College Basketball Preview Part I: The ACC Conference
Part 1 of 6 of my massive College Basketball preview begins with the home of the defending national champions—the ACC Conference.
Duke, the defending national champions, returns for a chance at repeating for the second time under Coach K.
Their rivals, North Carolina, will be attempting to return to national prominence after a hugely disappointing season that saw them in the NIT. While making it there is an accomplishment for most schools, it's a black cloud hanging over the program for a school with as much history as the Tar Heels.
Outside of the two most recognizable schools (in basketball, that is), there are a couple programs looking to make some noise in the conference and hopefully in the NCAA's.
In terms of players, gone is the ACC's version of Evan Turner, Greivis Vasquez, Duke guard Jon Scheyer, last year's leading rebounder Al-Farouq Aminu, the Georgia Tech twin towers Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal and UNC's Ed Davis and Deon Thompson.
Coming in are arguably two of the best freshmen in the country in Duke's Kyrie Irving and North Carolina's Harrison Barnes. Six schools recorded top 25 recruiting classes, so there is a great influx of young talent arriving on ACC campuses this fall.
Boston College Golden Eagles
1 of 13
Last year: 15-16, 6-10 in the ACC
Notable Losses: Tyler Roche: 7.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 40% from 3PT, 19 minutes per game
Notable Gains: None
Strengths: The Eagles return much of their production from last year's team that was only one win away from .500. Their top 3 scorers and rebounders return in 6'8" forward Joe Trapani (14 points per game and 6 rebounds per game), 6'3" guard Reggie Jackson (13-6) and 6'6" forward Corey Raji (11-6). One would think these numbers will improve. The five projected starters all started 20-plus games last season, so they have plenty of experience in their starting five. The roster is also filled with upperclassmen as only two of the players are not juniors or seniors.
Weaknesses: While their starting five may have experience, they only have two players coming off the bench that saw any time last year in guard Dallas Elmore and forward Cortney Dunn. After that, it's pretty much a crap shoot. The freshmen will probably not contribute much, so it will be up to those seven to make sure they stay on the floor. Last year, shot selection was a problem as Jackson and guard Biko Paris each shot under 30 percent from three-point range yet combined to shoot almost five per game. Also, they have a new coach in Steve Donahue, who coached Cornell to the Sweet 16 last year. Make no mistake, Donahue is a good coach, but transitioning to a program filled with veterans and trying to change their style is not an easy thing to do. There will certainly be bumps in the road.
Prediction: While the Eagles have plenty of veteran leadership, the new coach/system will make the early months a struggle. However, they should improve their record from last year assuming the returnees have improved. In the conference, they are probably a middle of the pack team. I see a definite NIT bid, with an outside shot at the NCAA's should the transition to Donahue and his system not take long.
Clemson Tigers
2 of 13
Last year: 21-11, 9-7 in the ACC, lost in 1st round of NCAA's to Missouri
Notable Losses: F Trevor Booker: 15 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 31 mpg (leader in each category), F David Potter: 7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 37% 3PT, 24 mpg (started 30 games)
Notable Gains: None
Strengths: Despite Booker's absence, the Tigers return their next four leading scorers led by guard Demontez Stitt (11.4 points). They also bring back their second and third leading rebounders in big man Jerai Grant (five rebounds) and guard Tanner Smith (four). Their backcourt of Stitt, Smith and sixth man Andre Young return to form one of the the more experienced guard trios in the conference. A couple of highly touted freshmen from last year in guard Noel Johnson and forward Milton Jennings return and should be expected to make major contributions this season. Three returnees shot over 35% from long distance last year. Overall, the Tigers have a pretty experienced club that returns seven players who played 10-plus minutes per game.
Weaknesses: Make no mistake, Booker was easily the team's best player last year and really the only guy other teams were afraid of. He will be greatly missed. Along with Potter's graduation, the frontcourt is lacking in experience aside from Grant. Jennings and Trevor's younger brother, Devin are the only one's who played significant minutes in the frontcourt, with Booker and Jennings playing only 11 minutes per game. Those three will need to crash the boards relentlessly to make up for Booker's absence. Like Boston College, the Tigers will be coached by a new face in Brad Brownell, who coached at Wright State for eight seasons previously, making the NCAA's in each of the last three seasons. Again, the transition will provide for bumps in the road early.
