Liver's Week 15 NFL Picks: Bills to Cover Against Browns

I’m starting to get depressed.

And I’m NOT talking about my shitty record picking games this year, the goddamned TV writers' strike, or my rising medical costs for postgame injuries/bar fights.

Can you believe there’s only three weeks left in the regular season?

Then again, if you take the Cowboys' success out of the equation, this has been the worst NFL season I've ever seen.

One dominant team, three strong teams, four good teams, and 24 mediocre to downright unwatchable outfits. For all the crazy people like me out there who just LOVE high spreads...I give you SEVEN games this week with double digit spreads, including the Mangini Bowl.

I hate high spreads like I hate insanely gorgeous women—they're too unpredictable, you’re never quite secure, and the potential for embarrassing disaster never goes away.
 
By the way, when the hell did Keyshawn Johnson earn the right to criticize Terrell Owens? Who the hell does he think he is knocking a REAL WIDE RECEIVER...and throwing his fat mouth into the “Does Parcells deserve credit for the Cowboys' success?” debate?

Normally I cringe whenever T.O. flaps his gums, but he was dead on in his comeback. Keyshawn wants to be Playmaker for ESPN, but get serious—only Michael Irvin can be Playmaker.

Keyshawn, I know the Tuna sits next to you now, but you don’t have to kiss his fat ass.  He can defend himself.

Does Parcells deserve credit? Of course he does...TO A POINT. But the 2006 Cowboys team tuned him out towards the end of the season.

The coach stubbornly stuck to his outdated ways after that Saints debacle—and THAT, not Tony Romo’s fumble, cost the Cowboys a playoff win.

Sure, Parcells put the team together, and saw the potential in Romo where others didn't. But he didn’t want T.O. And should I mention some of his stellar draft moves—like taking Julius Jones over Stephen Jackson (that still infuriates me), or grabbing Jacob Rodgers and Marcus Spears?

Keyshawn is dumber than I know he knows he is if he expects people to discount what Wade Phillips has done in Dallas. The Cowboys wouldn’t be 12-1 right now with Parcells at the helm.

Phillips knows how to deal with players without resorting to Mussolini and Gestapo tactics. After four years of Parcells’ tired act, the Cowboys got sick of him.

Now  that he's gone, there’s an ease about a franchise that'd been plagued by more double-talk and secrets than the goddamned CIA.
 
Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan, Kiefer Sutherland, Bobby Petrino, Bud Selig, Roger Clemens, ALL college presidents and BCS conference commissioners, Roger Goodell, and Travis Henry's nine kids and nine mommas would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.



Last week against the spread: 8-8

2007 record against the spread: 94-104-10

Sunday, December 16, 2007


Atlanta (+13 1⁄2) at Tampa Bay

Here’s a joke: What’s short, fat, cowardly, and likes to run when times get tough?

The Bobby Petrino doll.

Pull the string and watch his hands rise to cover his eyes while his players berate him. Pull his leg and he does a Hog dance.

I’m sure it’s gonna be real popular with the kids.

Then again, coaching D’Angelo Hall is enough to make anyone quit the NFL. Kind of like being an actor and working with George Lucas.

Meanwhile, Tampa gets Jeff Garcia back—and not a moment too soon as they try to nail down the NFC South.

Pick: Atlanta
 

Seattle at Carolina (+7 1⁄2)

Don’t look now NFC, but Seattle is peaking at just the right time.

Don’t look now Vinny Testaverde, but Matt Moore, who looked good in Cowboys training camp, should be starting in place of your useless 43-year-old ass.

Pick: Seattle
 

Jacksonville (+3 1⁄2) at Pittsburgh

So was that the real Steelers team we saw get aired out by the Pats last week?

It doesn’t get much easier, as Pittsburgh faces the Jags in what could be a Wild Card preview. If that was Pittsburgh’s best war face last week, they need a pep talk from Gunny Hartman.

"You don’t scare me, work on it."

Pick: Jacksonville
 

Green Bay at St. Louis (+10)

I think I’m in the mood for a Tequila Sunrise.

Don’t worry—my drinking has NOTHING to do with my being unhappy and depressed. I am not now, nor have I EVER been, happy.

Just wanted to clear that up.

