Detroit Lions Prediction: Match Up Analysis Vs. Chicago Bears

The Detroit Lions take on the Chicago Bears this Sunday at Soldier Field in what many consider to be a game that either team can win. 

Quarterback

Most people feel Matthew Stafford had a decent rookie season; those same people are talking about how bad Jay Cutler was last year.  These opinions are valid when one considers where each of these two is in his career, with Stafford a rookie and Cutler a former Pro-Bowler.  When their seasons are compared head-to-head however, it becomes clear that Cutler had the better year.

Cutler played 16 games last year and led the league in interceptions with 26.  Stafford played in only 10 games and averaged two interceptions per game.   If we were to take Stafford’s interception per pass attempt (.053) and apply that number to how many attempts Cutler had, Stafford would have ended up with 30 interceptions.

Stafford will be a superstar; I just don’t know if he is ready to display that on the road in his 11^th career start.

Edge: Chicago

Wide Receivers

The Lions boast one of the better sets of starting receivers with Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson.  The Chicago Bears counter with Johnny Knox and Devin Hester.  This is a mismatch on paper if I ever saw one.

Johnson might be the best player on both teams.  With a more complete offense this year, he gets a chance to show the all-pro skills that he possesses.

Edge: Detroit

Running Backs

Matt Forte struggled last year but still managed to have two 100 yard rushing games against the Lions.  He will not be able to duplicate that effort this year.  Backup Chester Taylor will get a chance to display what he can do on third down.

Jahvid Best showed in the preseason why Detroit gave up a pick to move up and draft him.  He will get consideration for Rookie of the Year.  Detroit’s offense stalled when Best was out of the lineup in the preseason.

Jahvid Best could be the most gifted running back in this game, but Chicago’s two-back attack will give them the upper hand.

Edge: Chicago

Tight Ends:

Detroit’s boasts an impressive set of tight ends in Brandon Pettigrew, Will Heller, and Tony Scheffler.  Chicago counters with Greg Olsen and Kellen Davis. 

While both teams have good tight ends, Mike Martz in notorious for under utilizing the tight end position.

Edge: Detroit

Offensive Line

For years, Lions’ fans have pointed their finger at the offensive line to explain the team’s struggles, but the Lions this year feature a good line.  They return four starters: Jeff Backus, Dominic Raiola, Steven Peterman, and Gosder Cherilus. The only new face to the line is Rob Sims, a major upgrade at LG.

Outside of center Olin Kreutz, the Bears will start four linemen who have a combined 32 starts at the position they will man on Sunday.  Of those, 29 starts are by Roberto Garza at LG, but he hasn’t started a game there since 2007. 

To compound their lack of experience, the lineman in Mike Martz’s offense are expected to block without help from tight ends and running backs.  This system is what caused many people to feel that Jeff Backus is a below average LT, when the reality is that most LT's will struggle in this system.

Edge: Detroit

Defensive Line

The Lions have revamped their defensive line and have taken a weakness and turned it into the strength of the team.  "The Motor City Wrecking Crew," as I like to refer to them, led by second overall pick Ndamukong Suh, will reek havoc against an inexperienced Bears' offensive line.

The Bears signed this year’s prized free agent in Julius Peppers, and he will be a beast on third downs.  Tommie Harris is an all-pro at DT.  Anthony Adams is an adequate nose tackle.  The battle at LE was won by Israel Idonije, but figure Mark Anderson to rotate in at that spot.

The Bears' defensive line is not bad, but if things fall into place, Detroit’s line will show itself to be one of the NFL's best.

Edge: Detroit   

Linebackers

Detroit’s starting MLB DeAndre Levy has yet to practice this week and will probably not play on Sunday. He will be replaced by Landon Johnson. Zach Follett will make his first career start at OLB.  Julian Peterson mans the other OLB spot and should play better this year after having a rough go at it in Detroit’s 4-3 defense last year.

Brian Urlacher’s return to MLB for the Bears after missing most of the 2009 season with injury strengthens an already strong group of linebackers.  Lance Briggs was a question mark for this game, but he will start.  If outside linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa gets back to the form he showed in St Louis, than this is one of the better linebacking units in the league.

Edge: Chicago

Secondary

Detroit’s secondary returns only one starter from last year, Louis Delmas.  The other three starters, C.C. Brown, Jonathan Wade, and Chris Houston are all castoffs from other teams.  This unit is a great unknown but will, at least, tackle better than last year.

Chicago’s secondary could be the Achilles heel of their defense.  As with Detroit, only one player in the Bears' secondary can be considered a proven commodity, Zach Bowman.  The other three starters Chris Harris, Danieal Manning, and Charles Tillman all have their limitations. 

As limited as Chicago’s secondary might be, Detroit might have the league’s worst.

Edge: Chicago

Special Teams

Robbie Gould and Jason Hanson can be considered equals at kicker.  Chicago returns both Johnny Knox and Devin Hester, two of the better returners in the game. 

Meanwhile, Detroit is hoping waiver pickup Stefan Logan will revive a return game that has been dormant since Eddie Drummond was starring at the position.

Until Logan proves he can duplicate for the Lions what he did for the Steelers, this isn't even close.

Edge: Chicago

Prediction:

The Lions will be looking to break a 20 game road losing streak at Soldier Field, the site of their last road triumph. 

Detroit was very impressive in the preseason, especially on offense.  The Bears were trying to learn a new system and struggled in doing so.

If the Bears insist on using long-developing plays on offense, the Lions’ defensive line will knockout Cutler before half time.  Mike Martz will have to abandon his love for the long pass for the Bears to have a chance.

Even Mike Martz is not stubborn enough to play into Detroit’s hand. 

The Lions must prove they can win on the road before I can trust them.

Pick: Chicago 31, Detroit 27