Prediction: The backcourt will carry the team through many tough games, but making the NCAA is by no means a certainty. I see them on the bubble come selection Sunday, and it will most likely depend on if they were able to beat the best teams in the conference. Regardless, I doubt they will have as much success this year in the regular season.
Duke Blue Devils
3 of 13
Last year: 35-5, 13-3 in the ACC, won National Championship over Butler
Notable Losses: C Brian Zoubek: 5.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg (led team), 64% FG (led team), G Jon Scheyer: 18 ppg (led team), 5 apg (led team), 38% 3PT FG, 37 mpg (led team), F Lance Thomas: 5 ppg, 5 rpg, 25.3 mpg (started 39 of 40 games)
Notable Gains: G Kyrie Irving (McDonald's All-American, No. 3 player in ESPNU top 100), F Josh Hairston (No. 19 in ESPNU top 100), No. 6 class
Strengths: The first words that come out of most people's mouths when you ask them about Duke is Coach K. He's without a doubt one of the best basketball coaches ever and is able to change his style to fit his rosters strengths. This year, the team's strength will be its athleticism. The catalyst behind this change in style will be Kyrie Irving, who has been drawing comparisons to Jay Williams, the Duke point guard back in the early part of this decade who won player of the year and was a top 3 draft pick in the NBA. Make no mistake, Irving can have that kind of impact THIS YEAR. Returning starters F Kyle Singler (17.7 ppg, 7 rpg) and G Nolan Smith (17.4 ppg) provide the team with veteran leadership and proven starpower.
Singler is arguably the best returning player in the country, and Smith finally showed everyone last year why he was so highly regarded coming out of high school. The Devils also return contributors Mason and Miles Plumlee, both of which will be counted on to help make up for the losses of Zoubek and Thomas. Guard Andre Dawkins, an 18-year-old sophomore, returns with experience and the confidence of making big shots in the NCAA tournament. The wild card, however, is Stephen Curry's younger brother Seth, who's now eligible after transferring from Liberty University where he averaged over 20 points as a freshman guard. We know he can score, but it will be interesting to see how much an impact he will make in the much tougher ACC.
Weaknesses: While Irving should be able to replace Scheyer, it will take some time as not many true freshman are able to make a seamless transition to the college game. Zoubek and Thomas' graduation makes the team much smaller. No player on the squad weighs over 240 pounds. Should they go up against a big team (see N.C. State), the Plumlee's may have trouble holding their ground and rebounding the ball effectively.
Prediction: It's crazy to think, but the returning champs may actually be better than they were last year. Their backcourt is without a doubt one of the best in the country with Smith, Irving, Dawkins and Curry. Singler's do-it-all ability will make him almost impossible to stop. While I will not make them the favorite to go back-to-back, they certainly have all the tools necessary to make the Final Four. The only thing that can stop them from making it back will be if the frontcourt is unable to maintain their positioning for rebounds and post defense.
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Florida State Seminoles
4 of 13
Last year: 22-10, 10-6 in the ACC, lost in 1st round of NCAA's to Gonzaga
Notable Losses: C Solomon Alabi: 11.7 ppg (led team), 6 rpg, 2.3 bpg (led team), started every game, F Ryan Reid: 7 ppg, 4 rpg, 22.7 mpg (started 29 of 32 games).
Notable Gains: F Okaro White (No. 36 in ESPNU top 100), G Ian Miller (No. 37 in ESPNU top 100), No. 16 class
Strengths: Many people have never heard of Chris Singleton (No. 31 in the picture), but he will be one of the best players in the ACC this season. He averaged 10 points and seven rebounds last year, and with Alabi gone, he will be the team's first offensive option and his scoring numbers should skyrocket. Oh, and he was also the ACC's Defensive Player of the Year last season. Highly touted sophomore Michael Snaer made a pretty nice impact last year (second leading scorer returning at 8.8 per game), and will be expected to do more this season. The rest of the backcourt from last year is back as well in point guard Derwin Kitchen and guard Deividas Dulkys. They should have plenty of experience at the guard position with those three and freshman Ian Miller coming in with a good amount of hype.
