NFL Picks Week 2: Which Teams Are Locks to Go Against the Spread?
An exciting Week 2 awaits for us beginning on Sunday and there are sure to be surprises in every game.
Can the Jets bounce back? Are the Texans for real? How will Michael Vick's Eagles do?
Here are predictions for each game and a few challenges to what the boys in Vegas think will happen on the field.
No. 16: Philadelphia at Lions (+6.5)
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The Eagles are a lock to beat the Lions. There is virtually no home-field advantage for Detroit, so you can forget that being a factor.
Andy Reid has been getting Michael Vick ready since Sunday night, no matter what the prognosis for Kevin Kolb would be. Playing a full half at quarterback for the first time in years knocked a whole lot of rust off Vick’s legs and arm. And with a game plan more tailored to Vick’s versatility the Lions will fall by more than a touchdown: probably several more.
Shaun Hill at quarterback will also contribute to the blowout. Matthew Stafford was becoming the leader and face of that franchise. His injury is devastating to Detroit and they will not rally behind his backup.
Take the Eagles to cover.
No. 15: New Orleans (-5.5) at San Francisco
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The 49ers get the standard three points just for being at home, so that tells you how much better the Saints are than San Fran. New Orleans will certainly run in to trouble some time this season; there’s a reason most Super Bowl champs struggle each year to return to the postseason.
And their first loss will most likely come on the road, with the home crowd cheering on an upset of the World Champions. But it won’t come this early in the season.
If Matt Hasselbeck was that good last week against San Francisco’s pass defense, imagine how Drew Brees will look. There are problems across the board for the 49ers and just super star, fantasy football talent on offense in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree, doesn’t necessarily translate into points.
The Saints will cover with plenty of room to spare.
No. 14: Arizona (+6.5) at Atlanta
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The Cardinals are nowhere near the team that nearly upset Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl a few years back. And not just because they’ve lost their quarterback and Pro Bowl wideout.
Derek Anderson is going to connect with Larry Fitzgerald for plenty of touchdowns this year so that is not the problem for Ken Wisenhunt. His defense is.
With Joey Porter, Clark Haggans, Bryan Robinson, and others, the Arizona defense is old. They might slow down Michael Turner a bit but Matt Ryan will be well protected in the Georgia Dome. Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White should combine for nearly 200 yards and the Falcons.
In a reasonably high scoring affair, Atlanta beats both Arizona and the spread.
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No. 13: Chicago (+7.5) at Dallas
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The pressure is on the Cowboys offense after last week’s abysmal output against Washington. Because it is still early in the season they will be able to respond.
Dallas’ was excellent on the road against the Redskins and will continue to ride high against Chicago. Matt Forte and Jay Cutler posted very impressive numbers last week, but they still only defeated the lowly Lions, at home, because of an officiating blunder.
More than a week is necessary for Mike Martz to reclaim his title of “great offensive mind.” Cutler will see a far superior front seven against this week against Dallas.
It certainly won’t be the dominance Jerry Jones hopes for in the home opener, but Dallas wins and covers.
No. 12: Houston (-3) at Washington
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Both teams’ bandwagon is a lot heavier after last week’s impressive victories over division rivals.
Only because Dallas was in town, Washington played better than they really are. More so than their opponent, that pair of late-half gaffes, did the Cowboys in.
Under Mike Shanahan, the Redskins are better than they were last year, and their backfield is loaded with former All-Pro talent. That doesn’t make a winner overnight.
The younger Texans are now the darlings of the AFC, especially because of Arian Foster. But there are potential Pro Bowlers across this roster, on both sides of the line. Linebacker DeMeco Ryans is one of the league’s most underrated player. Houston’s first trip to the playoffs would change that.
The Redskins will keep it close through a half, but Houston overwhelms them late. Take the Texans to cover.
