards his smaller opponents.
UNC may not be ready to return to the Final Four yet, but they will definitely be dancing come Selection Sunday.
Who Will Miss the Dance This Year?
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Jim Calhoun and other coaches may need to do a little more than pray if they want their team to avoid the "Selection Sunday snub" again this year.
Connecticut is definitely a team that may not make The Dance...again
Others that may be on the outside looking in are:
Arizona State
Mississippi
Rhode Island
Kent State
UAB
Nevada
Northwestern
Tulsa
South Florida
And the journey to Houston begins!
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