2010-11 NBA Predictions: Which Second-Year Player Will Make the Biggest Leap?
The second round of 82 games for NBA sophomores has often been a strong indicator of the amount of success that a player will have throughout his career.
For example, in the 2004-05 season, Dwyane Wade upped his 16.2/4.0/4.5 (points/rebounds/assists) averages as a rookie to 24.1/5.2/6.8 on 47.8 percent shooting from the field. And if it weren't for an injury in the Eastern Conference Finals, he could have helped lead the Heat to back-to-back titles (Miami won the Finals a year later in 2006).
LeBron James saw a similar increase in numbers during his sophomore year, going from 20.5/5.5/5.9 on 41.7/29.0/75.4 (field goal/three-point/free throw percentages) to 27.2/7.4/7.2 with 47.2/35.4/75.0 percentages.
If you go back even further, guys like Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, Charles Barkley, Oscar Robertson, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar all saw their numbers jump in at least two to three significant stat categories. And more importantly, their teams all started winning more.
Wade took his Heat team to the second round as a rookie and forced the Pistons to a Game 7 in the '05 ECF.
Bird led the Celtics to their 14th NBA title while dominating in the playoffs, averaging 21.9 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 6.1 assists in 17 games.
Robertson's Cincinnati Royals team increased their win total by 10 and made the playoffs while the '70-'71 Milwaukee Bucks won their only championship, paced by Abdul-Jabbar's playoff averages of 26.6 points and 17.0 rebounds on 51.5 percent shooting.
It wasn't just the jump in numbers that started to cement these players' place in history; it was each player maturing as a leader, leading his team to more consistent success, and sending a message to the rest of the league—a "I'm here to stay and there's nothing you can do about it" message.
As we prepare for training camps and the start of the 2010-11 season (just 34 days away!), a select few members of the 2009 draft class will have their opportunity to make an impact on the league on a similar way. Granted, maybe nobody in this class will finish with as prestigious of a career as Bird or Magic, but there are some perennial All-Stars still lurking.
So which of these guys are ready to burst through their shell and make their claim as one of the best (along with Kevin Durant, of course) under-22 players in the league? Let's count 'em down.
Not Quite Ready Yet...
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Here are a few players that will likely have strong years, but for various reasons just aren't quite ready to make the leap yet.
Rodrigue Beaubois
A dynamic, electrifying player (as he showed in the playoffs), but he's still playing behind Jason Kidd. He'll get more minutes but Dallas is loaded across the board.
Omri Casspi
One of last year's surprises, Casspi went on a tear in mid-December before struggling in March and April—similar to the entire Kings team. He won't have much competition getting playing time at either guard or small forward, which suggests he could get 30-35 minutes a night. But best-case scenario, he's the third-wheel behind Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins.
DeMar DeRozan
The Raptors are going with the youth movement, meaning they'll want to see as much of guys like DeRozan as possible. He averaged 21.0 points on 58.0 shooting (including 40.0 percent from the three-point line) in the Vegas Summer League and will get plenty of chances to make up for the scoring gap left by Chris Bosh. May be the toughest to omit from the top five.
Jonny Flynn
Started off last season strong, scoring double-figures in his first 11 games, but somewhat faded down the stretch. He was inconsistent at times and playing on such a youthful, up-and-down Minnesota team won't help him maintain a solid level of play.
James Harden
Sure to see an increase in minutes, but Thabo Sefolosha will still be around as the premier perimeter defender, and on a team with Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Jeff Green, it's uncertain how many touches he'll consistently get.
Jrue Holiday
Started the last 41 games for Philly and appears to be their choice at point guard, but playing alongside Evan Turner and Andre Iguodala (two guys that are used to having the ball a lot) will limit his opportunities.
Blake Griffin
Technically doesn't qualify since this will be his rookie year.
Ty Lawson
This comes with an asterisk. If, hypothetically, Denver were to convince a potential suitor for Carmelo Anthony to take Chauncey Billups as well, then Lawson's stats would explode. But as long as he's behind Billups in the depth chart, he won't get enough playing time to make the jump.
Terrence Williams
Unlike most rookies, he ended the season strong. He's a versatile player, meaning the Nets might try him at a few different positions, but the fact that they added Anthony Morrow, Damion James, and Travis Outlaw means he could lose a few minutes.
