NFL Picks Week 1: Breaking Down The Lines For Each Game
Week 1 of the NFL season is almost here, so get out that credit card and get ready to place your bets.
The biggest game on the schedule is Thursday, a rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game between the Vikings and Saints in New Orleans.
Sportsbook.com currently has the Saints at -5 in what seems like a game that might be too close to call.
Here's a closer look at which teams will cover and who will move the lines in Week 1.
Minnesota at New Orleans
1 of 16
Line: Saints at -5
Is the Line Right? The Saints are at home and the reigning Super Bowl Champions, making them clear favorites. They will be without last year's difference-maker Darren Sharper in the secondary. The Vikings are without Sidney Rice but still have enough weapons around Brett Favre to compete with anybody.
Who Moves the Line for Vikings? Minnesota will have to run the ball better than it did last season, when Adrian Peterson deferred to Favre at times. This season, the Vikings will need to rely on A.P. to return to form. He is good enough to lead the Vikings to the upset.
Who Moves the Line for Saints? Regardless of who he is throwing to in Week 1, Drew Brees is the ultimate difference-maker.
Will the Saints Cover? Yes. New Orleans has too many weapons on offense, and Favre's magic might not manifest itself in the opener.
Carolina at New York Giants
2 of 16
Line: Giants at -7
Is the Line Right? Yes. The Giants have plenty of questions, but they at least have a reliable quarterback. Matt Moore isn't likely to be able to exploit the Giants' problems in the secondary, making forecasting the outcome of the game an easy task.
Who Moves the Line for the Panthers? It's up to Matt Moore. The Panthers will get off the bus running, and the Giants will crowd the box and make Moore take to the air. If he is successful, Carolina has a chance to beat the spread.
Who Moves the Line for the Giants? The Giants want to run the ball, but the best chance for success might be to open things up and let Eli Manning do his thing with a nice group of receivers.
Will the Giants Cover? Yes. John Fox could be in for a long year in Carolina, and the Giants will be ready to go. It won't be a blowout, but the Giants should win easily.
Miami at Buffalo
3 of 16
Line: Dolphins at -3
Is the Line Right? Yes. The visiting Dolphins appear to be in much better shape than the Bills, especially on offense with Brandon Marshall aboard to assist Chad Henne in his quest to become the next Dan Marino.
Who Will Move the Line for the Bills? C.J. Spiller is the most exciting player the Bills have had in years, and his ability to impact the game as a runner and receiver will inject the offense with much-needed life.
Who Will Move the Line for the Dolphins? This one could be ugly, and if it comes down to a low-scoring battle for field position, Miami might just have the edge. If Dolphins can't pass, they should still be able to grind out yards on the ground with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.
Will the Dolphins Cover? No. A new season breeds new optimism, and Chan Gailey's Bills do just enough to protect their house in the opener.
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Atlanta at Pittsburgh
4 of 16
Line: Falcons at -2.5
Is the Line Right? Yes. Dennis Dixon won the starting quarterback job by default in the preseason, and his play in Ben Roethlisberger's absence will be pivotal to determining the Steelers fate. There are simply too many unknowns to make Pittsburgh a safe bet in Week 1.
Who Moves the Line for the Steelers? Pittsburgh's defense will need to play well until the offense proves it can move the ball and score with consistency. The secondary will need to focus on Roddy White, who is basically the only legitimate deep threat in Atlanta's passing game.
Who Moves the Line for the Falcons? Everybody knows Atlanta wants to run the ball first to establish the play-action game for Matt Ryan. That means Michael Turner, who shed some pounds in the offseason in hopes of returning to top form.
Will the Falcons Cover? Yes. Dixon's talent is difficult to miss, but he remains very raw as he enters his third season. More importantly, he is prone to turning the ball over and making mistakes at the wrong time. The Falcons capitalize and leave Pittsburgh with a win.
Detroit at Chicago
5 of 16
Line: Bears at -6.5
Is the Line Right? No. The Lions might be a young team with a horrendous track record in recent years, but things are looking up in Detroit. Meanwhile, the Bears have looked horrible in preseason, especially on the offensive line.
Who Moves the Line for the Lions? Matthew Stafford needs to build on his rookie season, and starting off with a rare road win for the Lions would be a big step. Detroit added more weapons on offense in the offseason, including Jahvid Best and Nate Burleson, to help aid Stafford's development.
