College Football Predictions: Ole Miss over Auburn and Possible Week 9 Upsets
You could foresee Navy knocking off Notre Dame . . . that wasn’t a stretch at all. Mizzou beating the Sooners in Oklahoma was thrilling but not truly shocking. The Tigers are for real. Syracuse over West Virginia was definitely a surprise as was the fact that Michigan State was very nearly upended by scrappy Northwestern.
But then there was Texas . . . oh Texas! Losing to Iowa State at home in Austin? That was astounding. Sure the Longhorns were only ranked No. 19 after knocking off a Cornhusker team that simply couldn’t catch the ball, but taking a decisive defeat at home against the Cyclones? It seemed improbable.
Week 9 on the college gridiron presents a plethora of opportunities for upsets, shockers, near misses and thrillers.
55 contests feature 108 FBS teams, two of these facing FCS foes (Army vs. VMI, North Carolina vs. William & Mary) and 12 teams have the week off from competition.
The following slideshow attempts to scan the slate of games and isolate six match-ups that are best suited to produce a surprising outcome. These selections are further based on confidence (one representing the most certainty and six reserved for the weekly “ridiculous” pick).
Road kill cometh . . . your hour hath arrived. Rise up oh underdog and slay thy favorite!
6. Ole Miss over Auburn
1 of 6
@ Ole Miss
Auburn -7
Overall Series: Auburn leads 25-9 and is 11-2 at Ole Miss
No. 1 Auburn is a perfect 8-0 after beating LSU last weekend at Jordan-Hare Stadium while Ole Miss is 3-4 after consecutive losses to Alabama and Arkansas.
The Bottom Line
So, will No. 1 fall again?
First it was Alabama getting knocked off by the Gamecocks, then Ohio State fell to Wisconsin and last week Oklahoma was vanquished by the Missouri Tigers.
Is Auburn next to tumble from the clouds down to earth landing with a resounding thud behind Boise State and TCU in the BCS rankings?
Though Auburn faces Ole Miss on the road, the Rebels, ummmm, I mean Black Bears are not ranked and have not had the kind of run in 2010 that inspires a lot of confidence in knocking off a No. 1.
But with that said this matchup presents a fairly interesting statistical quandary.
Both these teams run the ball effectively (Auburn is ranked No. 4 while Ole Miss is No. 20) and both are effective at shutting down the run (Auburn is No. 24 and Ole Miss is No. 29).
What may be overlooked in the Cam Newton hyper media palooza is that the Auburn Tigers rank 85th overall is passing yards with 183 yards per game.
Additionally, the Tiger “D” ranks 109th overall in passing defense allowing over 240 yards through the air per game.
If ex-Quacker Jeremiah Masoli can pick apart the Auburn pass defense, Ole Miss may just have a shot at being the next team to knock off No. 1.
5. Baylor over Texas
2 of 6
@ Texas
Texas -7
Overall Series: Texas leads 71-22 and is 41-8 vs. the Bears in Austin
No. 25 Baylor is 6-2, and after beating Kansas State last week, the Bears are bowl eligible for the first time since 1993. The Longhorns are a startling 4-3 and are back out of the Top 25 after being stunned by Iowa State last weekend at home.
The Bottom Line
The Longhorns should be blood thirsty after their lackluster defeat at the hands of the Cyclones last Saturday. And it would seem that this would be the worst possible time for an improved Bears team to face an angry, but talented Longhorns squad.
But before everyone begins to celebrate another thrashing of the Bears in the capital of Texas let’s take a step backwards and consider the facts.
Texas has struggled offensively and the Bears have faltered defensively. The Longhorns are a good defensive squad and the Bears are effective offensively, both through the air and on the ground.
This will be one of the best Baylor vs. Texas games in the 93 years of the series (Wait, did I just say that out loud?).
Both times the Longhorns have been shocked this year (by UCLA and Iowa State), they have been ripped for a large amount of yards on the ground at home. The Texas “D” gave up 264 yards rushing to the Bruins and 199 yards on the ground to the Cyclones.
Baylor, who averages 197 yards rushing per game, will have to run effectively to upend the Longhorns.
Baylor hasn’t beaten Texas in Austin since 1991.
If the Baylor Bears can play like they believe they can win (and that is easier said than done as they have been beat down by Texas year after year), they may just do so.
Even then, Baylor won’t win the Big 12 South . . . right?
“Daddy,” the small child utters with fear in his heart, “why did you tell Mommy that the planets are out of orbit and the sun is now revolving around the moon?”
“Well,” the father answers with a hint of trepidation, “because Baylor is playing in the final Big 12 Championship against Missouri and Daddy put all his money on the Texas vs. Nebraska matchup and lost our minivan . . .”
4. Texas Tech over Texas A&M
3 of 6
@ Texas A&M
A&M -6.5
Overall Series: Texas A&M leads 35-32 and is 15-12 in College Station vs. the Red Raiders
Texas Tech is 4-3 coming into its annual grudge match with the Aggies, who are also 4-3 and fresh off a 45-10 beat down of Kansas.
