College Football Predictions: OK St. Tops Nebraska and Other Week 8 Upsets
Well, a funny thing happened on the way to the 2010 BCS Standings Kickoff Show . . .
Upsets.
Yes, not long after the college football brain trust explained to us how far Nebraska would rise, how Texas would further fall, Florida’s upward point movement, South Carolina’s rising fortunes and how Ohio State’s perfect record could be trumped by Boise State’s spotless traipse through (quite literally) the tulips; all hell broke loose on Saturday.
Texas screamed “run Gilbert, run!” and shocked Nebraska, Kentucky finally caught up with someone and it was the Gamecocks, Mississippi State upended Florida in the Swamp for the first time in 45 years and the number one Buckeyes ultimately only enjoyed the number one spot for under seven days with the striped nut falling dramatically to Wisconsin on the road.
And that takes us to Week 8 where 51 FBS teams will be involved in 102 contests and 18 will take the week off.
The following slideshow will once again go where no sensible football enthusiast would . . . attempting to pinpoint six Week 8 match-ups that present the best argument to result in an upset.
If that wasn’t enough to tickle your fancy this presentation will go one step further and rank these would-be shockers in order of probability or confidence (with the number one being awarded to the most assured pick and number six assigned to the weekly “ridiculous” pick).
Does it all seem just a little repetitious? Are you becoming weary friend?
Well, let us remember that only 83 precious days separate us from the final day of the 2010 College Football Season . . .
6. Air Force over TCU
1 of 6
@ TCU
TCU -19.5
Overall Series: TCU leads 6-2 and is 4-0 at home
TCU is a perfect 7-0 while Air Force is 5-2 with losses to Oklahoma and San Diego State.
The Bottom Line
Both these teams have been ultra successful running the ball. TCU ranks 10th overall in rushing yards while Air Force is number one.
The Horned Frogs must be given the nod offensively as they also have a viable passing attack where the Falcons have struggled through the air.
Defensively TCU has a definite advantage over the Falcons ranking 4th against the pass and 14th against the run while Air Force ranks 31st against the pass and a dismal 104th against the run.
So then how in the world does Air Force beat TCU?
Call it an unfounded hunch, but just who has TCU racked all these impressive stats up against?
The Horned Frogs seven foes have combined (minus the FCS opponent) for an 18-23 record thus far in 2010 and they average to rank 83rd in scoring offense and 78th in scoring defense.
Air Force is a solid team and despite their close 25-27 last week to a good San Diego State (4-2, 29th in scoring offense and 19th in scoring defense) team the Falcons are the only one of the two teams to face a top ranked opponent (Oklahoma, on the road) this year.
The Falcons 24-27 close loss to Oklahoma makes no more sense on paper than does the assertion that they can beat TCU.
Don’t be surprised if the Falcons give the Horned Frogs all they can handle.
5. Navy over Notre Dame
2 of 6
@ Navy
Notre Dame -6.5
Overall Series: Notre Dame leads 71-11 and is 19-4 at Navy
Notre Dame comes into its annual meeting with the Midshipmen 4-3 with losses to three solid teams while Navy is 4-2 suffering defeats at the hands of Maryland and Air Force.
The Bottom Line
If Notre Dame wants to score its fourth consecutive victory this season they will have to find a way to stop the Navy option attack which has the Midshipmen ranked 9th overall in rushing. The Irish are ranked 41st overall in running “D” and have had a practice squad executing the triple option for several weeks.
What may be overlooked in this game is Navy’s success thus far vs. the pass. Though the Irish are ranked 18th nationally in the air attack, the Midshipmen are 8th against the pass allowing only 160.2 yards per game thus far.
If Navy can thwart the Irish passing attack (especially in the first half when Navy has given up almost 70 percent of their points) and find some success running the option they will have a chance.
Notre Dame has allowed almost a third of opponents’ scoring in the fourth quarter; Navy should play to hard all the way to the final bell, even if they are behind, because anything could happen.
Navy has bested the Irish two out of their last three meetings but have not beat Notre Dame in Annapolis in 50 years. Ironically, the 50th anniversary of the 1960 victory is next Friday, October 29th.
4. Oklahoma State over Nebraska
3 of 6
@ Oklahoma State
Nebraska -5.5
Overall Series: Nebraska leads 36-5 and is 15-3 at Oklahoma State
No. 14 Oklahoma State is a perfect 6-0 and fresh off their first win over the Red Raiders in Lubbock since 1944.
No. 17 Nebraska, on the other hand, comes off a shocking loss to Texas in Lincoln in Week 7, a defeat that soiled their otherwise spotless season.
