Iowa Hawkeyes or Michigan Wolverines: Which One Loss Team Makes the BCS?

The Oct. 16 meeting of the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Michigan Wolverines will have BCS implications—perhaps not Top 10, but certainly in the Top 25.  Iowa didn't complete their comeback attempt on the road against Arizona, and Michigan looked confused in their 34-17 loss to Michigan State.

The Hawkeyes are reminiscent of the tortoise in the old parable "The Tortoise and the Hare." They rarely impress and noticeably lack style points, but behind a staunch defense and an offense that doesn't over-perform, still gets the job done as they grind through opponents. Iowa was perhaps the quietest team to start 9-0 (2009) ever.

The Wolverines, at least for the time, look more like the hare—an offensive explosion whose bursts of speed might not be quite enough to win the metaphorical race. When the hare (Michigan) wants to, it can sprint and appear infinitely ahead of the opponent, but the time in between sprints (i.e. the time when Michigan's defense or special teams are on the field) spells doom for the Wolverines.

The end of the story?  Tortoise beats the hare [to everyone's surprise].

What may not be surprising is where Michigan and Iowa stand right now, and where they stand on Oct. 17.

Perhaps the most integral factor in determining the BCS standing is a team's strength of schedule (SoS).  According to Team Rankings, Michigan ranks No. 30 and Iowa No. 19.  This, however, includes teams left to play on the schedule. Iowa has beaten teams with overall SoS of 38.2, 55.8, 5.0 and 28.6.  This is good for a cumulative of 127.6.

Michigan has beaten teams with overall SoS of 15.9, 34.3, -2.6 and 16.6 for a cumulative 64.2.

This bodes well for Iowa, as the opponents they beat have overall tougher schedules.  If they win, Iowa wins.

Michigan, however, has faced relatively weak opponents—while it is best for the Wolverines if they win, it still isn't going to impress the computers much even if their previous opponents win (except perhaps Michigan State, which doesn't really benefit UM that much considering they lost).

Alright, so point goes to Iowa for previous opponent's strength of schedule.

What about the future?

Michigan faces teams that are No. 19, No. 51, No. 27, No. 65, No. 25 and No.5 in terms of SoS.

Iowa faces teams that are No. 30, No. 25, No. 10, No. 81, No. 74, No. 5 and No. 93 in terms of SoS.

This means that if Michigan and Iowa both continue to win, Michigan has a much better chance of catching and leapfrogging Iowa in the BCS than Iowa does of maintaining a lead over Michigan.  Again, this is provided both teams win.

Point goes to Michigan for future opponent SoS.

Perhaps even more telling is the teams that Michigan and Iowa have lost to.

Iowa lost to Arizona, who just lost to unranked Oregon State. Arizona is No. 24 in the Congrove Computer Rankings.

Michigan lost to Michigan State, who is undefeated, and ranked No. 18 in the aforementioned computer rankings.

Translation: Numbers-wise, Michigan's only loss is much better-looking (for the time being) than Iowa's only loss.

Point to Michigan for that.

Iowa's opponents average points are 65.42.

Michigan's opponents average points are 65.61.

Point to Michigan for that.

Iowa does gain much-needed ground in the subjective (human) polls. Iowa is ranked No. 15 in the AP, No. 14 in Coaches. Michigan is NR (actually No. 26 in AP poll) and No. 24 in the Coaches poll.

Here's the Summary

The BCS is based on subjective polls, computer rankings, strength of schedule and number of losses.

Iowa has the edge in the subjective polls and overall strength of schedule. Michigan's schedule down the stretch is more difficult, so, provided they win, they can close that gap. In terms of computer rankings, Iowa is ranked higher, but Michigan has beat opponents who rank (slightly) higher on average. They both have one loss, so are tied in that respect.

Boils down to Iowa being in the BCS and Michigan being right there. Iowa will likely be from No. 12 to No. 16, whereas Michigan will be looking at No. 25 to No. 30.

Also, a lot depends on exactly what happens this Saturday as well.  A two-loss Iowa drops below a one-loss Michigan, and Michigan has virtually no chance of catching Iowa should they suffer a loss.