The Bottom Line
Coming into 2010, Texas Tech with Tommy Tuberville at the helm was a bit of an unknown while the Aggies seemed far more certain about their future with high hopes of finally reviving A&M football and making a run at a Big 12 South crown.
Nine weeks later both these teams really need a Week 9 victory. Tech needs a win to continue on what little momentum they built with a Week 8 win over Colorado (and possibly become bowl eligible) while the Aggies need a victory to deliver on what is left of the promise they showed in preseason.
Both squads are passing teams that have struggled defending the pass. The Aggies have more balance on both sides of the ball.
Regardless of who starts for Texas A&M at quarterback, the Red Raiders cannot afford a slow start on offense or defense if they expect to knock off the Aggies on Saturday.
Texas Tech needs to play with a lead and force either quarterback to build on the woes the Aggies have dealt with offensively (nine interceptions, 16 fumbles and 25 sacks allowed).
This is the week that the Red Raiders finally need to play a full 60 minutes of football. If they don’t they will lose to a good Aggie team, while if they do they will capture their eighth defeat of A&M in 11 years and Tommy Tuberville will take one big step forward in healing the nasty gash gaping in the fanatical Red Raider Nation.
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3. Missouri over Nebraska
4 of 6
@ Nebraska
Nebraska -7
Overall Series: Nebraska leads 59-33 and is 33-14 at home vs. Missouri
No. 6 Missouri is a perfect 7-0 after taking down then No. 1 Oklahoma at home in Columbia. No. 14 Nebraska is 6-1, with their only blemish being a shocking loss to Texas in Lincoln.
The Bottom Line
This is going to be one of the best games of Week 9. Missouri has averaged over 286 yards of passing per game and will face the No. 4 ranked passing defense in Nebraska.
Despite their performance last week against Oklahoma State, Nebraska is still far more effective running the ball than throwing it. The Cornhuskers have averaged a startling 290 yards on the ground per game and will face a Tiger “D” that has allowed only 115 rushing yards per game.
The Tigers held the Sooners to only 99 yards rushing last weekend while the Huskers allowed 283 passing yards to the Cowboys.
In order to upset Nebraska the Tigers will have to run the ball effectively. In the Texas vs. Nebraska contest the Longhorns only passed for 62 yards but ran for 209.
Defensively they will have to find a way to shut down Taylor Martinez and the running game, taking an early lead and forcing him to win through the air will certainly help.
Nebraska has dropped the ball 24 times in 2010. If Missouri can force some turnovers and rattle Martinez and company, they could just go 8-0.
2. Michigan State over Iowa
5 of 6
@ Iowa
Iowa -6.5
Overall Series: Iowa leads 21-18 and is 12-8 vs. MSU at Iowa
The No. 5 Michigan State Spartans are a perfect 8-0 following a comeback win against Northwestern last Saturday afternoon. No. 18 Iowa is 5-2 and fresh off a one point loss to Wisconsin.
The Bottom Line
It's funny how much respect the Spartans aren’t garnering with their perfect record . . .
They are fifth in the BCS rankings even though they are perfect in the Big 10 yet TCU and Boise State (from the MWC and WAC respectively) are ranked ahead of them.
Iowa is ranked No. 18 and has two losses but are still touchdown favorites over the Spartans.
In reality it would seem like most of college football sees Michigan State as some sort of green and white aberration whose quest for perfection will come to a crashing end in Iowa City.
Indeed, why is our sports nation discussing how the tie breaker will be decided for the Rose Bowl while the Spartans remain undefeated?
Michigan State has more than a realistic chance of beating Iowa because the Spartans offer a dull brand of balance on offense (ranked 34th in passing and 28th in rushing) and a defense that isn’t stifling but overall plays well enough to win games.
The Spartans most notable weakness is on pass defense where they rank 93rd overall. If Iowa wins this game they will likely do it through the air.
But if old Sparty can shut down Ricky Stanzi and friends they will continue on triumphantly under the radar to 9-0.
1. Louisville over Pittsburgh
6 of 6
@ Pitt
Pitt -10.5
Overall Series: Louisville is 7-6 and the series is tied 4-4 when played at Pitt
Louisville is 4-3 (already matching their win total in 2009) and fresh off a 26-0 drubbing of UConn last Saturday. Pitt is 4-3 after consecutive victories over Syracuse and Rutgers.
The Bottom Line
These two squads match up well on paper; the Cardinals run the ball well (No. 20 overall) while the Panthers are highly effective at shutting down the run (No. 8 overall).
While Pitt has been fairly balanced offensively, Louisville has a definite advantage in defending the pass where they rank No. 18 nationally allowing only 182 yards per game through the air.
Both these teams have losses to quality opponents but Louisville has seemed to gain momentum as the season has gone on.
The Cardinals' QB Adam Froman (119/196 for 1551 yards, 4 INTs and 11 TDs) will need a big game for Louisville to knock off Pitt.
In the Panthers’ three losses they allowed 283, 248, and 272 yards through the air respectively (to Utah, Miami (FL) and Notre Dame).
The Cardinals have scored over 50 percent of their total points in the second quarter and Pitt has scored 40 percent of their points in the fourth.
The Cardinals need to score big in the first half and then play defense all the way to the whistle.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
