Why Toronto Raptors' Andrea Bargnani's Glass Is Half Full
Despite showing flashes of brilliance, the number of Raptors fans questioning the Italian's ability to carry the newlyย Bosh-less franchise isย rapidly growing. Some doubts are understandable. After all, Bargnani didn't exactly light the world on fire lastย season when Bosh couldย not playย due to injury. Even though Bosh didn't miss many games, it would have been comforting for Raptors fans if Bargnani had shownย the ability to dominate in those limited opportunities. But he didn't.
Bargnani's statistical weaknesses are also disconcerting. In Dirk's fourth season, he was putting up 23 and 10. In contrast,ย after four years,ย Bargnani is stillย not aย 20 point-per-game scorer and averagedย aย measley six rebounds a game last season.ย Raptors fans hoping for the next Dirk Nowitski haveย nearly run out of patience.
To those fans, I say:
Breathe.
Calm down.
Relax.
In the NBA, context matters.
Dirk was drafted by Mad Scientist Don Nelson who gaveย him every opportunity to learn from his mistakes early on. In contrast, Bargnaniย was coached byย Mad Dog Sam Mitchell whoย was hell bent on tougheningย him up,ย pullingย him from games for the slightest defensiveย lapse, and inexplicably started Rasho Nesterovic over the young forward.
The following table highlights the differences in opportunity between Nowitski and Bargnani through their first four years and it is striking.
By his sophomore campaign, Dirk was alreadyย starting in 81 games, averaging 36 minutes and 14 shots per contest.ย In contrast, in year two, Bargnani started in only 53 games andย averaged nearlyย 12 fewer minutes and four fewer shots per gameย than Nowitski.ย It wasn't until Bargnani's fourth season (last year) that heย finally receivedย comparableย playing timeย to Nowitski's second season.ย
The following table compares the per-game production between Bargnani's 4th season and Nowitski's second. I focus on these two seasons becauseย these were the first seasons in which both players were given extensive opportunity to play; both averaged approximately 35 minutes-per-game, attempted 14 field goals per contest, and started roughly 80 games.ย ย ย ย
Both were good scorers, horrible rebounders (for their size), lethal from downtown, but with Bargnani being the better shot blocker.ย More importantly,ย Andreaย performed just as wellย as Dirk did when finally given Dirk-like opportunity.
Toronto fans are too quick to see Bargnani's glass as half empty.ย Criticsย underappreciate that Bargnani has always had to play out ofย position at the five in deferrence toย Chris Bosh. In contrast, Dirk Nowitskiย only had Juwan Howard, Shawn Bradley, and Christian Laettner to contend with while playing his natural power forward position.ย
Again, context matters. And in Toronto, for the first time in his career, the situational factors areย shifting in Bargnani's favorย rather than against him.ย Couple that with Bargnani's unusuallyย highย mental fortitudeย as well asย his ownย stated desire for improvementย and there's more reasons for optimism than less. So be patient TorontoโRome wasn't built in a dayย and evidently neither are their basketball stars.
