NFL Picks Week 1: Seven Shockers You'd Never See Coming
Can you smell it in the air? The 2010 NFL regular season is just over 24 hours away. Come Thursday night, when the Saints and Vikings square off, all 32 teams will have played games by this time next week.
By that time, though, the damage will have been done. Upsets will have occurred, and fans of the defeated will be wondering what happened, while the victorious will be singing the praises of their heroes. For a week, anyway.
Who will be the upsets? Who will shock the world? Let's take a look at every game going on this week, all 16 of them, to determine where the upsets will occur, with the games ranked by the likelihood of an upset.
16. Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints
1 of 16
Arguably the game of the week. So, why is it so low? Simple: How can you have an upset in a game between two of the NFC's best teams?
You can't. The Saints are favored, because of the fact that they beat the Vikes in last year's NFC title game. Plus, Minnesota's wide receiver corps is looking awfully thin.
But the Vikings do still have Adrian Peterson, and Brett Favre, even if he is older than Moses. So expect a close, hard fought game, but don't look for any kind of upset.
Score: New Orleans 35, Minnesota 27
15. Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
2 of 16
The Dolphins are breaking in a new starting quarterback, feature 2 running backs over age 30, and have a middle of the pack defense, at best. If anyone is primed for an upset, it's them.
The only problem with that is that their Week 1 opponent, the Buffalo Bills, are in a 4-way race for the worst team in the NFL. No quarterback, one wideout, three running backs who could be every down guys, and a sub par run defense (30th in the NFL last year), means that there will be no Week 1 miracle at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
Final Score: Dolphins 27, Bills 10.
14. Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3 of 16
Wow. Talk about a stinker right off the bat. You can't have an upset if both teams are terrible. The Browns are right there with the Bills for NFL's worst, and the Bucs are at least a year away from being anything resembling a contender. This one will definitely be painful to watch.
Final Score: Tampa Bay 21, Cleveland 7.
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13. Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams
4 of 16
This could have been a major upset if anyone other than the Rams were playing the Cardinals this week. The Cards are trying out a new quarterback, are trying to start a serious, consistent running game, and have a suspect defense. Sounds like upset fodder to me.
But other than Steven Jackson, and possibly, possibly rookie quarterback Sam Bradford, there is absolutely nothing to get excited about in St. Louis.
Final Score: Arizona 21, St. Louis 14.
12. San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
5 of 16
There are a lot of people who think this could be a trap game for the Chargers. Opening on the road, with a new, untested running back, and unproven receivers is typically doom for a team who starts slowly historically.
But the Chiefs don't really pose much of a threat. Their passing game needs to improve, and while their run game is strong, they can't stop a thing defensively. The Chargers still have tight end Antonio Gates, and that's more than enough to beat Kansas City.
Final Score: San Diego 21, Kansas City 17.
11. Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants
6 of 16
Two relatively evenly matched teams means low upset chance. The Giants are young and have boatloads of offensive potential, with a wide receiver corps featuring Steve Smith 2.0, Hakeem Nicks, and Mario Manningham. Their run game is solid, but unspectacular, and their defense ranked squarely in the middle of the NFL last year in yards allowed rushing and passing.
The Panthers, meanwhile, excel running the ball, and struggle to throw it to their best wideout, Steve Smith 1.0. Their defense is excellent against the run, but struggle against the pass.
Look for Eli Manning and the Giants to exploit that weakness in the secondary to get the win.
Final Score: New York 28, Carolina 21.
10. Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
7 of 16
Ah, the first of the true potential upsets of the day. The Texans are 0-for-ever against Peyton Manning and the Colts, although they came awfully close to beating them last season.
Could it happen this year? Perhaps. The Texans have the same explosive passing game as last year, and may have finally found a running back in Arian Foster. Their defense, while full of stars, has never meshed well as a unit. Can it this year?
The Colts, meanwhile, look the part of Super Bowl runner-ups. An efficient offense, and a hopefully improved running game, will help offset whatever defensive shortcomings may exist.
Final Score: Colts 27, Texans 24. Better luck next game.
9. Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
8 of 16
Another clash of teams from last season who have extremely high hopes coming into 2010. The Jets feature second-year gunslinger Mark Sanchez, who looked like a rookie last year, as well as a running game that promises to be among the league's best. Defensively, there isn't a better unit in football than the Jets' green gang.
But the Ravens have a potent offense as well, led by third-year signal caller Joe Flacco. With a deep receiving corps highlighted by Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and a potentially unstoppable running back in Ray Rice, Baltimore may have finally gotten it's offense under control. Defensively, though, the team could be in trouble. The linebacking corps is a year older, and the secondary has been decimated by injury. Can they pull it together in time?
Final Score: Baltimore 35, New York 31.
8. San Fransisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
9 of 16
This one could be a lot closer than people think. San Fransisco has a potent offense, behind running back Frank Gore, quarterback Alex Smith, tight end Vernon Davis, and wideout Michael Crabtree. Defensively, the Niners were solid last year, and they're a popular pick to win the NFC West. But they're still unproven in terms of victories, and could be nervous.
