NFL Week 5 Picks: Moss Has To Go Through Revis Island Before He Can Go Home

As if the Vikings-Jets game needed anymore hype.

What looked like a Super Bowl preview when the schedule was announced in April is now a game with many more smaller stories.

There's Brett Favre making his return to the Jets, a team he only played with for one season, yet had a huge impact on.

Then there's Randy Moss making his return in the purple and gold that he debuted in 12 years ago. But before he comes home, he must return to Revis Island, where he had one of the best catches of the still nascent NFL season only three weeks ago.

This could still be an NFL preview, for the Vikings are only one game behind the Packers and Bears, yet saw the Bears defeat the Packers in Week 3, followed by the Bears losing to the Giants in the same stadium that they will be playing in come Monday night. A win in New Jersey gets them back into the division race. It's important to note as well that the Vikings have faced neither Chicago nor Green Bay this season, and Sidney Rice could be back next month.

(What Moss, Harvin, Rice, Peterson, and Favre: Sounds like the makings for a scary offense. Even if this team finishes 9-7 and sneaks into the NFC's last playoff spot, a great possibility because outside of Atlanta, Green Bay, and New Orleans the NFC is pretty mediocre this year, the Vikes would be the proverbial "team you do not want to face in the playoffs," which with baseball in the middle of its postseason, I should ask, what team in the postseason do you want to face? Aren't all the postseason teams there because they're good? Of course there's one exception, whichever team comes out of the NFC West this year. Whether its Seattle, St. Louis, or Arizona, those are teams you probably would love to play in the postseason. Tangent over.)

Meanwhile the Jets are flying high. As it stands they're 3-0 in their division with three consecutive wins coming against divisional foes. And lucky for them, the Patriots and Dolphins have a bye week, meaning they have the chance to move up to a game up on the Patriots (a game because they have half a game based on the tie breaker since they beat the Pats already, and the half game they'd get from Monday night if they win) and two games up on the Dolphins (they're already up one game, plus half a game from beating them, and the other half if they win Monday night.)

Sounds like two hungry teams. More on that when I get to that game. But first, here now the picks for Week 5.

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

BUFFALO (+1.5) over Jacksonville

But Tom, how could you pick the Bills, who are win-less, to beat a Jaguars team that beat Indianapolis last week? Easy: Letdown game for Jags plus Bills at home against a team that they can match up well with equals Buffalo upset. A slight one too as you can tell by the line.

Bills 20 Jaguars 17.

CINCINNATI (-6.5) over Tampa Bay

The Steelers knocked the Bucs off that undefeated cloud they were on a couple of weeks ago, then they had a bye week to think it over. Meanwhile the Bengals lost to the Browns and need this game in order to stay competitive with Baltimore and Pittsburgh. I say the Bengals, at home, will be more desperate, besides they have more talent.

Bengals 24 Bucs 10.

Green Bay (-2.5) over WASHINGTON

Are the Redskins overrated? Yes. It's great that McNabb won in Philly but the Packers seem to be on a completely higher level than the Redskins (and the rest of the NFC East this year, which is worse than expected.)

Packers 38 Redskins 20.

Kansas City (+7.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

This is more a statement about the how good the Chiefs actually are than it is about whether or not the Colts are still elite. Yes, I think the Chiefs are for real and not only can take the AFC West, but will. This game will be a close one.

However, the '72 Dolphins can break the champagne out this weekend, and will have Peyton Manning to thank for it.

Colts 26 Chiefs 24.

Atlanta (-3) over CLEVELAND

Alright, I understand, Cleveland is a good-bad team (meaning a bad team that's going to fight you for four quarters and not just roll over.) But Atlanta is an elite team. If an elite team plays a good-bad team, you can't have an elite team as only three point favorites.

Falcons 27 Browns 14.

Denver (+7) over BALTIMORE

However in the case of this game, while the Ravens are still elite, the Broncos aren't a good-bad team, rather they're a decent middle of the pack team. The Ravens being seven point favorites at home is just about right, and I see the Broncos losing by slightly less.

Ravens 26 Broncos 20.

HOUSTON (-3) over New York Football Giants

Great game by the Giants front seven. Too bad Houston has a better offensive line than the Bears.

Texans 28 Giants 17.

