UFC 119 Fight Card: What Antonio Rogerio Nogueira Must Do To Beat Ryan Bader

This Saturday night, Pride veteran Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (19-3) will take on "Ultimate Fighter" season 7 light heavyweight winner Ryan "Darth" Bader (11-0).

Many people seem to believe that this will be Bader's fight, since Rogerio didn't put on his sharpest performance against Jason Brilz.  However, I scored the fight 29-28 in favor of Rogerio once I reexamined the fight without the commentary.  

Rogerio I believe holds a significant advantage over Bader in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and is a far better striker.

It's no secret that Antonio Rogerio Noguiera is a tremendously skilled amateur boxer as he has won the bronze medal at the 2007 Pan American games.

Bader's best shot is if he can take Rogerio down and stay tight to him, but Rogerio is a highly proficient black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and it won't be easy for Bader to stay out of Nogueira's submissions and sweeps.

While Bader does have improved striking he's far from being technical and in his fight with Jardine, he was clearly outworked in round 2.

Also, Bader has shown signs of cardio problems in the past, if you look at the Jardine fight again, you will see Bader couldn't get his takedowns as the fight wore on, and in his fight with Eric Schaefer he appeared pretty tired after dominating Shaefer in the first round.

Even in Rogerio's worst win in his fight against Brilz, he clearly dominated round 3 and showed great conditioning.

I see Antonio Rogerio Nogueira utilizing his far superior boxing and submission skills to stifle Ryan Bader and finish Bader in the third round by TKO.  I believe Bader may have a strong first round, but Rogerio will capitalize on Bader being tired and finish him.