BCS Title Game Preview: Who Will Play an SEC Team for the Title

College football is so great, because every game in the regular season counts, unless it is a SEC or Big 12 team or Ohio State or USC. Then almost every game counts, but some exceptions are allowed. For everyone else, to get into the BCS title game, one must win every game and then in some cases get help.

The title game picture looks clear now, as Oregon would face Auburn in an offensive wet dream match-up. Of course that won't happen, because one or both of them will slip up, leading to chaos and confusion and probably a very mediocre title game.

Before I analyze the 11 teams that still have a shot at the title game, I want to point out the genius of the BCS structure, the best system possible to pick the two title game combatants. None of my 11 teams that have a chance are Missouri, yet only one of the computers used in BCS rankings has Mizzou ranked at 11. The rest have them ranked between three and five, even after a pretty decisive loss yesterday.

Losses build character for Big 12 teams. Keep in mind that Missouri has one road win, and although its win against Oklahoma was impressive, nobody in the country believes it is No. 3 or No. 4. In the Jeff Sagarin ratings, Missouri is No. 3, Michigan St is No. 9, Boise State is No. 13 and Alabama is No. 17. A human would have his vote taken away for this irrationality. Iowa is No. 15, even though it is still scoring touchdowns against Michigan State. Missouri has no shot because its best remaining opponent is Iowa State.

Teams That Could Make the BCS Title Game

11. Ohio State - Only on the list because it's Ohio State.  Normally the Buckeyes would get some voter favoritism and get moved above other teams because of who they are, but this year that seems unlikely. Even though a big win at Iowa would do some work, and teams in front of them will lose, the computers as of now hate Ohio State, and after trashing them in the previous paragraph, I agree.

Ohio State's best win is at Illinois. This means that Ohio State is fighting for a BCS bid, which it will get, if close, because it travels so well. It's always healthy to have a championship system based on tourism.

10. LSU - I don't see LSU finishing the season with one loss. At home against Alabama will be a marquee win, but I just can't imagine it beats Alabama and Arkansas. Any one-loss SEC team will make the title game, because it is its right to do so, even if it isn't one of the two best teams in the country. Then again, the computers still view the Big 12 as the best conference, so it may depend if the edith loss team in front of them is Nebraska or Oklahoma.

9. Utah - Even undefeated, it is too late to the party. Even if the Utes have a huge win against TCU, some excuse will be made about it being a close game or at home, or that Utah lacks a strong non-conference schedule. It is the late comer in the non-BCS conference party, and even though a win at San Diego State would be impressive, I just don't see Utah making it.

Interesting how Utah could be undefeated and not make it to the title or even a BCS game, and Pittsburgh, a team they beat, could have 3 or 4 losses and make a BCS game. It's very healthy to have a system that rewards a very mediocre conference. Wow, that Pittsburgh Orange Bowl game will be massive.

8. Wisconsin - It has a good shot at the Rose Bowl.  By beating Ohio State and Iowa, Wisconsin has an inside shot at a Rose Bowl bid as long as Michigan State loses again. After Saturday's beating, Michigan State might not recover quickly. Wisconsin would need a miracle to make the title game, since it is not Ohio State, and its biggest upcoming win would be against Northwestern. Still, it has to be considered a contender, since it looks to have a strong chance at an 11-1 record. Utah wins and SEC chaos are necessary for the Badgers to move up.

7. Oklahoma - The scammers of the BCS game can never be overlooked.  With a season that ends at Baylor, at Oklahoma State and then maybe a Big 12 championship game, Oklahoma would make a great surge if it remains with one loss. Since the computers love the Big 12, and Oklahoma ends up in the title game despite the will of America, the Sooners definitely could jump almost anyone.

I wouldn't rule out them jumping an undefeated Oregon--that's how screwy the system is. Most likely they will lose again, since their best road win is at Cincinnati, and they have three road games remaining.

6. Boise State - Maybe the Broncos can play Pittsburgh in the Orange Bowl.  Once Nevada lost to Hawaii, I knew that Boise State would not make the title game. After this week's BCS came out, the rankings clearly showed Boise State its fate. It needs a lot of help. Virginia Tech winning the ACC is a good start. Nevada remaining ranked is another. Oregon State beating Oregon is a big one.

Utah beating TCU is the biggest one. If TCU and Boise State remain undefeated, TCU will stay ahead of them. Boise State is definitely not No. 13, but the computers will kill it and help TCU. Maybe if Oregon and Auburn lose, Boise State being ranked No. 1 in the polls could get it to the title game. The odds are long.

5. TCU - Win Saturday and then it moves up.  I have TCU No. 5 simply because the game at Utah is a nightmare and will be really difficult to win. However if it does, TCU has an outside shot to make the title game. Nebraska would still need to lose again, and Oregon would need to lose. Also, TCU has to keep rooting for Baylor, since its win over the Bears is what is helping it out so much in the standings. The computers stalk the Big 12. Even if TCU goes undefeated, I still see something screwing it out of a shot (Utah was overrated, while the title game sponsors are allergic to purple).

4. Nebraska - Just because the system is this dumb.  A one-loss Big 12 team always is favored over a Boise State or TCU, because the BCS is idiotic. It's healthy to have a system where two undefeated teams have less of a shot than a team that lost at home to Texas. Does that mean that Iowa State or UCLA should get a title shot also? The computers bookmark and do very adult things for the Big 12, so it is reasonable to think that a one-loss Nebraska is more deserving than an undefeated TCU or Boise State. Wait, no it isn't.

3. Alabama - It is in the SEC after all.  I have no problem with the argument that the SEC is the best conference in America. It is, despite the creepy Every Breath You Take obsession and the computers' obsession with the Big 12. If Alabama still has one loss at the end of the season, it will have earned at least strong consideration. It would have to beat LSU, Mississippi St, Auburn, maybe South Carolina and, most importantly, Georgia State. Alabama's win at Arkansas was really good, but what is its second best win? Florida? The non-conference is atrocious.

College football brings out the dumbest arguments, my favorite being that TCU (or Boise State) wouldn't go undefeated in the SEC. Maybe, but they wouldn't have to. Alabama didn't go undefeated, yet it has a better shot to make the title game. Never is the argument about who really is the best team. Instead, it's always about who one has played in conference. Well, the last time I remember Alabama playing a Mountain West team, Utah beat them all over the Superdome.  

2. Oregon - It has a 55-point game in them. It seems to have a few 55-point offensive games in it, but I just sense a game in which its defense goes AWOL and some team scores too much against it. Arizona and at Oregon State--not an easy way to end the season, especially since weather could slow down the offense. I would love to see an exciting team like Oregon reach the title game undefeated, but I just sense something will go wrong.

1. Auburn - Win one and it's in. Win the Alabama game and it is most likely in the title game. It could probably even afford to lose the SEC title game and still make it. It's healthy to have a system where a team can lose a conference championship game and still play for the national title. I sense Auburn can survive through Georgia and Chattanooga.

One more thought about the BCS computers, if Missouri keeps losing, can it eventually be No. 1?