Weaknesses: Aside from Singleton, only big man Xavier Gibson has any experience in the frontcourt. Alabi and Reid leaving means a massive amount of uncertainty up front. White may start immediately because of this, and will probably have problems at first. They also lack experienced size as Gibson and Singleton are the only players over 6'7" and 225 pounds on the roster. Depending on the freshmen isn't necessarily a bad thing, but all FSU fans need to do is look at UNC's problems last year to see that there will certainly be some growing pains should they depend on White and Miller to do a lot from the opening tip.
Prediction: The key for this team is finding a legitimate second scorer to Singleton, which will probably be Snaer or one of the other guards. Assuming that happens, this team could make some noise in the ACC, but their lack of beef up front will be a big problem. Singleton will have to make sure he stays out of foul trouble the entire season or else this team will be no better than .500. Can they make the NCAA's again this year? Probably, but don't be surprised if they're one of those last four teams that benefit from the tournament increasing to 68 teams.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
5 of 13
Last year: 23-13, 7-9 in the ACC, lost in 2nd round of NCAA tournament to Ohio State
Notable Losses: F Gani Lawal: 13.1 ppg, 8.5 rpg (led team in both categories), F Derrick Favors: 12.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2.1 bpg (led team), G D'Andre Bell: 6.1 ppg, 41% 3PT (started every game).
Notable Gains: F Jason Morris (No. 67 on ESPNU top 100)
Strengths: Even with the losses of three starters, the Yellow Jackets still return players with experience. Five returnees played 10 minutes or more per game. Guard Iman Shumpert will take over the scoring load as he is the only returning double-digit scorer. Another year of experience should help his decision-making and reduce his turnover rate of 3.6 per game. They also have a highly regarded sophomore class despite the loss of Favors that will be expected to make major contributions this season.
Weaknesses: Losing Favors and Lawal did more than just take away the teams top scorers and rebounders. F Brian Oliver is the tallest returning player at 6'6", meaning redshirt freshmen Daniel Miller (6'11") and Kammeon Holsey (6'8") will be brought into the fire from the opening tip. Expect newcomer Morris to see tons of minutes as well. In case it hasn't already become apparent, this team is very young. Of the five returnees who played a decent amount, only one is a senior (Maurice Miller, who averaged only 15 minutes and four points per game).
Prediction: After a successful season and solid showing in the NCAA's, this team is in rebuilding mode. A .500 record will be an accomplishment for a young team. Tech fans should take their lumps this season with an eye on the 2011-12 season as their next opportunity to make an NCAA berth.
Maryland Terrapins
6 of 13
Last year: 24-9, 13-3 in the ACC, lost to Michigan State in the second round of the NCAA tournament
Notable Losses: G Greivis Vasquez: 19.6 ppg (led team), 6.3 apg (led team), 4.6 rpg, (All-ACC 1st team), F Landon Milbourne: 12.7 ppg, 5 rpg, G Eric Hayes: 11.3 ppg, 4 apg, 45% 3PT.
Notable Gains: G Mychal Parker (No. 45 in ESPNU top 100) and G Terrell Stoglin (No. 97 in ESPNU top 100), No. 21 Class
Strengths: Sophomore forward Jordan Williams was an absolute beast last year as a freshmen, averaging 10 points and 9 rebounds per game while shooting 51% from the field. With the top three scorers last year now gone, he should be a double-double waiting to happen. Guard Sean Mosley is the other returning starter and should be the go-to-guy on the perimeter. They also return some experience with three key bench players returning. Parker is a highly touted shooting guard who may start right away. Gary Williams is one of the best coaches in the conference and will have his group of kids ready to play every night.
Weaknesses: Vasquez was the most important player to his team in the ACC, so obviously his loss is huge. He and Hayes were the primary ball handlers, so consistent guard play is going to be a huge issue. Losing 44 points per game is going to be nearly impossible to make up even if Williams and Mosley step up. Outside of Williams, only 6'7" Dino Gregory has any experience in the frontcourt. The Terps are going to have to depend on their six recruits, specifically Parker and Stoglin, if they don't start, to shore up their bench.
