Why Toronto Raptors' Andrea Bargnani's Glass Is Half Full

Despite showing flashes of brilliance, the number of Raptors fans questioning the Italian's ability to carry the newly Bosh-less franchise is rapidly growing. Some doubts are understandable. After all, Bargnani didn't exactly light the world on fire last season when Bosh could not play due to injury. Even though Bosh didn't miss many games, it would have been comforting for Raptors fans if Bargnani had shown the ability to dominate in those limited opportunities. But he didn't.

Bargnani's statistical weaknesses are also disconcerting. In Dirk's fourth season, he was putting up 23 and 10. In contrast, after four years, Bargnani is still not a 20 point-per-game scorer and averaged a measley six rebounds a game last season. Raptors fans hoping for the next Dirk Nowitski have nearly run out of patience.

To those fans, I say:

Breathe.

Calm down.

Relax.

In the NBA, context matters.

Dirk was drafted by Mad Scientist Don Nelson who gave him every opportunity to learn from his mistakes early on. In contrast, Bargnani was coached by Mad Dog Sam Mitchell who was hell bent on toughening him up, pulling him from games for the slightest defensive lapse, and inexplicably started Rasho Nesterovic over the young forward.

The following table highlights the differences in opportunity between Nowitski and Bargnani through their first four years and it is striking.

By his sophomore campaign, Dirk was already starting in 81 games, averaging 36 minutes and 14 shots per contest. In contrast, in year two, Bargnani started in only 53 games and averaged nearly 12 fewer minutes and four fewer shots per game than Nowitski. It wasn't until Bargnani's fourth season (last year) that he finally received comparable playing time to Nowitski's second season. 

The following table compares the per-game production between Bargnani's 4th season and Nowitski's second. I focus on these two seasons because these were the first seasons in which both players were given extensive opportunity to play; both averaged approximately 35 minutes-per-game, attempted 14 field goals per contest, and started roughly 80 games.    

Both were good scorers, horrible rebounders (for their size), lethal from downtown, but with Bargnani being the better shot blocker. More importantly, Andrea performed just as well as Dirk did when finally given Dirk-like opportunity.

Toronto fans are too quick to see Bargnani's glass as half empty. Critics underappreciate that Bargnani has always had to play out of position at the five in deferrence to Chris Bosh. In contrast, Dirk Nowitski only had Juwan Howard, Shawn Bradley, and Christian Laettner to contend with while playing his natural power forward position. 

Again, context matters. And in Toronto, for the first time in his career, the situational factors are shifting in Bargnani's favor rather than against him. Couple that with Bargnani's unusually high mental fortitude as well as his own stated desire for improvement and there's more reasons for optimism than less. So be patient Toronto—Rome wasn't built in a day and evidently neither are their basketball stars.