No. 11: Carolina (+3.5) at Tampa Bay
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Forget the records in this one. Carolina lost last week but to a very good Giants team, playing in their stadium’s first game: lots of excitement to feed off of. Matt Moore struggled with three interceptions but he still has one of the league’s best backfields. And this week he plays a much softer defense than New York’s.
A comeback win over Cleveland proves that the Bucs have the talent and grit to rebound in a hurry from a disastrous season last year. Top to bottom, Carolina is a much better team than the Browns and it will show this Sunday.
This once great battle of NFC juggernauts goes to the Panthers. They have little trouble covering.
No. 10: Baltimore (-2) at Cincinnati
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Once again, the strength of the Bengals in 2010 will be their offense. And although, in terms of stats, they played pretty well last week against New England, the numbers are deceiving.
They fell behind 24-0 until just before halftime. Yes, they narrowed the game to 14 at one point but they were never really in the game. Teams will be happy to surrender 12 catches for 159 yards to Chad Ochocinco if it means they are protecting a three touchdown lead.
The Ravens kept the Jets out of the end zone last Monday night. If the Bengals are able turn field goals into touchdowns they will have difficulty keeping pace, however. Furthermore, Baltimore cannot expect Carson Palmer to post the type of paltry numbers Mark Sanchez (10 of 21 for 74 yards) did last week.
Baltimore will move to 2-0 and cover the spread.
No. 9: New England (-3) at New York Jets
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The final score last week against Cincinnati was inconsequential. New England blew the Bengals out. Even if they cannot expect both kickoffs and interceptions returned for touchdowns each week, the Patriots could be favored every week.
The latest Randy Moss drama won’t affect the offenses play one bit. Why? Because Moss’ mere presence on the field—especially in the red zone—turns Wes Welker into an All-Pro. More often than not, very early in the game New England’s defense will be charged with protecting a double-digit lead.
Ines Sainz and Rex Ryan aren’t the Jets problem right now. At least not ON the field. And while the poor games put forth by Mark Sanchez and the New York running game are issues, the loss of Kris Jenkins is the most damaging. Darrelle Revis and Bart Scott will step up their play to fill the void but it is time for guys like Vernon Gholston to pull their weight.
New England reclaims their spot at the AFC East’s unquestioned favorite.
No. 8: St. Louis (+3.5) at Oakland
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Rookie Sam Bradford was impressive in his debut last week and will continue to improve. But it was the St. Louis defense that was the story in their narrow loss to Arizona last week.
The Rams held Arizona to just 10 points through the games first three-and-a-half quarters. Even more shocking, they limited Larry Fitzgerald to just two catches during that time. Arizona’s offense is not fantastic but against any team, St. Louis effort was something to build on.
Oakland may have been a popular preseason choice to be one of the league’s most improved teams. But they were pretty awful last week against Tennessee. Steven Jackson should find plenty of open holes in Week Two.
In a minor “upset” of the former Los Angeles Bowl, the Rams topple the Raiders.
No. 7: Seattle (+3.5) at Denver
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Pete Carrol’s team played lights out in their victory over San Francisco. In order to become a legitimate threat to win the NFC West, his Seahawks must win on the road.
The Seahawks defense was outstanding last week and quietly Lofa Tatupu is become a candidate for best middle linebacker in the NFL. Along with Aaron Curry and David Hawthorne, the Seahawks linebacking corps is versatile enough to both defend the run and cover a lot of ground in the passing game.
Denver struggled last week and the recent addition of Laurence Maroney suggests that Knowshon Moreno will not be back at full strength anytime soon. The longer Moreno is out, the longer the Broncos will have to rely on Kyle Orton. Which means the longer the “play Tim Tebow” chatter will persist.
The Mile-High, home-field advantage is not enough for the Broncos to defeat a confident Seahawks team. Seattle improves to 2-0.