Prediction: 13-3 in the ACC and 24 wins total is definitely not happening this year. They simply lost too much. An NCAA berth is uncertain, but if Williams becomes an All-Conference player, it's certainly possible. Right now, they're on the bubble, leaning towards the NIT.
Miami Hurricanes
7 of 13
Last year: 20-13, 4-12 in the ACC
Notable Losses: F Dwayne Collins: 12 ppg, 8 rpg, 60% FG (led team in all three categories), G James Dews: 11.5 ppg (2nd on team)
Notable Gains: None
Strengths: Returning guards Trey McKinney-Jones and Durand Scott will make the backcourt for the Hurricanes the big strength of the team. Both are young (Jones is a junior and Scott is a sophomore) and another year to improve should do wonders for this team. Take away Dews, and that'll be more shots and opportunities for this tandem. The guards in general are pretty big, with only one below 6'3". Experience is there as well as eight players return having played 10-plus minutes per game last season. The frontcourt does have experience with Adrian Thomas, Reggie Johnson and Julian Gamble all starting at some point last season.
Weaknesses: When a team that doesn't make the NCAA's loses their best player, it's usually not good. Miami is no exception. Collins was their force down low, and it's hard to foresee any of the returning frontcourt players making up for his presence. Outside of Collins, shooting was an issue last year. His absence will force Miami to be an almost exclusive outside shooting team (they averaged 23 3pt attempts last year with him), which is usually not a good sign. They also have only one senior (Thomas) so the team is pretty young and haven't been accustomed to winning in the ACC.
Prediction: Unless their shooting drastically improves, this will not be a good team. A .500 record would be nice for this squad, who are probably a year away from being serious tournament contenders.
North Carolina Tar Heels
8 of 13
Last year: 20-17, 5-11 in the ACC
Notable Losses: F Ed Davis: 13 ppg, 9.2 rpg (led team), 58% FG (led team), F Deon Thompson: 13.7 ppg (led team), 6.7 rpg, G-F Will Graves: 9.8 ppg, 37% 3PT, G-F Marcus Ginyard: 7.7 ppg, 1.3 spg (led team), 30.6 mpg (led team).
Notable Gains: F Harrison Barnes (McDonald's All-American, No.1 on ESPNU top 100), G Reggie Bullock (McDonald's All-American, No. 18 player on ESPNU top 100), Kendall Marshall (McDonald's All-American, No. 22 player on ESPNU top 100), No. 3 class, transfer F Justin Knox (6.3 ppg for Alabama last season).
Strengths: In case it wasn't obvious, the Tar Heels brought in a pretty good recruiting class. Barnes is expected to be the star of the team from day one. He's been compared to Kobe Bryant in his ability to score at will and should get plenty of chances to do so. Marshall and Bullock should crack the rotation immediately. Bullock is being compared to former Tar Heel Wayne Ellington, only bigger (he's 6'6"). Marshall is regarded as the best passer in the 2010 class, something that should help the team's turnover problems. Along with the two freshmen, the backcourt is incredibly talented with Larry Drew II being the sole returning starter. While he struggled periodically, a year to hone his skills means he can only get better. Add in talented sophomores Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald and the backcourt is without a doubt the strength of the team.
Weaknesses: Knox is the only senior, meaning this team is still very young. Losing Davis and Thompson makes the frontcourt an unknown. C Tyler Zeller has shown flashes of talent, but his inability to stay healthy is a major problem. The wild card is F John Henson. He came in last year as a 6'10" wire but has reportedly put on 20 to 30 pounds to bring his weight over 210 pounds. The kid has major skills, but his lack of strength last year prevented him from being effective. Exactly who will be getting the rebounds will be interesting to see. Knox may end up being the team's most consistent back to the basket player, and that's not a good thing. In the backcourt, the guards had major issues with turnovers and making horrendous decisions. While one would hope they fixed that in the offseason, it's by no means a certainty.
