BCS Rankings Week 9: What Happens When TCU Jumps Boise State in the Rankings?
College Football’s BCS Rankings for Week 9 were released on Sunday night, and the TCU Horned Frogs are getting ready to jump the Boise State Broncos.
TCU sports a .8833 BCS average, just a hair less than Boise State’s .8846 score.
The Broncos have been America’s favorite non-automatic qualifier for the last few years, but despite the fact that they get more attention than the Horned Frogs, they won’t be leading in the polls for long.
While Boise State’s greater prestige will likely keep them ahead of TCU in the human polls for now, don’t forget that the computer polls make up a very significant one-third of the BCS rankings formula.
TCU already has a significant edge on Boise State in the computers, with a percentage of .870, as opposed the Broncos’ .780.
The Horned Frogs are even the top-ranked team in the nation according to Richard Billingsley’s computer poll, and they are poised to increase the gap between themselves and Boise in the computers due to their stronger remaining schedule.
TCU has the blessing of playing No. 8 Utah, and with a victory over the Utes, they will assuredly pass Boise State in the BCS standings (the Broncos best remaining opponent is No. 24 Nevada).
It might come as a shock to the general public when TCU becomes the nation’s top-ranked non-AQ school, but if they win out, it will happen.
Now the question is: what happens when TCU finally leap(horn)frogs Boise State in the rankings?
TCU Will Be Just a Few Strokes of Luck Away from the BCS Title Game
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Even if TCU jumps Boise State and goes undefeated, they still need help to earn a spot in the BCS title game.
An undefeated Auburn, Oregon, Michigan State or Missouri team would certainly get into the championship over TCU, and a one-loss Alabama team would likely do so too, due to their stronger schedule and reputation.
But because of their strong computer profile, it is very likely that the Horned Frogs would just need one loss by each of these teams to move past them in the rankings.
So if five out of those six teams lose a game, TCU will play for a National Title.
But will they?
Will Auburn Lose?
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Auburn still needs to beat Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama.
Despite having a great offense, the Tigers’ pass defense ranked just 108th out of 120 FBS teams going into last week.
With such a glaring weakness, they won’t be able to stop Jeremiah Masoli, Aaron Murray AND Greg McElroy.
Auburn will likely lose to Alabama and either Ole Miss or Georgia, missing out on chances at the SEC and National Championship games.
Will Oregon Lose?
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There’s a reason Oregon is only eighth in the computer rankings.
Despite annihilating their opponents, the Ducks’ only truly impressive win came against Stanford.
But now they have to beat USC, Washington, Cal, Arizona, and Oregon State.
Not exactly an easy task.
The Ducks, who boast the nation’s top scoring offense at 55.1 points per game, are certainly good enough to pull it off, but asking Oregon to beat five quality opponents in a row is just too much.
The Ducks will lose one of these games and miss out on a shot at the National Title.
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Will Michigan State Lose?
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The Spartans are in great shape for a National Championship run, with only one tough game remaining: this Saturday at No. 18 Iowa.
Michigan State has the more explosive offense than Iowa, but the Hawkeyes bring one of the nation’s best defenses to the table.
This is going to be a hard-fought game, but Iowa’s defense is just too good for Michigan State to handle.
The Hawkeyes should win this one, ending the Spartans’ hopes.
Will Missouri Lose?
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No. 6 Missouri has its toughest test this weekend, when it travels to Lincoln to face No. 14 Nebraska.
These are two of the best defenses in the nation, and this matchup could go either way.
But dual-threat Husker quarterback Taylor Martinez is simply tougher to contain than Missouri’s equally talented, but more predictable Blaine Gabbert.
Nebraska’s defense is also a little bit better and more battle-tested (from last year’s success), and they should win this game.
Will Alabama Lose?
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Alabama has looked like the nation’s best team for much of this season, with the obvious exception of their loss to now-No. 20 South Carolina.
But they still have to play No. 12 LSU, No. 21 Mississippi State, and No. 1 Auburn.
And if they win out, they’ll likely have a rematch with the Gamecocks in the SEC Championship.
The Crimson Tide are the most talented and balanced team in the nation, though, and should win all of these games.
Pencil Alabama into the BCS title game.
And with all of the other teams losing, that game will come against TCU.
Can TCU Actually WIN the National Championship?
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If things go as I’ve described, TCU will do the unthinkable, playing Alabama for the National Title.
But are they good enough to win?
With the Nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (they give up just NINE points per game) and an explosive offense led by dual-threat quarterback Andy Dalton, they absolutely can pull off the upset.
But Alabama poses a really tough matchup.
The Crimson Tide are one of the only teams that can match the Horned Frogs’ impressive depth and balance, and they have more playmakers on offense.
TCU can contain just about anyone, but stopping Greg McElroy, Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, and Julio Jones is something the Horned Frogs just aren’t prepared for.
TCU will be able to keep it close, but I’m just not convinced that they can pull out a victory.
The Horned Frogs will take a huge leap for the non-automatic qualifiers, but won’t be able to make that final step, as Alabama wins the National Championship.
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