UFC 121 Fight Card: How Diego Sanchez Will Beat Paulo Thiago

YES!

Let it be decreed that any column related to Diego Sanchez begin with that word.  It just...it never gets old.  Anyone familiar with the spittle-flecked entrance ritual of Sanchez will certainly understand.

These days, the ultra-intense Sanchez—who, for the uninitiated, belts out a spittle-flecked "YES!" every five feet or so as he makes his spittle-flecked way to the Octagon—could probably use the affirmation.  It seems The Nightmare has been living in his own nickname lately.

After moving down to the 155-pound weight class in 2009, Sanchez racked convincing wins over division stalwarts Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida.  By all rights, the former welterweight threat was now a dominant lightweight, and his performances rightly earned him a title shot.

Problem was, he got it.

At UFC 107 last November, then-lightweight belt holder B.J. Penn put on a virtuoso performance, pummeling Sanchez mercilessly while stifling The Nightmare's attack.  Sanchez showed a great deal of heart, but in the final round the ringside physician called a stop to the fight, on the grounds of Good Gracious That's A Lot Of Blood.

Afterward, it quickly became evident that Penn had, among other things, literally split Diego's lip.  This is not metaphorical. There was a gap; I could have rested my beverage in there.

Not long after that melee in Memphis, Sanchez returned to the welterweight division, where he was promptly beaten by up-and-comer John Hathaway.

NO!

I realize it's easy for me to kid.  After all, I'm not the one in the Octagon. And Sanchez could surely rip my heart out and eat it before my spittle-flecked carcass hit the floor.

The truth is, Sanchez is a good fighter, with a lot of great wins—over the likes of Kenny Florian, Nick Diaz and Karo Parisyan—under his belt.  No sane person would ever question his will, and that's what he'll rely on to get back to the winner's circle this Saturday against Paulo Thiago at UFC 121.

More on that in a second.  In terms of the skills matchup, Diego's foundation is wrestling, though he also has respectable stand-up.  Thiago is a jiu-jitsu ace who also has a penchant for letting his hands go. But unlike the hot-blooded Sanchez, Thiago is a cooler customer, preferring patience and technique over blood and guts.

Sanchez has the better overall ground game.  Sanchez also has 15 more pounds than he had against Penn.  Sanchez will likely have a strength advantage.   Thiago does not have Penn's takedown defense—nobody does.  Ergo, the guess here is that Sanchez will execute against Thiago what he could not against Penn: bullrush the opponent and grind him out on the mat.  Thiago, although a jiu-jitsu black belt, has shown he can be outgrappled.

On the feet, one could make a case that Thiago has an advantage.  But in my estimation, that's more or less a wash if all other things are equal.

Which brings me back to my original point about Sanchez's heart and intensity.  As of now, we know two things about Diego Sanchez: He is desperate for a win, and he's an animal in the cage.  What do you know about desperate animals? 

That's why all other things are not, in fact, equal.  When Sanchez gets a head of steam in the ring, he is an absolute dervish (just ask Guida). My guess is we're going to see that dervish in full force at UFC 121.

Thiago does not have the skill set to turn Sanchez's forcefulness into recklessness. Whether the fight goes to the ground or stays upright, Sanchez only needs to be himself and, in the end, the spittle-flecked referee is going to raise The Nightmare's hand.

YES!