Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State Odds and Pick: September 30, 2010

College football betting should get off to an electrifying start Thursday evening as the 3-0 Oklahoma State Cowboys host the 3-0 Texas A&M Aggies in undefeated Big 12 South action.

Vegas is expecting a close but high scoring affair as the Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma St. point spread is the Cowboys -3 points, while the ‘total’ is a staggering 67 points.

With the 50 or so games currently on this weekend’s college football betting board, the ‘total’ for this match-up is the highest of any of the games. Why is that?

For one, Oklahoma St. has the second highest scoring team in D-1, averaging 57 points per game (PPG). There offense is fueled by quarterback Brandon Weeden who averages 325 passing yards per game to go with 11 touchdowns and an eye-popping 186.33 QB rating. In three games, running back Kendall Hunter has already tallied 473 rushing yards and six scores.

The Aggies’ scoring production isn’t too shabby either, ranking 12^th with 41 PPG. Quarterback Jerrod Johnson’s favorite target Jeff Fuller averages 15.6 yards per reception and already has three touchdowns.

When these two have met in the recent past, the ‘over’ was usually a good bet. The last six times these teams played each other they covered the ‘over’ five times.

For bettors that put stock into betting trends here are a few more that suggest the ‘over’ is the way to go:

• In the Aggies last nine road games, the ‘over’ cashed eight times.
• The last 14 times the Aggies were dogs, the ‘over’ covered 11 times
• The ‘over’ is 11-5 the last 16 time the Cowboys played at home.

So according to all of these one-sided betting trends it appears as if the ‘over’ is a no brainer bet. Not so fast…

Despite the scoring output of both teams so far, neither the Aggies nor the Cowboys have really played anyone too tough as of yet. In fact, the combined record of all of their opponents is just 9-14.

As mentioned earlier, even though these teams covered the ‘over’ in five of their last six meetings, they exceeded Thursday’s total (67 points) in just two of those games. Additionally, it is interesting to note that last year and in 2006 the combined points fell exactly on 67. Hmmm, you think Vegas didn’t take that into account when setting the over-under?

The Aggies defense should be able to slow down the high scoring Cowboys to a certain extent. So far this season Texas A&M is surrendering just 14.4 PPG while giving up just 69 rushing yards per game and 186.7 passing yards per game. Although the competition might have been inferior, those are numbers that can’t be ignored.

Oddsauthority.com Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma St. Pick: Under 67 points

No doubt there will be plenty of scoring in Oklahoma Thursday night but this ‘total’ seems to be inflated just a bit due to these two teams pummeling inferior opponents during September. Expect the combined points to settle in the low 60’s.