UFC 120 Results: Carlos Condit, Dan Hardy and Five Future Scenarios

What a difference a fight makes.  After Carlos Condit's first-round knockout of Dan Hardy at UFC 120, both fighters are suddenly on much different trajectories than they were 24 hours prior.

Did Condit make his case for top contender status in the welterweight division?

And is Hardy still a contender himself, or is he now, after two straight losses, farther down the ladder?   Does he go for another toe-to-toe strikefest, or is it time to pit his allegedly evolving ground skills against a different brand of opponent?

We won't know, of course, for some time.  But that's what wild speculation is for.  Read on.  

Condit the Contender

Now 26-5, the former owner of the WEC welterweight belt—which he defended three times—is now 2-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming to Martin Kampmann via split decision.

Condit could get a rematch with the loser of next weekend's much-anticipated UFC 121 tilt between Kampmann and fellow UFC neophyte Jake Shields (who beat Condit by decision in 2006).  It is widely perceived that the Kampmann-Shields winner could be next in line for a title shot.  The loser (and Condit) may not be far behind.

To be certain, Condit has his own designs on the strap.  Although Condit and GSP train together in the Greg Jackson camp, Condit has repeatedly stated his willingness to face St. Pierre for the title.  If it is determined that Condit has earned that shot, I can't see GSP objecting, either.

Condit The Pretender

On the other hand (and there's always another hand), Condit's two UFC victories came over Rory McDonald and Jake Ellenberger—game fighters, sure, but not exactly mainstays on any Top 10 list.  The WEC welterweight rolls were not exactly packed with great names, either.

Hardy is clearly Condit's signature win thus far in the UFC.  Maybe another fight against a legit opponent—such as the winner of Thiago Alves-John Howard at UFC 124 in December—is in order before giving him Kampmann, Shields, Jon Fitch, or another elite matchup.

Hard-Luck Hardy?

Although The Outlaw was, as usual, quite the verbal provocateur prior to entering the octagon with Condit, he was also, as usual, a pretty good sport in defeat.  Hardy recognized Condit as the better fighter, adding that his game plan went awry when "I got punched in the face."

Your opinion of Hardy's status in the division probably hinges on whether you think he was bested by a superior fighter in Condit, or simply got caught.  After all, Hardy's own colossal knockout bid of a left hook was merely a few tenths of a second behind Condit's.

Prior to Saturday, Hardy's other loss came after going five rounds with welterweight kingpin St. Pierre—something a lot more highly ranked fighters were unable to accomplish.   

Before that, Hardy (now 23-8) ripped off wins over welterweight stalwarts Mike Swick, Marcus Davis, and Rory Markham, among others.  The losses have undoubtedly made his place in the division uncertain, but plain old bad luck can happen to anyone, and may have befallen Hardy.  Dana White and UFC matchmaker Joe Silva would do well to ensure that the Outlaw's next fight provides a definitive barometer (to the extent that it's possible) on Hardy's status.

Give Hardy a Striker

I am of the opinion that the welterweight division is simply too stacked to keep Hardy in the same ballpark with the Fitches, Shieldses, and, yes, Condits of the world.  If I ruled the UFC, he'd go down the ladder a ways and earn his way back into the title conversation.

Given that, the question is whether to feed The Outlaw another opponent willing to stand toe to toe, or give him someone who could test his (self-proclaimed) improving ground game.

If it is the former, Hardy himself said he would welcome a fight with Chris "Lights Out" Lytle, who didn't earn that nickname because he's a poor electrician.  Both are UFC veterans at this point, and a win would be a serious feather on either fighter's cap.  If fireworks are indeed the goal, strikers Dong Hyun Kim, Anthony Johnson, or the loser of Howard-Alves might also be good candidates.

Give Hardy a Grappler

Here is where the matchups for Hardy get really interesting.

For the time being, I don't think Hardy has earned a shot at Josh Koschek, though I may feel differently after Kos fights GSP this December.

In the meantime, Hardy has expressed a desire to fight Matt Hughes.  If Hughes feels like Hardy fits in with his Randy Couture Memorial Hall of Fame Late-Career Novelty Fight Tour And Victory Lap, then hey, I'm all for it. 

Fresh off a great win over up-and-comer John Hathaway, Mike Pyle may be able to provide Hardy with a stiff ground test as well.  Ricardo Almeida might also be an option.  Any of these guys would provide the contrast that will really tell the tale on Hardy's abilities as a mixed martial artist in the UFC.