Fantasy Football Week 3: Early Point Magnets and Great Stock-Down Buys
With rosters set to lock for Fantasy Football's Week 3 slate in less than 72 hours, it's time to look at some trends in the fantasy football world.
First, we have the fast starters. These are the players who come blazing out of the gate, putting up impressive numbers right off the bat. Maybe they continue for the whole season, maybe they don't. But the one trait they share are the points they put up in the first part of the season.
Next, we have our "Adam LaRoche All-Stars"; the guys who come on as the season progresses. LaRoche is an infamous slow starter in baseball circles, although Mark Teixeira could also be used here.
Third on the block are the players whose early matchups this year favor a fast start, followed by the guys whose schedule will see them get off to a rougher start than they would like.
Confused? Don't be. We're going to have each group of players clearly defined. Let's start with our early season fireballs.
Fireball 10: Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
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Why He's a Fireball: Romo is 9-2 as a starter in September with the Cowboys. Since becoming the starter, he has thrown for fewer than 1,000 yards in September just once, last year.
Can He Keep the Heat? Yes. Romo might see a drop-off in stats in October, but historically, he's been pretty good throughout the season.
Fireball 9: Dallas Clark, TE, Indianapolis Colts
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Why He's a Fireball: Clark has historically had his best stats come in the months of September and October. With the exception of 2008, when he was hurt, Clark has not failed to tally 200 yards receiving in September since 2006.
Can He Keep the Heat? Somewhat. Clark's stats seem to take a bit of a hit as the season progresses, although they didn't drop much in 2009. Perhaps he's turned the corner.
Fireball 8: Jay Cutler, QB, Chicago Bears
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Why He's a Fireball: Cutler has only failed to throw for 1,000 or more yards in September once in his career. The former Bronco loves to get out to a fast start. In his third season, when most quarterbacks make the leap, Cutler also minimized his interception count in September, throwing just three.
Can He Keep the Heat? In terms of yards, yes. But Cutler has to cut down on his interceptions to maintain his current pace.
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Fireball 7: Randy Moss, WR, New England Patriots
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Why He's a Fireball: In his big years, Moss has put up his best numbers in September and October. The years when his Septembers were lacking (2008 and 2006) can be attributed to outside factors influencing his production.
Can He Keep the Heat? To an extent. Moss has not historically matched his September numbers, but has come close more often than not.
Fireball 6: Matt Schaub, QB, Houston Texans
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Why He's a Fireball: Schaub has thrown for 6,305 yards in September and October in his NFL career.
Can He Keep the Heat? Historically, Schaub has struggled once Halloween passes, failing to surpass 3,000 passing yards in November or December.
Fireball 5: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears
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Why He's a Fireball: When Forte had his big season in 2008, most of his yards were accumulated through the first eight games. After midseason, he seemed to fade.
Can He Keep the Heat? Maybe. Forte's still young, so we don't know how consistent he is yet.
Fireball 4: Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
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Why He's a Fireball: Peterson has historically had most of his success in September, racking up more yards than in any other month.
Can He Keep the Heat? Yes. Peterson's stats don't drop off much as the season progresses, and he's one of the NFL's most consistent runners.
Fireball 3: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
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Why He's a Fireball: Rivers has thrown for 3,876 yards in September, his second-highest total for any month and one of the NFL's best early-season totals.
Can He Keep the Heat? Yes. Rivers's stats are consistent throughout the season.
Fireball 2: Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
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Why He's a Fireball: Manning plays his most efficient football in September, completing more than 60 percent of his passes. He has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio in September and October (66 to 36) than he does the rest of the season.
Can He Keep the Heat? Maybe. His yard totals improve as the season wears on, but Manning is less accurate and more turnover prone late in the season.
Fireball 1: Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos
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Why He's a Fireball: Orton loves to come out big in the first half of the season, with high yard totals and touchdowns coupled with low interception numbers to make him a good fantasy play.
Can He Keep the Heat? Yes. Orton's stats are never awful, although they do drop off somewhat after October.
Slow Burn 5: Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints
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Why He's a Slow Burner: Colston has had injury issues in previous seasons during September and October, but always seems to come on once the games get meaningful. His touchdown and yardage numbers always jump once October turns to November, and they jump even more from November to December.