Prediction: The talented Tar Heels are still green, though they should be much better. I think the pre-season No. 10 ranking is a little high, but they have no business not making the NCAA's. How much further they go will depend on just how good Barnes is and whether the young kids are able to mature.
N.C. State Wolfpack
9 of 13
Last year: 20-16, 5-11 in the ACC
Notable Losses: F Dennis Horner: 12 ppg, 5 rpg, G Farnold Degand: 5.5 ppg, started 18 games.
Notable Gains: F C.J. Leslie (No. 11 in ESPNU top 100, McDonald's All-American), G Ryan Harrow (No. 39 in ESPNU top 100), No. 7 class.
Strengths: Leading scorer and rebounder F Tracy Smith returns for his senior season. The 6'8", 250 pound big man averaged 16.5 ppg and 7.3 rpg. He should only be better this year, which could be scary for opposing teams that don't have a big body to put on him. Combine that with Leslie, who's also 6'8", but more of a perimeter player, and those two could be an absolute force in the frontcourt. The 'Pack return five players who made contributions, and their bench in the frontcourt should not be much of an issue as Scott Wood and Richard Howell were each in over 30 games, with Wood being a regular starter.
Weaknesses: While the frontcourt is incredibly talented and experienced, they will depend on the backcourt to get them the ball, which could be an issue. G Javier Gonzalez returns, but his 3.7/3.1 assist to turnover ratio is a problem. Combine that with the fact that they only have one other experienced guard (C.J. Williams) and there could be issues. Harrow may be called upon earlier than he should be. Free throw shooting, and with it, closing out games, is also a problem as Horner was the only player last year who shot better than 72 percent from the charity stripe.
Predictions: This team strikes me as the second-coming of Georgia Tech from last year, where they combined an experienced big man (Gani Lawal for GT and Tracy Smith for NCST) with a stud freshman (Derrick Favors for GT and C.J. Leslie for NCST). The Yellow Jacket results were pretty solid, and I expect similar results for the Wolfpack. The Sweet 16 is a definite possibility if the guards are able to control the ball and not do too much.
Virginia Cavaliers
10 of 13
Last year: 15-16, 5-11 in the ACC
Notable Losses: G Sylvan Landesberg: 17.3 ppg (led team), 5 rpg, F-C Jerome Meyinsse: 6.5 ppg, 4 rpg, started 23 games, G Calvin Baker: 3 ppg, started 10 games.
Notable Gains: G K.T. Harrell (No. 90 in ESPNU top 100) and F James Johnson (No. 92 in ESPNU top 100)
Strengths: Second leading scorer and leading rebounder Mike Scott returns and will easily be the best player on this team. He's a big body, and with the loss of Meyinsse, should be a double-double guy on most nights due to the squad's dependency on his rebounding. He could be an All-Conference player. Fellow returning starter Sammy Zeglinski also returns, though his season will start later due to an injury that should keep him out until around Christmas, but should be ready by conference play. The Cavaliers bring back some solid experience, as every returnee (six of them) played quality minutes last season. They have pretty good size, with four players listed at 6'9" or taller. Add Scott, who's 6'8", 240 pounds and this could be the biggest team in the conference.
Weaknesses: Bringing in six freshmen with only six returnees means the bench is going to be a major question. There will be next to no experience coming into possibly tough situations. Guard play will be a problem as they had turnover problems last season and outside of Zeglinski there is no scoring in the backcourt. In fact, outside of Scott, no player last season averaged more than nine points per game. Someone will need to fill it up from the outside, and there is no candidate that clearly has that ability.
Prediction: The Zeglinski injury coupled with Landesberg leaving will make the first month or two a major struggle for the Cavaliers. Losing the top scorer from a sub .500 team is not good, and losing a couple more starters only enhances that issue. Virginia will struggle to stay around .500 and will probably be at the bottom of the conference.
