Chicago Bears: Analyzing Sunday's Matchup With NY Giants—Can Bears Go 4-0?
Amazingly, Da Bears sit at 3-0, the only undefeated team in the NFC. Sure, they've been winning ugly, but as they say, a win is a win and we'll certainly take it.
But this is not a dominant team by any means. In fact, a Lovie Smith-coached team will likely never be dominating. Smith's teams play a "bend but don't break" type of defense and as longtime Bears fans will attest to, we like an attacking defense that gets after the QB.
But this isn't the Bears of the 80s and Ron Rivera is long gone, so this isn't even the Bears of 2005. But don't despair—the good news is that teams like this can win the Super Bowl but they need to continue to win games the way they have been doing, which is by taking the ball away and preventing the other team from scoring despite all that "bending" they do.
Meanwhile, it's just so damn difficult to predict what will happen from week to week based on what has happened with this team so far.
In Game 1 against Detroit, the Bears won by virtue of the right call but a bad rule.
Even against Dallas, while the Bears played their best game of the young season, Mike Martz had to adjust for a line that wasn't protecting Jay Cutler and the defense gave up a ton of yards.
Versus the Packers Monday night, Green Bay basically self-destructed. Not to take anything away from the Bears who contributed to the mistakes that the Pack made, but without some of those penalties, Cutler throws a couple more interceptions and the Bears lose.
Of course, none of that matters in the end, does it? But it makes the predicting business even harder than it already is.
Look, we all want to just enjoy the team's success but in order to objectively analyze an upcoming game, one needs to temporarily throw their fandom to the side and take a cold, hard look at the facts.
As Jackie Gleason would say, "and away we go"...
The Bears On Offense vs. The Giants Defense
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Former Giants defensive end Michael Strahan says the Giants lack a leader in the clubhouse. Let's hope that isn't a wake-up call until after Sunday's game.
On offense, Martz has shown the rarely seen (at least around these parts) ability to adjust as the game goes on. Still, the Bears continue to display the maddening tendency to not be able to score touchdowns in the red zone.
For crying out loud, if they get near the goal line, can they PLEASE give the ball to someone other than Matt Forte? Try Chester Taylor, try a defenseman, anybody...just sayin'.
Meanwhile, Cutler has to make good decisions and take advantage of a Giants defense that will be focused on stopping the pass.
And the Giants do a decent job of that, ranking fourth in the league in passing yardage, though they rank only 17th in terms of yards per attempt allowed.
Against the Packers, Cutler got away with a couple passes that could have been intercepted (he finished with one) though he did play better against the Packers’ nickel-and-dime looks than last year, when the Packers also abandoned their base 3-4 front and went with five d-backs.
You can expect the Giants to do the same, especially considering that the Bears have done nothing to make the Giants fear their running game. One has to believe that eventually the Bears will have to somehow find some success running the football, and this game could be it versus a reeling Giants team in disarray.
The Giants rank 26th in the league in rushing yardage allowed, though teams have averaged only 3.8 yards per attempt which ranks 11th.
But the offensive line is still struggling and will need to keep Cutler upright to be successful.
Overall, since the Giants defense has been bad thus far, you have to give the edge to the Bears here.
Be Wary Of a Letdown
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Sure, this Giants team is reeling, but having lost two consecutive games, they are a desperate team that should be hungry for a win.
Meanwhile, it is not beyond the realm of possibility for the Bears to have a letdown following a victory over their arch-rival division foes. Being undefeated means that teams will be even more up for each game, and while the Bears' confidence should be high, they cannot take the Giants lightly.
For their part, the Bears' players said all the right things after Monday's game. They espoused the words you'd want to hear about not getting too high and admitting that they hadn't really accomplished anything yet.
The Giants Offense vs. The Bears Defense
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The Bears allowed over 400 yards of offense against the Cowboys and 316 yards in the air against Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers, but don't think that Brian Urlacher cares about that.
"Yards don’t really matter, points matter. Don’t care, people can think what they want to,” Urlacher said, according to ESPN Chicago. “We’ll just keep going out there and playing hard every week. We didn’t play good at times, but we played good enough to win.”
That's because they are adept at taking the ball away, something they need to continue to do versus the error-prone Giants. Urlacher played well again and Julius Peppers was all over the place, though he hasn't had the sacks to show it thus far.
Will Tommie Harris and Zack Bowman play? No one knows, but it has to be a strong message to the rest of the team that if you don't produce the Bears won't tolerate it.
Plus it gave Tim Jennings an opportunity and he came through. Last week it was DJ Moore, then Jennings, so who will it be against the Giants?
Offensively, the Giants rank ninth in passing yardage, though those six interceptions thrown by Eli Manning have hurt. Meanwhile, the Giants have been better than the Bears running the ball, averaging 4.3 yards per attempt. Again, mistakes have hurt and they've lost two fumbles so far.