Pick: St. Louis
 

Baltimore at Miami (+3 1⁄2)

IF Baltimore loses this game, Brian “I’m a Genius” Billick no longer gets to use that nickname.

Come to think of it, he won’t get to use the job title of “Ravens Head Coach” anymore either.

Pick: Baltimore
 

N.Y. Jets (+23 1⁄2) at New England

As if this game weren't juicy enough—now we get another SpyGate, only this time it’s the Jets who were apparently caught spying on the Patriots.

At least Eric Mangini learned from the master. Too bad he doesn’t have a team that can compete.

I know the Eagles and Ravens covered 20-point spreads against New England, but this game, as Doc Holiday would say, is going to be played for blood.

Though the sanctimonious son of a bitch would never admit it, Bill Belichick is going to take great joy in running this one up. The Pats could score 100 if they want to.

Strange thing is, a lot of people are going to be watching—not to see thegame but to see the freak show. Think the Jets players will decide to take out some Pats, as New York has nothing to lose?

Hell, if I’m a Jets fan, I want to see some of my players get tossed out for late hits and crack-backs. At least it shows they've got a little fight in ‘em.

Pick: Patriots
 

Arizona (+3 1⁄2) at New Orleans

The loser of this game can start making tee times.

Both teams are 6-7 and need to win out if they hope to make the playoffs. This might actually be an entertaining game. You know both sides can score, so defense is out the window.

Pick: New Orleans
 

Buffalo (+5 1⁄2) at Cleveland

Who would’ve thought both of these teams would have something to play for in Week 15?

The Browns have already assured Dallas of a low first-round pick, so wishing them losses won’t matter now...and I admit it would be cool to see them in the playoffs.

And if it’s San Diego they face—who knows. I’m not gonna say San Diego is an automatic win in that game.

Buffalo, meanwhile, is trying to pass Cleveland for that last Wild Card spot. Kudos to Dick Jauron for pulling his team out of a 1-4 hole.

I actually feel bad (SORT OF) that the Bills lost that Cowboys game , as that would've given them an 8-5 record to match the Browns.

Maybe Trent Edwards has something in his bag after all. 

Pick: Buffalo
 

Tennessee at Kansas City (+4)

It would seem that the honeymoon is over for the Amazing Vince, as he's being criticized for not being a pocket passer.

The Titans won’t make the playoffs this year, but give that man just SOME talent on the offensive side of the ball and he can win. I’ve seen it happen.

Pick: Tennessee
 

Indianapolis at Oakland (+10 1⁄2)

And the latest and lamest excuse Lane Kiffin has come up with for NOT playing No. 1 draft pick JaMarcus Russell?

It’s too cold.

Say what?

I think what Lane meant to say was, “We have no offensive line and we SUCK.”  That’s better, Lane.

Pick: Oakland
 

Philadelphia (+10 1⁄2) at Dallas

And the next stop on the Donovan McNabb Eagles Farewell Tour—Dallas.

Given the gash that was the Dallas defense last week, the Eagles should be licking their chops.

Last week’s victory from the jaws of defeat against the Lions was nice, but should be treated like the Buffalo victory: as a loss.

The Cowboys may have wrapped up the NFC East, but they still need two more wins or a Green Bay loss and a win to clinch home-field and the all-important bye. The Dallas defense look at that bye like a junkie eyeballs a nickel bag of heroin.

Pick: Dallas
 

Detroit (+10) at San Diego

I can’t decide whether LT getting up like a pouting baby when Philip Rivers came to the bench was funny or pathetic. 

Pick: Detroit
 

Washington (+4 1⁄2) at N.Y. Giants

I’ll admit it—the Giants are starting to get something going, and could be a TOUGH playoff opponent.

The then again, Eli Manning is still their QB. The "Duh" face doesn’t seem to scare anyone come January. 

Pick: NY Giants
 

Monday, December 17, 2007
 

Chicago (+10) at Minnesota

And for all those Kyle Orton fans out there...

Okay, maybe Minnesota could sneak into the playoffs. They’ve got the No. 1 run game in the league with Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson, and Tarvaris Jackson isn’t losing games for them.

Still, I don’t see them beating anyone in the Wild Card round.

The Bears, for their part, can only dream of Donovan McNabb coming to bail them out next year.

Pick: Minnesota