St. Louis (+3) over DETROIT

I feel bad for the Lions. If they could use their spread record, they'd be 3-1. Instead, their real record is 0-4, well, 0-5. Something about these Rams tells me that Missouri could have both their teams in the postseason. No really. Yes I know the Rams and the Chiefs have been terrible the last few years but this year they're both hitting the 2008 Miami Dolphins formula of easy schedules plus bad division plus a few breaks happening to go their way. Plus the Rams are due for their first road victory this week after going almost two years without one, and Sam Bradford is for real.

Rams 26 Lions 20

Chicago (+1) over CAROLINA

I know, Todd Collins will be behind center. But the Panthers are terrible. Defensive struggle this game will be. Talk like Yoda I just did. Bored I am. Terrible game that is because.

Bears 13 Panthers 3.

ARIZONA (+7) over New Orleans

This week I've actually seen a story asking, "what's wrong with the Saints?" Now I can't answer that question, but I have a question to pose: Why are you asking what's wrong with a team that is 3-1 and only lost to probably the best team in the NFC? What if this is a team that's not so much trying to put on a show but just win? Same thing will happen in Arizona Sunday.

Saints 28 Cardinals 24.

OAKLAND (+6.5) over San Diego

Don't the Raiders, no matter how bad they've been, always play the Chargers close at home? Won't it be easier to not only do that but also steal a win from them since they don't have Tomlinson, who's a certified Raider-killer?

Raiders 35 Chargers 30.

DALLAS (-7.5) over Tennessee

Now that they got that monkey off their back for the win, we now enter the part of the Cowboys schedule where they start dominating for a three to four week stretch and make everyone forget about their terrible 0-2 start before starting to choke again.

Cowboys 35 Titans 10.

Philadelphia (+3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers are the anti-Chiefs, they were supposed to have everything go their way, they were supposed to win their division. They were supposed to dominate their division. 

But when you're supposed to do things, then they end up not happening and you find yourself at 0-4, it only gets worse. How do I know? I go back to my experiences watching the Dolphins, 2006 to be exact.

You see that year they were supposed to be a playoff team, they were supposed to even be a Super Bowl team according to Sports Illustrated. They traded for Daunte Culpepper and had all the right tools around them. But then they lost their first game. And their second. They won their third but then lost the next one and lost Culpepper for the year. They almost bounced back but didn't, and before you know it Nick Saban was hightailing out of Miami to Alabama and the Dolphins would go 1-15 the next season.

Now look at this years 49ers. They lost their first game, not just a loss, but a destruction. They lost their second game, their third, almost win their fourth but so many things went wrong. Now 49ers fans will try to say it won't get any worse, but, it will. It only gets worse. Stick a fork in San Francisco, this Sunday night game will be a funeral for the Singletary regime. Yes, Kevin Kolb will lead the Eagles to victory.

Eagles 26 49ers 7.

GAME OF THE WEEK

NEW YORK JETS (-4) over Minnesota

No more "Locks of the week" instead I'll just pick out the best game of the week, which this one will be.

Now believe it or not, the Vikings won't be completely dead if they lose this game (and they will.) They still have five division games left, and they have the Cowboys next week, a team they're known for doing well against.

The Jets meanwhile have the extra motivation needed to win a game like this. Why do I say win a game like this, well, because normally a team like the Jets (good and comfortable in their standing) might not play as well as a team like the Vikings (somewhat desperate.) 

However this Jets team probably doesn't want their visit to New England to be a must win, nor do they want to host the Dolphins in a must win. They want to step on the neck of the AFC East and take it as soon as they can. Until the division is wrapped up, this team isn't taking their foot off the gas. They're hungry to justify the talk and bravado, it's been showing in their play.

Plus they actually trust their young quarterback and he's rewarding them for that. A certain offensive coordinator and a certain head coach in South Florida might want to consider that. I mean Sanchez looked bad last season, yet this year he's been looking pretty good. Call me crazy but, I think he'll keep this up.

Jets 38 Vikings 30.

MIAMI DOLPHINS GAME OF THE WEEK

BYE, along with NEW ENGLAND, PITTSBURGH, and SEATTLE.

Oh, well I'm going to have to write about something, wait...

Florida State (+6) over THE U

Relax Canes fans, there's a reason why I'm predicting the spread like this.

As well as a reason why the indent here is like this!

Canes 30 FSU 29.

LAST WEEKS RECORD (vs. Spread): 8-6 (8-6)

OVERALL RECORD (vs. Spread): 34-28 (31-27-1)

This was a Dolfan Diaries entry. Thomas Galicia will enjoy this Sunday and plans to enjoy Saturday Night as well. Agree? Disagree? Leave a comment. Follow him on twitter, @thomasgalicia.