Seattle has been a bit of a mess leading into the season, although things have gotten clearer in recent days. Matt Hasselbeck is serviceable when healthy, but who's he going to throw the ball to? Justin Forsett is talented, but he's small for an every down back. Can he handle the workload? Will the defense actually play well this year?
Final Score: San Fransisco 21, Seattle 17.
7. Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
10 of 16
This one could be a real gun fight. The Eagles are looking to prove that they made the right decision sending former quarterback Donovan McNabb to Washington, while the Packers look to show that all the hype following them into the season is justified.
Kevin Kolb, the Eagles' new quarterback didn't look good in preseason, and the run game, led by LeSean McCoy is unproven. But with tight end Brent Celek and wideouts DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, the Eagles could well contend for the NFC East.
In Green Bay, on the other hand Aaron Rodgers has emerged as one of the NFL's best quarterbacks, and the Packers' defense has come into its own.
Final Score: Green Bay 35, Philadelphia 31
6. Cincinnati Bengals @ New England Patriots
11 of 16
Palmer and the Bengals made an inglorious exit from the 2009 playoffs, losing to the Wild Card Jets despite amassing a 13-3 regular season record. New England, meanwhile, were run out of the stadium by the Ravens in the first round of the playoffs.
In New England, it all comes down to quarterback Tom Brady and wide receiver Randy Moss. The run game was shaky last year, but there are those who feel the answer lies in "The Law Firm", BenJarvus Green-Ellis. The defense is young, but not without hope.
The Bengals look to regain their elite passing game from 2006, and Carson Palmer is now 2 years removed from all those injuries. With his most talented receiving corps since arriving in Cincy, he could well acheive that.
There are those who see the Patriots as sleepers in the AFC East, but this game has trap written all over it.
Final Score: Cincinnati 35, New England 14.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos
12 of 16
The Broncos have looked sharp in the preseason, while the Jaguars have looked anything but. Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is used to having no proven wideouts to throw to (remember, he played most of his career in Chicago), and if Knowshon Moreno is healthy, the offense should be strong and balanced. Defensively, the Broncos are a bit of a mess up front, but their secondary is excellent.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, might be the most boring team in the entire NFL. Maurice Jones-Drew, the human bowling ball, has looked sharp in the preseason, and has been incredibly consistent in his career. Quarterback David Garrard is solid, but unspectacular, and outside of Mike Sims-Walker, there isn't much to write home about in the receiving corps either.
Final Score: Jacksonville 21, Denver 20.
4. Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
13 of 16
This could be the game of the day. The Falcons look to show that last season's missed playoffs were the exception, rather than the rule with Matt Ryan at the helm. The Steelers are trying to prove they don't need Ben Roethlisberger to be successful.
Pittsburgh's passing game could slip with Dennis Dixon at the helm, although the former Oregon Duck is a better passer than people give him credit for. Rashard Mendenhall is a strong back who will give the Steelers a run game they lacked last year. The defense should be significantly improved over last year's installment, with Troy Polamalu back.
The Falcons passing attack should be better than last year, as Ryan is more used to his wideouts and tight end Tony Gonzalez. Running back Michael Turner is a workhorse, and the Falcons run defense was strong last year.
Final Score: Pittsburgh 21, Atlanta 17. An upset, considering Steel City's quarterback.
3. Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
14 of 16
The first real shocker of the day. The Raiders are much improved with Jason Campbell running the offense, and they look to make waves in the AFC West this season. Meanwhile, Vince Young has re-established himself as the Titans quarterback of choice, and Tennessee has playoff aspirations too.
The Raiders wideout corps is better than you think, with speed across the board, and tight end Zach Miller is an underrated receiver. When Michael Bush is healthy, Oakland has depth at running back. Even when he's not, Darren McFadden is healthy and ready to prove he's not a bust.
Tennessee's run game is excellent, behind Chris Johnson. But the passing game remains a mystery; even if Young's questionable accuracy has improved, who will he throw the ball to? Young's a winner, but he's got to get some help from his wideouts.
Final Score: Oakland 21, Tennessee 14.
2. Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
15 of 16
Let's see here: We've got a team who are perennial underacheivers with an overrated receiving corps and a running game that can't stay healthy, taking on a team with a proven running back, a quarterback eager to prove himself, and the 6th best pass defense last season. Upset anyone?
Donovan McNabb is the new signal caller in D.C. and this team could surprise some people.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, lack a proven top receiver, have a quarterback who has 2 to 3 terrible games a season, and a pair of running back who can't stay healthy.
Final Score: Washington 28, Dallas 17.
1. Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
16 of 16
Everyone thinks the Lions are at least a year away. They're probably right, but here's the thing: the Bears aren't that good. Jay Cutler can't stop throwing the ball to the wrong colored hats, MAtt Forte was a flop last season, and the defense is old.
The Lions have a strong passing game, a suddenly dangerous looking run game, and a defense who can catch the ball when Cutler throws it to them. This will be the shocker of the weekend.
Final Score: Detroit 28, Chicago 10.
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