Who Moves the Line for the Bears? Jay Cutler hasn't exactly endeared himself to Chicago fans, but he could be telling the truth in saying Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz didn't show the total package in the preseason. The Martz system is ridiculously complex, and maybe the growing pains have come and gone. If Cutler can produce, the Bears should be able to pull off a win.
Will the Bears Cover? No. If the Bears win, it won't be by very much. The line in this game is surprising to say the least, and a young Lions team ready to start the season on a good note could easily notch a road win.
Cincinnati at New England
6 of 16
Line: Patriots at 4.5
Is the Line Right? Yes. The Patriots have a clear blueprint for success and a young defense that should be fun to watch this season. The Bengals have a collection of veterans worth watching, but the Pats are the clear favorite in the opener.
Who Moves the Line for the Bengals? Carson Palmer has his hands full this season as he balances egos, but that works both ways. The Bengals are extremely deep at receiver and have provided Palmer with six legitimate weapons in the passing game, including Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. The Patriots weakness is in the secondary, and Palmer will need to exploit it in Week 1.
Who Moves the Line for the Patriots? Laurence Maroney may or may not be in the doghouse at any given time, but he remains the most talented back on the Patriots roster. A big game from Maroney would be a surprise and carry the Pats to victory.
Will the Patriots Cover? Yes. Bill Belichick is used to dealing with controversy and has kept the Tom Brady contract talks from becoming a distraction. New England wins easily.
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
7 of 16
Line: Buccaneers at -3
Is the Line Right? Yes. The Bucs might not be favored in many games this season, but the comfort of playing the opener at home gives them an advantage.
Who Moves the Line for the Browns? Jerome Harrison quietly produced last season, and his production against Tampa's defense will be critical in Week 1. If the Browns can run the ball, it should be enough to edge the Bucs.
Who Moves the Line for the Bucs? The development of Josh Freeman will be one of the biggest story lines in Tampa's season. Freeman and the offense might not be able to outscore many opponents, but they figure to have a chance against the Browns.
Will the Bucs Cover? No. Tampa has a million questions on both sides of the ball, and the Browns at least have capable veterans. Cleveland gets off to a good start for Mike Holmgren with a win in the opener.
Denver at Jacksonville
8 of 16
Line: Jaguars at -3
Is the Line Right? Yes. The Broncos might have Tim Tebow, but they aren't likely to have much else to get excited about this season. A scrappy effort might might not be enough to defeat Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jags.
Who Moves the Line for the Broncos? Kyle Orton is the ultimate game manager, but it will be difficult to manage the game without having Brandon Marshall as a reliable go-to option. If Eddie Royal and Denver's receivers respond and play well, Orton has a chance to produce a victory in Week 1.
Who Moves the Line for the Jaguars? It starts and ends with Jones-Drew in Jacksonville, but David Garrard could be the key. The emergence of Mike Sims-Walker last season gave the Jags a much-needed No. 1 on the outside. A big game from Garrard would lead to an easy win.
Will the Jaguars Cover? Yes. Jacksonville is still in rebuilding mode, but a healthy Jones-Drew and efficient Garrard would be enough to beat Denver at home.
Indianapolis at Houston
9 of 16
Line: Colts at -2.5
Is the Line Right? No. This one is tough to call, but Houston is a tough team and should get some consideration for being the home team.
Who Moves the Line for the Texans? The Texans are loaded at receiver and set at quarterback, but they still need a running game. Whether it's Arian Foster or Steve Slaton, Houston needs to find a running game, and it starts in the opener.
Who Moves the Line for the Colts? Good ol' Peyton Manning. Mr. Reliable has tons of weapons and should be able to compensate for the Colts' shortcomings on the defensive side of the ball.
Will the Colts Cover? No. The Texans can score with just about anybody and should be improved defensively. One of the best games of Week 1 goes to the home team.
Green Bay at Philadelphia
10 of 16
Line: Green Bay at -3
Is the Line Right? No. The Packers are a trendy pick to contend for the Super Bowl, but they have health issues in the secondary and an offensive line that could stand to improve. Historically, the Packers haven't played well in Philly. This one is a puzzler.
Who Moves the Line for the Eagles? Kevin Kolb is the obvious answer, but LeSean McCoy could have a big impact for the Eagles. His value might come in the passing game against the Packers defense, and his ability to pick up the blitz will be a key factor in Kolb's success.
Who Moves the Line for the Packers? Aaron Rodgers is an MVP candidate, but Ryan Grant might be the most important player on Green Bay's offense this season. The Packers struggled to run the ball consistently last year and need Grant to move the chains against the Eagles' rush defense.
