Unanswered Questions: Who Is Going To Win Super Bowl XLV?

We are less than a week away from the beginning of the 2010 football season.  Men everywhere are scratching and grunting with more fervor than at any other time of the year.  But hope is the thread that binds together fans of all 32 NFL teams this time of year (well, hope and beer), and we’ve all heard the cliché that every team is undefeated at the beginning of the season. 

 But some teams just don’t have a chance.  We know it’s true.  Sorry St. Louis, it’s just not happening.  Other teams are loaded with talent and just have to make it through the minefield that is 17 weeks of football in the NFL.  Injuries, bad game plans, unhappy players, bad weather, and a host of other factors that are essentially unforeseeable are attempted to be predicted.  Every year sportswriters, fans, odds makers, and pretty much everyone in the entire United States of America takes on the almost impossible task of predicting the Super Bowl winner.  And all of this for two reasons.  Some people will try to make money with their amazing powers of prognostication.  The rest of us just want to say “I told you so.”  I fall into the later category. 

 Now that I realize how pointless and ridiculously difficult this is to do, I will give it my best shot. 

 History tells us that this year’s playoff teams won’t be the same as last year’s.  But history also tells us that it is extremely rare for a team with little to no recent playoff experience to get to, much less win, the Super Bowl.  Armed with that knowledge, we should legitimately be able to narrow down the list of likely contenders to a reasonably small size.

 The formula which I used to make my pick is a simple one.  I looked at the teams I believed to be contenders and then determined what I thought one major question that they have that keeps them from being a complete football team.  I chose this particular process after looking at history, once again.  It shows us that unless you have an all-time great defense, ala the Ravens in 2000, the team that walks away with the Lombardi is usually the most balanced team.  Teams that can run the ball, pass the ball, and play defense are much more adaptable to the different types of opponents that they will face in the playoffs and therefore much more likely to win three difficult games in a row. 

 So without further adieu, and in no particular order, I give you my unanswerable questions of the 2010 Super Bowl contenders:

 Indianapolis Colts - This team goes as Peyton Manning goes.  It’s that simple.  But they do have a question that will rear its ugly head this year.  In fact, it already has.  In February.  Their pass defense.  Not the old song and dance about stopping the run.  Nope.  It’s their pass defense that is extremely suspect.  Drew Brees completed 21 of 23 passes from the second quarter on of Super Bowl XLIV.  One of the incompletions was a spike at the end of the first half and the other was a dropped ball.  Now, I know, that’s Drew Brees, but if you want to win it all, chances are, you’re going to have to beat a Hall of Fame QB or two along the way.  Can the Colts stop a truly top tier QB when it matters most?  We have no real reason to think so.  The only time the Colts have defeated a great QB in the playoffs was the 2006 AFC Championship game against Tom Brady.  The other QB’s that the Colts have beaten in games that truly matter? Trent Green, Jake Plummer, Rex Grossman, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, and Steve McNair.  Ewww. 

 Minnesota Vikings – Great QB, great RB, good enough wide receivers, even without Rice.  Good Oline, great Dline, good linebackers.  This is a truly stout team.  Until someone sends in their 4 WR package and God forbid anyone goes 5 wide.  Benny Sapp has been traded, and Chris Cook is hurt.  So is Cedric Griffin.  Antoine Winfield is dinged up and may be losing a step.  You’re left with Asher Allen and Lito Sheppard.  And this isn’t the 2004 Lito Sheppard.  This defense will be 100% dependant on the pass rush.  They are lucky it’s a good one. 

 Green Bay Packers – Man, this team looks good on paper!  Amazing offense and stupendous defense.  Unfortunately, both of these are mirages of sorts.  The offense puts up a ton of yards and points by throwing the ball all over the lot.  This gets the mess beat out of Aaron Rodgers.  But they have to.  They can’t run the ball when it matters.  Like the Cowboys, the Oline is a question.  But not the big one.  Nope.  It’s the defense.  Wait, wait, wait.  How is that possible?  The team switched to a 3-4 last year and finished first in the NFL in turnovers, interceptions, second in yardage allowed.  That’s all true.  But you only have to look a bit further to see the truth.  The Pack played the Rams, Browns, Bucs, Seahawks, Bears (twice), and Lions (twice).  When you play half of your schedule against teams that are this bad on offense, your defense better look pretty good. 

 New England Patriots - This team has been the dynasty in the NFL for the last decade.  They still have Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Wes Welker.  They still run the ball fairly well even if we have no idea who the “starting” running back is.  The questions for this team is on defense.  We’ve all been used to the Pats having an extremely good group of LB’s to run Belicheck’s 3-4 defense.  But the days of Bruschi, Thomas, Vrable, and Seau are long gone.  Now, I love me some Jerrod Mayo.  That kid can play.  But Tully Banta-Cain is their best pass rusher?  Man, that ain’t good.  Brandon Spikes slipped in the draft, but could become a player, and who takes over for the recently cut Derrick Burgess?  This is a good team on both sides of the ball, but the heart of the 3-4 in New England is a big question mark.

 New York Jets – The question here is simple.  The quarterback.  I really do like the rest of the team and the coach, even if he is a bit of a blowhard.  But if you are going to have a question at one position going into the season, I’m not sure QB is the spot to have it. Can Sanchez play well enough to win plenty of games during the season with the team around him?  Sure.  Have they surrounded him with weapons and a defense?  Oh yeah Can he play well enough for 3 or 4 games in a row against the best competition?  Nobody has a clue. 