Can he Buck the Trend? Perhaps. Colston is healthy and established in New Orleans for the first time in his brief career. If he's going to put up big numbers early, this is the year it'll happen.
Slow Burn 4: Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams
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Why He's a Slow Burn: While Jackson is a consistent yard producer all season long, his touchdown numbers spike once we hit October. He's scored just two September touchdowns in his career, but has no fewer than 10 in any other month. Add to that the fact that he has 600 more yards in December than any other month, and you've got a slow burner.
Can He Buck the Trend? So far, no. Jackson has 156 rushing yards but no touchdowns this month.
Slow Burn 3: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Why He's a Slow Burn: Jones-Drew doesn't really get going till after he gets to trick-or-treat. He has 1,593 yards in September and October, but 2,378 in November and December.
Can He Buck the Trend? Jones-Drew has 129 yards and no touchdowns through two September games this season.
Slow Burn 2: DeAngelo Williams, RB, Carolina Panthers
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Why He's a Slow Burn: Much like his team, Williams can't seem to get going until the second half of the year. He's put up 1,541 yards between September and October in his career, compared to 2,425 in November and December.
Can He Buck the Trend? Nope. Williams has 116 yards and no touchdowns through two September games this season.
Slow Burn 1: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
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Why He's a Slow Burn: While he's put up gaudy numbers in every month during his career, there is a trend present. Brees has thrown for over 1,000 fewer yards in September than in any other month.
Can He Buck the Trend? Maybe. Brees hasn't thrown much in two games this season, but that could change at any time.
Easy Schedule 5: Louis Murphy, WR, Oakland Raiders
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Why He's Worth the Trouble: Murphy's got speed and hands, and while Oakland hasn't looked all that good so far this season, Murphy's poised for a big year.
The Matchups: Houston, Arizona, San Diego, San Francisco. Not a ton of high quality corners coming down the pipes the next couple of weeks.
Tough Schedule 5: Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Why He'll be Available: Tampa's schedule coming up does them no favors. Pittsburgh's defense looks revitalized, followed by the Bengals and Saints.
Why You Should Grab Him: Despite the schedule, Williams promises to get plenty of chances.
Easy Schedule 4: Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis Rams
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Why He's Worth the Trouble: Bradford's learning on the job, but he's got some tasty matchups coming down the pipe.
The Schedule: Washington, Seattle, Detroit and San Diego. None of those defenses are too terrifying, and Bradford could be a decent value pickup.
Tough Schedule 4: Eddie Royal, WR, Denver Broncos
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Why He'll Be Available: Don't look for many big games from Royal in the next 4 weeks. Indy, Tennessee Baltimore, and the Jets loom.
Why You Should Grab Him: Royal gets some softer matchups after Week 7, and he's got the talent to put up good numbers.
Easy Schedule 3: Mark Clayton, WR, St. Louis Rams
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Tough Schedule 3: Kyle Orton, QB, Denver Broncos
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Why He'll Be Available: He's got the same schedule as Royal, and no one seems to trust him.
Why You Should Grab Him: For the same reasons as Royal: talent, and a schedule that gets a bit easier later on.
Easy Schedule 2: Nate Washington, WR, Tennessee Titans
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Why He's Worth the Trouble: He's a great deep threat, and that's pretty much all Jeff fisher should trust Vince Young to throw.
The Schedule: The Giants, Broncos, Cowboys and Jaguars in his next 4. He must be licking his chops.
Tough Schedule 2: Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns
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Why He'll Be Available: Hillis is a goal-line only back. He's got a tough schedule coming up, so he won't get you many yards.
Why You Should Grab Him: Hillis will have value every week, because of his goal-line role. He'll get you points if you need them.
Easy Schedule 1: Alex Smith, QB, San Francisco 49ers
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Why He's Worth the Trouble: Smith has a number of tasty looking matchups coming down the pipe, and he's got the talent to put up big numbers.
The Schedule: Kansas City, Atlanta, Philly, Oakland, Carolina, Denver.
Tough Schedule 1: Dustin Keller, TE, New York Jets
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Why He'll Be Available: Keller's already widely available, and he should be even moreso after the Jets' next few games. Miami, Buffalo and Minnesota are decent against opposing tight ends.
Why You Should Grab Him: Keller's a sure-handed receiver, and the Jets are in short supply of those. Even in tough weeks, he should be solid.
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