5. Marcus Thornton
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2010 Stats: 25.6 minutes, 14.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, .8 steals, 45.1 FG%, 37.4 3PT%, 81.4 FT%
Even though Thornton came off the bench in 56 of 73 games, he still put up nearly 15 points per game and was one of the league's biggest surprises. Widely considered the best second-round value of 2009, he averaged 19.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.8 three-pointers as a starter in New Orleans' final 11 games.
His scoring explosion came after the All-Star break; he hit double-digit point totals in 28 of 29 games to finish the season. He started to scratch the surface while Chris Paul missed time with an injury, but his success down the stretch playing with the star point guard showed that he wasn't just getting points in garbage-time.
New Orleans was so satisfied with Thornton's play in the second half of the season that they shipped off last year's start at SG (Mo Peterson) to Oklahoma City in exchange for a few draft picks (well, that and they wanted to free up some cap space as well).
This year, he'll likely be inserted into the starting lineup. If he plays 35 minutes a game, he'd be on pace to average 19.8 points and 4.0 rebounds a game.
He's the ideal shooting guard to play with Paul—someone who can spot up and hit three-pointers consistently but also get his shot off playing one-on-one and take a little pressure off of Paul's ball-handling duties.
New Orleans is young and Thornton won't have many challengers at his position. It wouldn't be surprising to see him improve even more this season, even if his numbers are just ever-so-slightly inflated because of Paul.
4. Darren Collison
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2010 Stats: 27.8 minutes, 12.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 47.7 FG%, 40.0 3PT%, 85.1 FT%
The Hornets might have had the most successful draft in 2009, nabbing Thornton in the second round with the 43rd pick and taking Collison at No. 21.
Collison was at his best in the 25 games that Chris Paul missed from late-January to mid-March, averaging 19.3 points, 9.1 assists, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.1 steals in that time. Thanks to an offseason trade, he's taking his talents to Indiana where he'll assume the starting point guard role from Earl Watson.
Quietly, the Pacers have a team with offensive firepower at most positions. He'll definitely have an impact on Danny Granger, who has a similar scoring set as Marcus Thornton, only much more potent. Granger has been forced to carry the scoring load the last couple of years and having a reliable point guard that can run a halfcourt offense will take some pressure off him.
They added Lance Stephenson, who despite his offseason legal problems had a terrific Summer League debut, averaging 14.8 points on a whopping 73.3 percent from the field.
Paul George, Brandon Rush, and Mike Dunleavy are all capable outside shooters, and while Roy Hibbert and Tyler Hansbrough certainly aren't great one-on-one scorers, they can still convert scoring chances created by Collison's dribble penetration and the team's ability to stretch the floor with three-point threats.
After Miami, Orlando, Boston, Chicago, Milwaukee, and Atlanta, the final two playoff spots in the East are up for grabs. If Collison averages something around 15-16 points, eight or nine assists, and the Pacers win 40 games and sneak into the playoffs, he'll have to be considered one of the breakout players of the '09 class.
3. Stephen Curry
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2010 Stats: 36.2 minutes, 17.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.9 steals, 46.2 FG%, 43.3 3PT%, 88.5 FT%
No offense to the prior candidates on this list, but it's the next three that have the best chance of making multiple All-Star appearances in the next decade.
Curry might be a bit puzzling at No. 3 on the list. After all, he by far had the best overall stats of any rookie last season, made Team USA's roster for the FIBA World Championships, and has a more proven background than the top two on the list (took Davidson to the Elite Eight in '08 NCAA Tournament).
But the numbers are skewed a bit playing Nellie-ball. Golden State was the only team to attempt more than 7,000 shots as a team last season and Curry certainly reaped the benefits of the system when it comes to points and assists. In the past years, guys like Anthony Tolliver, Reggie Williams, Cartier Martin, and Kelenna Azubuike have all put up career numbers playing in Golden State—it's not exactly difficult to put up points.
Not to discredit anything that Curry accomplished. His three-point shot is the smoothest and most natural of any player under-25 not named Kevin Durant. He's a smart player—he knows when to attack, when to get others involved, and when to push the tempo (which is after every shot in Golden State's offense).
There's one major thing that will keep Steph from making the biggest leap of any player this year, however. And that's the fact that Golden State isn't much improved from last year's team.
Yea, they added David Lee and Ekpe Udoh, but they're already saddled with Andris Biedrins' contract and also traded away Corey Maggette for practically nothing.
As a franchise, they don't seem to have a set direction. Don Nelson is on board for one more year, but it's obvious that this style isn't conducive to long-term success. They have a new group of owners but this transition period could take time.
