Fantasy Baseball: Random Thoughts

Just some thoughts on the comings and goings of current games and future stars...

• Last week, I wrote about the inconsistency of closers, and Sunday night was an excellent display of that. First, Mariano Rivera blew a save after allowing two runs in the ninth inning. That was followed by Jonathan Papelbon blowing his eighth save of the season and showing virtually no command of his fastball in the process. Papelbon appeared to have Alex Rodriguez struck out several times, but home plate umpire Phil Cuzzi's strike-zone seemed to shrink with each passing inning. Papelbon still didn't pitch well though—showing that, again, closers are risky.
• How the Rangers approach first base this off-season is going to be intriguing. Chris Davis has failed in each of the last two seasons, resulting in demotions in both instances. Mitch Moreland has seven home runs in 130 at-bats, but still has just a .246 batting average. The Rangers have proven they can win with what largely amounts to a hole at the position, but that is not the way they will want to proceed. It would be interesting to see if they make a play for Adam Dunn. Regardless, Moreland and Davis owners should be concerned heading in to 2011.
• Jair Jurrjens is going to end up as a solid buy-low candidate next season. He has been crippled by injuries this year to the point that he is being passed over on the playoff push. The Braves plan to skip him because of the knee injury that is still ailing him. You do not simply forget how to pitch. Look at this as a lost season for him.
• Be careful in picking your starters this week, especially for teams that are virtually assured of playoff spots. Teams like the Phillies, Twins, and Rangers will look to look to rest players where they can, and that can spell danger for those that are in the finals. Playoff races are your friends, so look to Atlanta, San Diego, San Francisco, and even Colorado for some help. The Yankees are likely to push their guys at least a bit before heading into the weekend as well.
• Aroldis Chapman continues to remind me of Steve Nebraska from The Scout. A fastball is still a fastball and at some point teams are going to get this more than figured out. His secondary offerings still require a lot of work, but it is certainly something that he will be able to learn on the job. I expect that he will be in the rotation next season, but expect some growing pains.
• The more I watch Ryan Kalish, the more I like him as a player. Kalish may only be showing an average near .260, but he is making an impact when in the lineup. He took advantage of a distracted Rivera to steal two key bases Sunday night and is playing excellent outfield defense. There are plenty of questions as to how Boston will look at their outfield in 2011, but Kalish should be more than a fourth outfielder in that rotation. A trade of Jacoby Ellsbury or a release of Mike Cameron could make that easier.
• I'm not completely convinced that Brandon Allen is an outfielder in Arizona, but the Diamondbacks need to do something to get his bat in the lineup. Allen mashed better than 30 home runs in Triple-A but found himself blocked at first base by Adam LaRoche. Arizona has had him in left field, a spot that has been somewhat of a revolving door in recent years. He is ready to contribute, and has slightly more value if he can retain first base and outfield eligibility.
• Someone is going to overpay for Adrian Beltre this off-season, and then fantasy owners will do the same in 2011. Third base is a tough position, and Beltre is now a 100-RBI man, but the fact remains that his best seasons have come in contract years and he has a propensity for getting hurt. He was a late-round gem this season, but the price tag next year will be steep.
• Took a quick look at the ESPN Player Rater for starting pitchers today. While we may see fewer overall turnover from 2009 to 2010, there are still plenty of names on this list that did not appear there last season. In fact, 10 of the top 25 pitchers on that list were not there last year. Mat Latos and Roy Oswalt both joined the list, as did Jonathan Sanchez and Clay Buchholz. Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, and Josh Beckett all fell off. Just more proof that pitchers are nowhere near as consistent as position players from year to year.
• Finally, if you're looking for a way to make these games more fun, check out my friends at BetUs.com for some Online Betting here: http://www.betus.com/