ChanceBot Simulations: Week 14 Game Impacts

Impact is determined by calculating the degree to which the outcome of each game changes playoff chances for each team.

The total Impact of a game is the sum of the team-by-team changes. A detailed example of how these values are calculated is included below.

What follows are the Impact values for Week 14...

Matchup	IMP
Arizona at Seattle	84.9
San Diego at Tennessee	73.5
Minnesota at San Francisco	63.9
Cleveland at NY Jets	61.8
NY Giants at Philadelphia	41.4
Carolina at Jacksonville	32.0
Dallas at Detroit	27.9
Chicago at Washington	22.8
New Orleans at Atlanta	14.1
Miami at Buffalo	9.6
Kansas City at Denver	8.0
Tampa Bay at Houston	2.8
St. Louis at Cincinnati	2.2
Pittsburgh at New England	2.1
Oakland at Green Bay	0.2
Indianapolis at Baltimore	0.0

How Impact Is Calculated

Imagine a simple scenario in which Teams A and B are playing in the final week of the season.

Suppose there's a third team, Team C, which has a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs (depending on outcomes of other games) if Team A wins. If Team B wins, on the other hand, Team C will have only a five percent chance of making the playoffs.

The impact of the game between A and B on Team C is 45—the difference between 50 and five.

The total impact of A vs. B is determined by adding the game's individual impacts on each of the teams in the league.

Mark Myers is the founder and primary developer at ChanceBot.com, a sports simulation and analysis website. He can be reached at [e-mail].