None of this is Curry's fault. But countless amount of superstars have seen their primes dwindle away on mediocre teams. Not to suggest that Golden State won't be competitive at all in the next 10 years, but their future looks far more bleak than the teams of the two remaining players on the list. That puts even more pressure on Curry to not only have a breakout season, but to carry his team to a respectable record in the process.
Quite the tall order.
We tend to value winners more and hold them in a higher light. Because of that, it's more likely that while Curry could have the best numbers, he's not as revered as the next two players.
2. Brandon Jennings
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2010 Stats: 32.6 minutes, 15.5 points, 3.4 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 37.1 FG%, 37.4 3PT%, 81.7 FT%
I get the feeling that Jennings over Curry might raise an eyebrow or two. Let me try to explain...
First off, winning speaks volumes. I realize it's not fair to Curry that Milwaukee has more talent, experience, and a plan for the future surrounding Jennings, but it's reality.
Point guard is still one of the toughest positions for a young player to master, but Jennings orchestrated incredible leadership and toughness on the floor last season, especially in the postseason. Even with no Andrew Bogut, he led the Bucks to a seventh game against the heavily-favored Hawks and nearly came away victorious.
He averaged 18.7 points, 3.6 assists, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.1 steals in those seven playoff games. But the most impressive thing? He thrived down the stretch. He got better as the pressure mounted. There are few players that have that type of feel for the moment, and Jennings certainly displayed it last year.
He was inconsistent at times, but when he played well Milwaukee was awful tough to beat. This year, they'll be even tougher.
They'll have a healthy Andrew Bogut ready for the start of the regular season to go along with a full summer to fully incorporate John Salmons into the system (not that he didn't mesh last season, but things always go a little smoother when you have a full offseason to work with teammates).
They added Corey Maggette, a bruising small forward who loves to play physical on the blocks for next to nothing while drafting Larry Sanders and signing Drew Gooden in the offseason.
And don't forget Luke Ridnour averaged nearly 22 minutes a game last season. When things went south for Jennings, Ridnour stepped in. But he's in Minnesota now, and Milwaukee's only real backup point guard is currently Earl Boykins.
This is Jennings' team. He has a rare opportunity to step up, become a leader, and lead his team to a 45-50 win season. Not only that, he can add his name to the ever-growing list of young, elite point guards (Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, Chris Paul, Deron Williams...).
Fear the deer. And fear the kid that will hold the reins.
1. Tyreke Evans
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2010 Stats: 37.2 minutes, 20.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.5 steals, 45.8 FG%, 25.5 3PT%, 74.8 FT%
Evans' rookie year held historical significance—he was one of four players to average 20 points, five rebounds, and five assists in their first year.
The other three? Oscar Robertson, Michael Jordan, and LeBron James. So yeah, that's pretty good company.
He was held to single-digit scoring in only five of 72 games and cracked 20 or more points 41 times. At 6'6", he's a difficult matchup because of his size, quickness, and power.
His versatility allows him to play on or off the ball at either point guard or off-guard. The Kings can go with a quick, tall, athletic backcourt with him, Omri Casspi, and Donte Greene, or they can play Evans at shooting guard or small forward with Beno Udrih handling the point guard duties.
And most important, the Kings are set up well for the future. They're quietly following the Oklahoma City mold for small-market teams and could forge themselves into playoff contenders in the next few years, as a majority of the teams in the West are aging.
They have an abundance of high-quality young players (Casspi, Greene, Hassan Whiteside, Jason Thompson, Carl Landry) that will get an opportunity to play together and form some real chemistry in the next two to three years.
Aside from Udrih (two years, $13.8 million, $7.8 million player-option for 2012-13) and Francisco Garcia (three years, $16.4 million, $6.4 million team-option for 2013-14), they don't have any crippling contracts. They also have Evans, DeMarcus Cousins, Thompson, Casspi, and Greene locked up for the next two to three years, but are nearly $20 million under the cap this year and will have plenty of cap space in the foreseeable future.
Lastly, they could have gotten the best value in the pick with DeMarcus Cousins at No. 5. It's a huge risk, but it's not inconceivable for him to develop into a 20-point, 10-rebound guy. And as Bill Simmons says, you can have one crazy player per team...just not two, for fear they might start hanging out. Well right now, Cousins is the only crazy guy on board, which means Sacto might be safe.
And if they hit the home run that it appears they did in the 2009 Draft, they have a legit chance of becoming serious players in the Western Conference for the 2010s. It's just up to Evans to take the next step.
