Chase Trio Tackles the Texas Test In First of Final Three

Three attempts, three drivers, three strategies and one goal to win the 2010 Nascar Sprint Cup Championship is all that is left of the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson leads the point standings by the fewest points he has yet had in a race for the title.  Denny Hamlin is close on his heels, just 14 points behind, followed by Kevin Harvick, who is 38 points down.

Johnson has been playing the safe card when he doesn't qualify at the front.  He tries to avoid trouble by finding a place to lay back until his crew chief, Chad Knaus, tells him it is time to go.  Like magic, Johnson puts it on cruise and heads to the front hoping no harm will come his way on the journey.

Hamlin tried the protectionist theory at Talladega, but found himself a lap down in 30th place with 50 laps to go.  He said, "I didn't get to race as hard as I would have liked."  Lagging proved to be detrimental, but he caught the lucky dog break and actually made it to the lead before the Talladega shuffle got the best of him.

Johnson was 20th, followed by Jeff Gordon with 15 laps to go and and Knaus said, "Do it now, let's go."  Four laps later Johnson led as Gordon pushed him, but Gordon claimed his engine was failing and dropped back. 

Harvick was in a dog fight at Talladega and will continue that type of driving for the next three races.  He is going to fight his way to the front, no holding back for him.  The RCR mojo seems to be at play and he may just be the one driver who can take out Johnson for the title.

After the Halloween race, Knaus said, "Now it's on."  The 48 team faces a finale unlike they have in the past in that Johnson is going to have to race the entire race at Texas and probably Phoenix and Homestead as well.  He can't afford to play that safe card like he has.

Hamlin is good at making predictions, and sometimes they turn out just as planned.  Overthinking may just be the Achilles heel for Hamlin in these final three races.  He has to confront a street fighter, Harvick, and the consummate closer, Johnson, on the tracks that lead to the title.

At Texas Motor Speedway for the AAA Texas 500, Johnson would be considered the favorite of the three to win or at least finish highest based on history.  The game is different this time, with so many hungry drivers with nothing to lose.

Spoilers could play a huge part in the compact point factor of the three points leaders.  One accident, one pit miscue, one parts failure could radically change the standings.

Johnson has a 10.1 average finish at TMS with one win, seven top-fives and 10 top-10 finishes.  Hamlin has a 9.6 average finish at TMS with one win, four-top-fives and seven top-10's.  Harvick has not won at the Texas track, but has a 12.9 average finish, three top-fives and seven top-10 finishes.

The three drivers compare pretty evenly at Texas, but Johnson has a better overall average finish at intermediate tracks, which seem to play to his style of driving.

At Texas Motor Speedway, expect an old-fashioned Texas brawl.  The three different personalities who are leading the chase for the title may have to change their strategies and duke it out, for better or worse.