Fantasy Baseball: Looking Back at Closers

As fantasy owners, we continually look to draft the best at each category. Several years ago many learned the pain of taking chances on starters early in drafts as Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, and Erik Bedard (to name a few) fell by the wayside due to injuries. Others demonstrated complete ineffectiveness, and hurt owners through lack of performance and forfeiture of a better selection. Certainly that can happen with offense as well, but pitchers on the whole are much riskier.

This season we continue to see how closers are too much of a high-risk phenomenon to draft early. It is a subject I have written about before, and even posted thoughts on why to avoid the elite closers prior to 2010 drafts that you can read here. So far this season, 35 players have recorded at least 10 saves, and 28 of those have recorded better than 20. Only five to this point have cracked 40, but there is an outside shot of having two more join that club.

Of those five closers (Brian Wilson, Rafael Soriano, Heath Bell, Joakim Soria, Matt Capps), only one (Soria) was drafted inside the top 100 selections based on ESPN numbers. Capps was drafted after pick 220 because of concerns about his durability coming out of his 2009 season with the Pirates, and because of the presence of youngster Drew Storen, who could push him out of a job.

It continues to show that we simply cannot be certain. It was all but certain that Rafael Soriano would have the job with the Rays, but injury concerns and a crowded bullpen forced him out of the top 150 picks as well.

It does, though, prove that fantasy owners that were looking for two mid-tier closers could have done very well. In fact, an owner could have grabbed David Aardsma and Leo Nunez at picks 180 and 211 respectively. Doing that would have given them 60 saves and two pitchers that would have combined for a WHIP near 1.25 and ERA of 3.60 (estimates without doing math). Not great, but when you consider what you had to spend to get top closers, the return may make more sense.

The elite closers continued to demonstrate that waiting is a better idea. Mariano Rivera was taken at pick 56. Without a doubt, he is one of the more effective closers in baseball. That said, if the season ended today, he would have 11 pitchers finish with more saves than he has. On that list is Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg, Billy Wagner, Neftali Feliz, and Francisco Cordero.

You say you liked his sub-1.00 WHIP though? What if I told you three others had that same mark with more saves, and five matched his sub-2.00 ERA? Rivera has a solid combination of great assets, but when you pitch on a limited basis, owners will only reap the benefits of the saves category. An inning at a time is not enough to sway even head-to-head stats over the course of a week. In fact, we may only see three closers crack 70 innings pitched this year.

Drafting Jonathan Broxton proved to be a disaster for many, as the Dodgers showed that even the guys that had the best marks can be replaced. Certainly he is not the only closer to lose his job—Chad Qualls, Bobby Jenks, Trevor Hoffman, Frank Francisco, and Brian Fuentes all were subsequently moved out of the ninth inning spot.

Mike Gonzalez was seen by many to be a dark horse, but he fell victim both to injury and consistent failure in the final inning. Not to mention the loss of Francisco Rodriguez of the Mets to, ahem, legal problems. The difference with Broxton is that he was taken as the second closer overall, drafted on average before pick 62. Losing him and Rodriguez hurts much more than these others, all of whom were selected in the middle-100's to after 200. An owner can recover from that, but not from an early mistake.

Would Jonathan Papelbon, he who leads the league in blown saves, make you feel good with a 3.92 ERA even with 36 saves? Papelbon has been incredibly inconsistent with his pitching over the 2010 season, and could very well be throwing his final games in Boston, with the emergence of Daniel Bard.

Papelbon falls into a similar but slightly different category than Broxton. While he kept his job, it was not exactly smooth sailing. He and several others were beneficiaries in that regard. The Phillies went through three closers to get everything settled at the back end of the bullpen, while the Rockies and Astros had their own issues in finding stability in the 'pen. Not because of struggles, but just a time share situation.

Fantasy owners need to understand the depth at this position overall. With so many pitchers recording 10 saves or more, it is entirely possible to compete in this category without spending an early selection on an elite reliever. You may not want to stack your team with mid-tier guys at every position, but this is one that allows for some survival should you go that route. There are changes in nearly a third of all teams over a season and learning to read and react to that will help as well.

Next year, many will forget that this all went on, and we will see the same names going early in drafts again. Do not fall in to that trap. Look to grab your closers in the middle rounds next year.