Vince Carter: Where Does He Go From Here?

Many Magic fans were greatly enthused when the they traded Courtney Lee, Tony Battie, and Rafer Alston for Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson.  In Carter, the Magic hoped they had upgraded from Hedo Turkoglu, who went on to sign a monstrous contract with the Toronto Raptors, paying him in excess of $10 million per season, over five years.

But was the move for Carter really an upgrade from Turkoglu?  Based on Vince's statistics in his previous years in Toronto, it seemed a no-brainer.  In his last season in New Jersey, he averaged approximately 20-5-5, compared to Hedo's 17-5-5 during the same season (08-09).  But everyone knew Carter has the ability to explode for monster games (as he did against the Hornets last year, blistering them for 48 points) and his ability to close out games.  The Magic seemed a lock to at least improve a few games on their 59 win total in 08-09.

But what actually happened?  The Magic stayed relatively the same, once again winning 59 games, but failing to make the NBA Finals as they did the year before.  Can the blame fall on Vince Carter's shoulders?  Possibly.  In the playoffs, Vince's field goal percentage dipped to just over 40%, compared to the near 43% during the regular season.  His scoring average was also about a point lower.  Even worse, when the Magic needed him most, against Boston, he delivered three-point and eight-point games in games 4 & 5, which ironically were both Magic wins. 

So what does this tell us? 

If the Magic are able to win two games against the Celts when Vince is playing horrendous basketball, do the Magic really need Vince at all?  Was the Redick signing a sign that Vince is on his way out?  It was Redick who stepped up in games 4 & 5, scoring 14 & 12 points, respectively, while also playing solid defense.  It seems to be the case that when Redick plays well off the bench, the Magic win games. 

What I am getting at here is somewhat obvious.  Redick should be the starter, and for the meantime (until the trade deadline when the trades go down, namely) Vince Carter should come off the bench as an instant offense player for the second unit.  Vince turns 34 this season in January, an age when most guards begin to decline even more rapidly than their early 30s.  So it is obvious that he is not the future shooting guard of the Magic. 

With Vince slated to make $17 million this year and an expiring contract, he could help the Magic lure a solid player away for the stretch run and the playoffs. 

One trade that has particular appeal with respect to what is realistic is the idea of trading Carter for Sixers forward Andre Iguodala.  Iguodala entered the NBA the same year as Dwight Howard and both are entering their respective primes.  Iguodala would give the Magic another tough defender and would more than make up for the offensive hole left by Vince.  Moreover, Philly acquired Evan Turner in this year's draft, making Iguodala expendable, provided Turner develops nicely.

It's clear that the emergence of Redick has made Carter expendable.  At this point, the only question remaining is when he will be dealt and for whom.  A $17 million expiring contract is valuable, particularly to teams that are out of the playoff hunt come February.  It's all up to GM Otis Smith, as usual, as to what kind of theatrics he will be able to pull off in a trade.