No. 6: Kansas City (-1.5) at Cleveland
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The Chiefs impressed everyone with their win Monday night over San Diego. And although this looks to be a fabled “let down” game for Coach Haley’s crew, it won’t be. Kansas City matches up well with the Browns, even better than the Bucs did last week.
Matt Cassel certainly wasn’t stellar last week against the Chargers but he did protect the football. No small feat in that weather. He will do the same against Cleveland. Don’t expect the same from his counterpart, Jake Delhomme. Once again turnovers cost his team a win last week and the Chiefs will be ball-hawking all day. Even one turnover should bring out the legendary Cleveland boo-birds and could make for an ugly day by Lake Erie.
KC will beat the spread and win the game handily.
No. 5: Buffalo (+13.5) at Green Bay
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Ryan Grant’s season ending injury obviously hurts Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense. But Green Bay’s defense has got to worry about the loss just as much.
Although Rodgers will have another outstanding season without Grant, the Packers will not control the clock as much as Mike McCarthy hopes. Quick scoring touchdown drives and three-and-outs will tire the Packers out by the fourth quarter if Brandon Jackson can’t carry the ball 20 times.
Buffalo might be the NFL’s scrappiest team this year. Last week, they hung with a much better Dolphins team all afternoon. Expect them to do so a handful of times this season. Trent Edwards’ play will usually be the difference between “near upsets” and victory.
The Packers escape their home opener with a win, but don’t cover.
No. 4: Miami (+5.5) at Minnesota
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Another week with the offense will help Brett Favre get in sync with his young receiving corps. And while they will continue to miss Sidney Rice, they will be able to put up points against Miami.
Still, the Dolphins have the potential to be one of the league’s powerhouse offenses. Two solid, if not spectacular, backs and three fine receiving options in Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, and Anthony Fassano, aide a great deal in the development of Chad Henne.
Just because the Vikings looked excellent on defense against New Orleans, doesn’t mean they will do so again this week. Jake Long can start to make a real name for himself across the NFL should he neutralize Jared Allen.
Minny will win the game but not cover.
No. 3: Pittsburgh (+5.5) at Tennessee
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The Steelers ran the ball fairly well against a decent Falcons front four and should not have needed overtime to win their opener. Kicker Jeff Reed’s late miss could have been much more costly than it was.
Although Dennis Dixon played borderline terrible in Week One, he will be much better this time around. And because Dixon should convert a few more of the third down throws that he missed last week, Pittsburgh can keep the chains moving. That will keep Chris Johnson safely on the sidelines.
Johnson will gain his 100 yards and probably score a touchdown. A Titans win will depend on the play of Vince Young. Tennessee features the NFL’s worst receiving corps and Young will have to make plays with his feet. When he breaks the pocket, his receivers will get open. He has to connect with them down the field for big plays.
Pittsburgh goes on the road and wins, avenging the loss two seasons ago when Keith Bullock stomped the Terrible Towel.
No. 2: Jacksonville (+7) at San Diego
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Jacksonville looked good last week in defeating Denver. David Garrard looked like the quarterback from 2007 who won a road playoff game against Pittsburgh. Forget the touchdowns and yardage numbers: 16 of 21 throwing the ball is what matters. His ability to spread the ball around lets Maurice Jones-Drew run all over the Charger defense.
With Philip Rivers under center, the Bolts can score a bunch of points. But he needs his rookie running back to produce. Jack Del Rio’s defenses are always tough against the rush and will turn in another good showing.
The Jags will beat the spread and the Chargers.
No. 1: New York Giants (+5) at Indianapolis
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The second installment of the Manning Bowl will feature more passing offense than even the first did. Neither team seems able to run the ball efficiently this season.
Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith played very well in the home win over Carolina but Eli’s older brother has more weapons on offense. With Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, and Dallas Clark, Peyton should toss for another 300-plus yards.
The Giants strong suit remains their pass rush and if Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora can get to the quarterback, they will force mistakes out of the four-time league MVP.
The Colts win the game, but don’t cover.
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