SRS: Pittsburgh Steelers Climbs To Top Without Playing; Ravens Fall To Two

Not a whole lot to talk about for these rankings (College had plenty).  I’m thinking of making divisions weighted a bit more, but that might be an end of season change rather than an in season change.  The only surprises are Dallas (eight), Houston (three), Jets (UR), and Falcons (UR).  If you already know how the system works, scroll down, otherwise, read away!

Just what we need, another blowhard who thinks he can give us accurate rankings using some sort of crude rationale and probably a lot of bias, just to make himself feel cool.  I know that’s what I’d say if I saw this.  I’m not even sure I could convince you otherwise.  However, I’ll do my best. 

First, the easy one, the whole point of me starting a ranking system 15 years ago was to remove any and all bias for college football (that’s what they all say).  So I decided to try my list with the pros as well.  My favorite team is the St. Louis Rams, so I doubt you're going to see them on this list anytime soon.

I’ve tried to come up with the rationale that every sports announcer I’ve ever heard brings up.  Conference rankings (check), Road vs. Away (check), and who did you play (double-check).  As I said before, I’ve been doing this privately for over 15 years, and every year there have been slight changes to it.  Usually by the end of the season, I see more improvements I can make, and I do that for the following season.  By no stretch is it perfect, but I think it’s getting there.

So what are the specifics?  It starts by generating a ranking for each division.  This is done by generating a win-loss record for each division against the other divisions.  This is modified by determining who those wins are against.  This is mostly because of college football's big time teams tending to play cream puffs to build up their record, so I'm going to use a college football example:  The Big Ten loses some of its power by scheduling lots of MAC Teams.  I then take a ranking of that value.  As of 10/12/10, the divisional rankings are as follows:

1.  AFC North (LW: 1)

1.  AFC South (2)

3.  NFC East (6)

4.  AFC West (4)

5.  AFC East (4)

5.  NFC South (3)

7.  NFC North (7)

8.  NFC West (8)

After determining the division rankings, I generate values that a team would receive for playing another team.  Values are generated for a Home Win, a Home Loss, a Road Win, and a Road Loss.  Each of the values are derived from the Home Win, which is formed by taking the teams place in the division (First, Second, Third, etc.), inverting it so more points are awarded for beating the better team, and multiplying it by the inversed conference ranking.  For example, if the first place team in the first place division is Baltimore.  If a team beats Baltimore on the road, they will earn 64 points.  This is because Baltimore is in first place (inversed = four multiplied by inversed conference ranking = eight, and multiplied by two because it would be on the road, 8 * 4 * 2 = 64). 

Losses are similar though there is no inverting.  So if a team loses, it will only cause them to lose one point (Place in Conference = one, Conference Rank = one, 1 * 1 = 1). A Home win is the same as a road win, except the value is not multiplied by two, and a Home Loss takes the Road Loss and multiplies it by two.  

Did you follow all of that?  If not, don’t worry about it, just know that it is under constant improvement, I’ll go in reverse order, like a Top Ten list:

9. Tampa Bay (3-1), 44: (LW: --), Won AT Cincinnati (32); Best Win = @Cincinnati; Worst Loss = Pittsburgh

9.  Green Bay (3-2), 44: (LW: --), Lost AT Washington (-3); BW = @Philadelphia; WL = @Chicago

8   Dallas (1-3), 45: (LW: 6), Lost vs. Tennessee (-2); BW = @Houston; WL = Chicago

7.  Tennessee (3-2), 55: (LW: —), Won AT Dallas (12); BW = @Giants; WL = Denver

6.  Denver (2-3), 63: (LW: 9), Lost AT Baltimore (-1); BW = @Tennessee; WL = Indianapolis

5.  Indianapolis (3-2), 72: (LW: 6), Won vs. Kansas City (20); BW = @Denver; WL = Jacksonville

4.  New York Giants (3-2), 73: (LW: —), Won AT Houston (64); BW = @Houston, WL = Tennessee

3.  Houston (3-2), 80: (LW: —), Lost vs. Giants (-6); BW = @Washington; WL = Dallas

2.  Baltimore (4-1), 100: (LW: 1), Win vs. Denver (15); BW = @Pittsburgh; WL = @Cincinnati

1.  Pittsburgh (3-1), 102: (LW: 2), BYE; BW = @Tennessee; WL = Baltimore