Virginia Tech Hokies
11 of 13
Last year: 25-9, 10-6 in the ACC
Notable Losses: F J.T. Thompson: 7.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 20 mpg (sixth man last year)
Notable Gains: None
Strengths: Having zero notable losses is probably their greatest strength. The Hokies return virtually everyone from a 25-win ball club that got snubbed from an NCAA tournament berth due to a horrendous non-conference schedule. Malcolm Delaney is the conference's leading scorer from last year at 20.2 points while also putting up four assists and four rebounds per game and is probably the best player in the conference not named Kyle Singler. Delaney's running mate, Dorenzo Hudson is almost as explosive as he averaged 15 points. They will be one of the best 1-2 backcourt in the country. This is a senior-laden team, with four of the five starting.
Weaknesses: While the frontcourt isn't bad, it's not nearly as talented as the backcourt. It's a small group with only one player above 6'7". Jeff Allen is their most effective big man, averaging 12 points and seven rebounds last season. He will need to be closer to a double-double type player in order for the club to be as good as I think they can be. Hudson also needs to be wary of controlling the ball, as he had an iffy assist/turnover ratio of 1.9/1.7.
Prediction: These guys could be very, very good this season. If I had to pick a team that could unseat Duke at the top of the conference, it would be the Hokies. Delaney is a candidate for National Player of the Year and if the frontcourt is able to hold up against big teams, they should have no problem making the NCAA's and have the tools to make a good run.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
12 of 13
Last year: 20-11, 9-7 in the ACC, lost in second round of NCAA Tournament to Kentucky
Notable Losses: F Al-Farouq Aminu: 15.8 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 1.4 bpg (led team in all categories), G Ishmael Smith: 13.2 ppg, 6 apg (led team), 5 rpg, 37 mpg (led team), G L.D. Williams: 8.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, C Chas McFarland: 7.2 ppg, 7 rpg, C David Weaver: 3 ppg (started 8 games).
Notable Gains: G J.T. Terrell (No. 49 in ESPNU top 100), F Travis McKie (No. 60 in ESPNU top 100), C Carson Desrosiers (No. 64 in ESPNU top 100), and F Melvin Tabb (No. 74 in ESPNU top 100). No. 12 class.
Strengths: The recruiting class new coach Jeff Bzdelik is bringing in will be making an immediate impact whether they're ready or not. It's a very balanced class, and Terrell will probably start immediately. Desrosiers is the fifth rated center in the 2010 class and could be paired with returning center Tony Woods to form an imposing twin towers (both are 6'11"). Highly touted sophomore Ari Stewart is the team's best outside shooter and could become a double digit scorer this season.
Weaknesses: C.J. Harris is the lone returning starter, and he will probably need to double his scoring average from last year (9.9) in order for the Deacons to have a chance to win. With only Harris, Woods and Stewart returning from last year, this will be an extremely inexperienced and young team. Seldom used guard Gary Clark is the only senior on this team. New coach Jeff Bzdelik will surely encounter his share of bumps in the road as he attempts to incorporate his system into a bunch of newcomers. Who will play point guard is a major question as Harris is more of a shooting guard but may be forced to play the point so Terrell can stay at his natural two position.
Prediction: Sorry Wake, this isn't your year. Take your lumps, hope your freshmen live up to the hype and maybe an NIT berth is within reach. Honestly, .500 would probably be a good goal for this inexperienced group. Look forward to next year.
Summary
13 of 13
This conference will be defined by youth (UNC and NC State) versus experience (Duke and Virginia Tech). The Devils and Hokies should finish 1-2, but the young squads certainly have the ability to leapfrog both teams should their freshmen get used to the college game faster than anticipated. The good news about the teams not expected to do well is that they are young and should have brighter futures next year with their young players taking lumps this season. In terms of overall strength, this should be a conference in the middle of the pack due to its lack of national championship caliber teams outside of Duke. I expect that come the conference tournament there will be a few teams that will be on the bubble and will need to perform well in order to shore up a berth.
NCAA teams: Duke, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and NC State
On the bubble: Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College
Better luck next year: Wake Forest, Miami, Georgia Tech, Virginia
Five players to watch: Chris Singleton (Florida State), Harrison Barnes (UNC), Kyle Singler (Duke), Malcolm Delaney (Virginia Tech) and Tracy Smith (NC State)
The one game every fan has to watch: Duke at UNC (March 5). Last conference game for both schools and by then we'll know if the Tar Heel kids are for real. I think they are.
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