The Bottom Line
This game presents another set of intriguing match-ups: it’s the Cowboys number three ranked passing attack against the number one ranked Cornhusker passing “D”.
Conversely, it’s Nebraska’s number four ranked ground attack vs. OSU’s number 29th ranked rushing defense.
This game may just come down to which team can harness and ride their weaknesses better than the other.
Nebraska’s passing attack ranks 111th overall but will face the 102nd ranked pass defense and the Cowboys somewhat successful ground game will face the Cornhuskers somewhat successful rush defense.
What tips the scales in this clash is that (1). Nebraska has not yet faced a passing attack like that of the Cowboys and (2). OSU running back Kendall Hunter who has already amassed 830 yards and ten touchdowns, he will have to be stopped.
Can Nebraska choose a quarterback, throw the ball, catch it and then not drop it? If not they may just suffer a second consecutive defeat that two weeks ago seemed unthinkable.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
3. LSU over Auburn
4 of 6
@ Auburn
Auburn -6.5
Overall Series: LSU leads 24-18 but Auburn is 14-10 vs. LSU at home.
No. 6 LSU visits Auburn this weekend touting a perfect 7-0 record which includes several dramatic last minute victories.
No. 5 Auburn comes into Week 8 also a perfect 7-0 fresh off a bizarre 65-43 home victory over Arkansas.
The Bottom Line
Both these teams have won some very close games and this Tiger vs. Tiger match-up might be equally as dramatic.
But, that said, Les Miles’ apparent “deal with the devil” will have less to do with LSU’s chances at victory than does how these teams match-up.
Both teams have been successful running the ball and stopping the run. Though Auburn has been more effective through the air than has LSU the Cajun Tigers have been far better at defending the pass than their neighbors to the East.
If LSU can find some combination of quarterbacks and receivers that can be successful against the 114th ranked passing defense in college football they will win this game.
However, these two teams combine for 14 interceptions and 26 fumbles; so maybe it will just come down to who doesn’t give the ball (and the game) away.
2. Wisconsin over Iowa
5 of 6
@ Iowa
Iowa -5.5
Overall Series: Iowa leads 42-40 and is 25-15 at home
No. 10 Wisconsin will visit Iowa City this Saturday fresh off a stunning 31-18 victory over then No. 1 Ohio State. They are 6-1 overall with the only loss being to still perfect No. 8 Michigan State.
No. 13 Iowa is 5-1 with its only defeat coming at the hands of Arizona in Tucson in Week 3.
The Bottom Line
This game looks to be a close one. The Badgers have been more successful running the ball and the Hawkeyes have been very good at stopping opponents’ ground game.
The Hawkeyes have been marginally more successful through the air but overall have a balanced attack. The Wisconsin defense has been successful all season against both (though not to the extent that Iowa has).
A battle this closely matched will likely come down to turnovers and special teams. Both these teams have been careful with the football in 2010 but historically Ricky Stanzi has been more prone to interceptions than has Scott Tolzien.
The Badgers have to get off to a quick start offensively, they need to score and score early therefore forcing the Hawkeyes to count on Stanzi and hope he presses forcing mistakes.
Since 2002 only three out of the seven teams who have knocked off a number one ranked team have won the following week.
Wisconsin is in a perfect place to make this 4-8 as (1). Their win over the Buckeyes was not a “shocker” or a “stretch” and (2). They absolutely are talented enough to beat a good Iowa football team.
1. Kansas State over Baylor
6 of 6
@ Baylor
Baylor -8
Overall Series: Kansas State leads 6-1 and is 3-1 at Baylor
Kansas State is 5-1 heading south to Waco to face Baylor with their only loss coming in a thumping at the hands of a good Nebraska squad.
Baylor is 5-2 with losses to top ranked TCU and a disappointing Texas Tech team.
The Bottom Line
Baylor favored by eight points over anyone is hard to imagine, but the Bears are a team that have quietly got their act together while the rest of Texas college football is literally falling apart at the seams.
Regardless, this game comes down to a bit of a mismatch, at least on paper.
Kansas State is 16th overall in rushing yards and faces a Baylor “D” that has allowed 225.9 yards per game on the ground (this ranks them in the neighborhood of 90th overall).
The Baylor passing attack ranks 13th overall but will face a Wildcat defense that ranks 11th against the pass.
If Baylor is to prove the odds makers correct and beat a good KSU team they will need to be successful running the ball on a Wildcat defense that has been suspect against the run (222.7 ypg).
A victory in this game will be monumental for either squad: if KSU wins they become bowl eligible for the first time since 2006 and if Baylor wins they become bowl eligible for the first time since 1994.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