The Giants had no turnovers against the Titans and are minus-4 in turnover ratio, which ranks them 27th in the NFL.
Edge to Bears.
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Rating The Coaches
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Bears coach Lovie Smith has been aggressive, going for it on 4th-and-a-foot in two games and falling short. Still, Lovie has a strong supporting cast of coaches that include many former head coaches and so you have to give the overall nod to the Bears' staff versus the Giants'.
One thing I like about Lovie and crew this year is that they are holding players accountable. You don't play well, you don't play, it's as simple as that.
Meanwhile, there is dissension on the Giants' side.
Last week, Antrel Rolle questioned the team's preparation and desire to play for Tom Coughlin. This week, the Giants safety insisted the team is completely behind Coughlin, but in the same interview said that all the players weren’t on the same page.
Many players privately wish that control freak, er, disciplinarian Coughlin would ease up just a bit and relax for once. In many ways, he is the exact opposite of Lovie Smith.
The Giants have been anything but disciplined thus far so they do not seem to be heeding their head coach's message, as they have racked up personal foul penalties and played very sloppily at times.
As a long-time critic of Lovie's, I can't believe I'm writing this, but edge to the Bears.
Special Teams
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Robbie Gould has been slightly less than "Good as Gold" so far, though he did hit the game-winner in the win over Green Bay. Still, you have to like your chances when he kicks a field goal. He is three for five on the season.
Meanwhile, it was great to see Devin Hester finally return a punt for a touchdown again. It's hard to believe that he was once on his way to being the all-time greatest return man in history. Maybe this gets him back on the right track.
Historically, Dave Taub's special teams units have been one of the Bears' brightest spots. And Julius Peppers blocked a field goal so the Bears unit can be a good one.
The Giants are averaging 42.3 yards per punt to the Bears' 43.9, but the Giants unit only allows 5.9 return yards per punt, which ranks sixth in the league. The Bears rank 28th in the same category.
Against kickoffs, however, both teams are similar, with the Bears holding a very slight advantage.
The Giants are a perfect six for six in field goals with a long of 52 yards.
But read this from Tim Smith of the NY Daily News:
"The special teams aren't very special. When it comes to where their opponents begin their drives after a kickoff, the Giants rank No. 29 (30.1 yard line), and where the Giants' offense starts it ranks No. 31 (21.5 yard line). The holder, punter Matt Dodge, took a delay of game penalty on a field-goal attempt against the Titans. When the ball was moved back, the Giants missed the kick."
Ugh.
The edge goes to the Bears in this category, especially if Monday was a sign of things to come for Hester and the Bears.
Jay Cutler vs. Eli Manning
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Jay Cutler seems to really buy into the Mike Martz offense, though he is getting killed by the weak offensive line and lack of a running game.
But he has limited the number of interceptions so far and is learning to throw the ball away in situations rather than force it into tight coverage.
But the red zone offense continues to struggle.
After three games, Cutler has a 109.7 QB rating with six TDs and two INTs. He averages 9.5 yards per attempt for a total of 870 yards thus far.
Meanwhile, Eli Manning's QB rating is only 81.7 and is averaging 7.9 yards, though his completion percentage and total yardage is similar to Cutler.
The big difference, between the two, is Manning's six INTs versus five TD passes this season.
This past weekend, Manning moved his team up and down the field, throwing for almost 400 yards but penalties and turnovers robbed them of several scoring chances and Manning finished with zero TDs.
Five of Manning's six INTs have gone off of Giants receivers so they have to shoulder some of the blame. Hakeem Nicks, in particular, needs to do a better job of catching the football.
Cutler lacks a true number one receiver, but Martz utilizes everyone and Cutler has spread the ball around very effectively.
Based on this season, you have to give the edge to Cutler. Based on last year, Manning has the edge. Assuming that Cutler doesn't slip back into his interception-happy ways of 2009, you'd have to give the edge overall to Cutler.
Prediction: Bears 28, Giants 27
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Yes, despite the edge going to the Bears in every category, I do think this will be a close game. Keep in mind that the Bears don't really stop other teams, they let them pile up yardage and then they come up with the play that results in a turnover.
All this means is that the Bears find a way to win and so they will win once again. But it won't be easy. It never is for this team.
That's why it's called winning ugly, but who cares as long as they walk away victorious.
This is a Giants team that may look in the mirror and be desperate enough to play their best game in weeks. They are a team that will play like their season is on the line because it is. Meanwhile, the Bears have to guard against a possible letdown.
So, I predict a close game that once again comes down to the wire and another game winning field goal by Robbie Gould. Bears win 28-27.
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