 Dallas Cowboys – Dallas, like the Vikings has an excellent team.  They have just about all the pieces needed.  However, their issue is a big one.  And by big, I mean the biggest group of guys on the field.  The Oline.  Flozell the Hotel is gone.  They’ve tried to move a right tackle to left tackle.  Can Doug Free block going backwards?  It’s not exactly an easy transition.  Two of the starting interior linemen are dinged up to start the season.  Now, this team has an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions, and the defense is capable of doing some good things as well.  But can this Oline keep the chains moving for Felix Jones and more importantly, keep Tony Romo upright?  Trent Cole, Brian Orakpo, and the entire Giants Dline can’t wait to find out. 

 San Diego Chargers – This is another really well rounded team.  They are missing a huge playmaker in Vincent Jackson, and an important piece in Marcus McNeil.  This wouldn’t seem to be the year to have these kinds of problems.  There’s no salary cap and the Colts and Pats seem vulnerable.  Now is the time to strike!  But should we really be surprised by anything AJ Smith does at this point?  Nah.  That’s just AJ being AJ.  Even without those guys, this is a very well balanced team.  The biggest question I have with them is where does the pass rush come from?  Merriman has been okay, but is obviously not his pre-roid self.  Phillips is acceptable coming off the edge.  Those two had a whopping 10 sacks combined last year.  This doesn’t exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing offensive coordinators.  With that much time to throw, Brady or Manning is going to have a field day. 

 Baltimore Ravens - The question here is simple.  The quarterback.  I really do like the rest of the team and the coach.  But if you are going to have a question at one position going into the season, I’m not sure QB is the spot to have it.  Can Flacco play well enough to win plenty of games during the season with the team around him?  Sure.  Have they surrounded him with weapons and a defense?  Oh yeah.  Can he play well enough for 3 or 4 games in a row against the best competition?  Nobody has a clue.  (And yes, I did just cut and paste exactly what I wrote about the Jets.  Minus the part about the coach being a blowhard, of course.)

 New Orleans Saints - The Saints won the hearts of a region in 2006 with a run to the NFC Championship Game.  Then last year, they won the Super Bowl to cement this team’s place in the hearts of the fans on the Gulf Coast.  Now we wonder if they can repeat.  The Saints main question is the same as last year.  Can they stop the run?  I still think the answer is definitively no.  Do they care?  No says I.  Quick, name the teams that have a good enough secondary to keep the Saints from turning the game into a track meet, thereby rendering the running game basically an afterthought.  Yep, you keep thinking, and I’ll keep waiting on that answer.

 New York Giants – This is probably the most balanced team in the NFL.  And by balanced, I really mean average.  Really average.  Eli is good.  The OLine is good, so are the RB’s and  WR’s and LB’s and DB’s.  They have an excellent Dline when those guys show up, but that isn’t exactly consistent either.  So the question is do the Giants have a playmaker on either side of the ball that actually scares anyone?  Right now, the answer is no. 

 Pittsburg Steelers – The first question here is how many of the first 4 games this season will they lose without Big Ben?  But that’s not the biggest question.  We know they play great defense.  We know they can’t run the ball very well, and they don’t care to.  Face it.  The Steelers are a passing team.  But who are they going to pass to? Santonio Holmes is gone.  Hines Ward is getting up in age.  Heath Miller is still a very good option at TE, but he’s still just a TE.  Mike Wallace hasn’t proven much yet.  So you’ve got a team that has no idea how they are going to put up points.  Oh, and they probably will start the season 1-3 without Ben, and that spells road playoff games, if any.  Meh.  Not a big fan. 

 So, after all that, what’s left?  Whose questions are the least severe?  I’ll go with the Saints, Patriots, Chargers and Packers.  The Vikings can make a strong case as well, but it just seems to me that there is way too much drama in that locker room.  I think the NFC Championship is played in the Superdome again and the AFC version will be in sunny San Diego.  The NFC version will be an instant classic, much like the Cards vs. Packers last year in the playoffs.  We could see 1,000 yards of offense combined.  Unfortunately for the cheese heads, I see the same result.  Just not enough defense on the Packers to scare the Saints.  In the AFC, the Pats and Chargers are not unfamiliar foes this time of year.  But the Pats have the edge at QB, WR, and Head Coach, and in my humble opinion, that’s just too much for the Bolts to overcome. 

 So Saints vs. the Patriots in Super Bowl XLV.  The dynasty against the repeat.  The NFL’s version of the good guys against the bad guys.  People will say it is too hard to repeat as champions and that’s the reason the Saints won’t win.  Hmmm.  Now let me say that I skipped statistics class in college to go to the university pool, but I’ll take a shot at these numbers.  Eight teams in the past have repeated as champs.  Out of 43 teams that had a shot at repeating 8 accomplished that feat.  That’s basically 1 out of 5.  Now if you figure that 8 of those teams were going for something a bit different (3-peat), that means 8 out of 35 teams who have gone for a second Super Bowl in a row have accomplished that feat.  That’s 1 out of 4.  Those odds aren’t as astronomical as everyone makes them out to be.  For a preview of how I predict the game to play out, re-watch last season’s week 12 Monday Night Football meeting of these two teams.  Yep, I’m sayin’ it. 

 TWO DAT!