Will the Packers Cover? No. Even with many young players stepping into new roles, the Eagles should be able to protect their home turf in Week 1.
San Francisco at Seattle
11 of 16
Line: 49ers at -3
Is the Line Right? Yes. The Seahawks have tons of questions, and the 49ers have Frank Gore and an outstanding defense.
Who Moves the Line for the Seahawks? Matt Hasselbeck is still in Seattle and once again finds himself without any running game to speak of. The receiving corps isn't great either, but Mike Williams and John Carlson could contribute against the 'Niners in Week 1.
Who Moves the Line for the 49ers? Alex Smith needs to take care of the ball and manage the offense against a team like the Seahawks. It's that simple.
Will the 49ers Cover? Yes. The 49ers should have an easy road to the playoffs this season, and it starts with a win over division rival Seattle.
Arizona at St. Louis
12 of 16
Line: Arizona at -4
Is the Line Right? Yes. The Rams are starting a rookie quarterback and don't have many weapons on either side of the ball. The Cardinals are no longer burdened by a quarterback controversy.
Who Moves the Line for the Rams? Steven Jackson is the Rams offense, and his workload should be huge against the Cardinals. If he accumulates around 150 total yards, Sam Bradford has a chance to win his first career start.
Who Moves the Line for the Cardinals? Derek Anderson has a big arm, but he lacks mobility and always seems to make mistakes at the wrong time. If Anderson gets off to a good start, he could have a big game against the Rams.
Will the Cardinals Cover? Yes. The Rams have a chance to win three or four games this season, but don't expect one of those victories to come in Week 1.
Oakland at Tennessee
13 of 16
Line: Titans at -6.5
Is the Line Right? Yes. The Titans have far fewer problems than the Raiders, and more importantly, they have Chris Johnson.
Who Moves the Line for the Raiders? Jason Campbell is expected to play in Week 1, which would make the Raiders a below-average offense instead of an awful offense.
Who Moves the Line for the Titans? Vince Young won't be needed in this game, but his production in the passing game would certainly make things easier for Jeff Fisher.
Will the Titans Cover? Yes. The Raiders have one of the more underrated defensive units in the NFL, but the Titans have a clear edge in Week 1, especially if Campbell isn't 100 percent.
Dallas at Washington
14 of 16
Line: Cowboys at -3.5
Is the Line Right? Yes. It's the season opener, but the Redskins already have had a season's worth of problems. Albert Haynesworth is apparently on the trading block but is still part of the team, and Donovan McNabb won't be completely healthy for Week 1.
Who Moves the Line for the Redskins? Washington needs to run the ball; that means Clinton Portis and a host of other backs must produce in Week 1, especially if McNabb is limited.
Who Moves the Line for the Cowboys? The Cowboys should be able to run the ball against the Redskins, and the big-play abilities of Felix Jones could be enough to put some distance between Dallas and Washington on the scoreboard.
Will the Cowboys Cover? Yes. It might take a while for Mike Shanahan to figure things out in D.C.
Baltimore at New York Jets
15 of 16
Line: Jets at - 2.5
Is the Line Right? Yes. The Jets are a trendy Super Bowl pick for a reason, with a strong running game and a great defense. The Ravens have questions on defense, especially in the secondary.
Who Moves the Line for the Ravens? Ray Rice has quietly become one of the best backs in the NFL, and his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield could cause the Jets problems.
Who Moves the Line for the Jets? Mark Sanchez can't keep making mistakes. The Jets' running game might struggle against the Ravens' solid front seven, so Sanchez will have to make a few plays for the offense.
Will the Jets Cover? No. Too many distractions, not enough continuity quite yet. Baltimore steals one in the opener.
San Diego at Kansas City
16 of 16
Line: Chargers at - 4.5
Is the Line Right? Yes. This could potentially be a trap game for the Chargers, but that doesn't make it a safe bet to pick on the offensively challenged Chiefs.
Who Moves the Line for the Chiefs? It's time for Matt Cassel to show he can play. With a new offensive coordinator and a dedicated Dwayne Bowe, there are simply no more excuses.
Who Moves the Line for the Chargers? Ryan Matthews is flying under the radar as a rookie, but that might not continue for long. The Chargers are counting on him to contribute early and often this season, and that starts with a big game against the Chiefs.
Will the Chargers Cover? Yes. Trap games usually happen in Week 1, but the Chiefs didn't show enough in the preseason to make them a likely pick to pull off an upset.
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