UFC 118 Fight Card: Preview and Predictions for Main Card

Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn

The Hype: At UFC 112, Frankie Edgar became the UFC lightweight champion with his unanimous decision victory over B.J. Penn. Despite a very closely contested fight, one judge scored the bout 50-45 in favor of Edgar. The controversial nature of the decision prompted the UFC to award Penn an immediate rematch with Edgar.

Days after the loss to Edgar, Penn’s autobiography, which is ironically titled “Why I Fight: The Belt is Just an Accessory,” was released.

In addition to getting that accessory back, a win over Edgar will enhance Penn’s legacy by erasing his controversial defeat to the current champion.

Edgar’s Key to Victory: Edgar wrote the script on beating Penn at UFC 112. Yet Edgar could only manage a very close decision despite executing his game plan to perfection. While it is predictable and will be far from easy, Edgar’s best chance of retaining the lightweight title will be to replicate his last performance against Penn.

Penn’s Key to Victory: If Penn wants to regain his spot at the top of the lightweight division he will need to be more aggressive in this second meeting with Edgar. Penn should look to take the fight to the ground and work for submissions.

The Fight: Edgar will likely enter this fight with a very similar game plan to his first fight with Penn. Penn can exploit that by coming out much more aggressively this time around. Because Edgar doesn’t possess the power to finish this fight, Penn should be comfortable exchanging without fear of being knocked out.

Edgar will probably land more punches on his feet in this fight, but Penn should be able to land the more meaningful strikes. After softening Edgar up on his feet, Penn may look to take this fight to the ground, something he didn’t even attempt in the first meeting.

Edgar’s submission defense is something that really has not been tested yet in his career, especially against someone with Penn’s ability to submit him. If Penn is able to take Edgar down, there is a very good chance that there will be no opportunity for a judging controversy after this fight.

The Finish: Penn defeats Edgar by submission (Rear Naked choke) in the third round

Randy Couture vs. James Toney

The Hype: Like many people, I disagree with the way the UFC has promoted this fight as boxing vs. UFC. First of all, it should be boxing vs. mixed martial arts if you want to promote it that way. But I do understand that the UFC is looking to capitalize further on the fact that casual fans believe the sport of MMA is actually called UFC. More importantly, James Toney will not be a boxer when he steps into the ring at UFC 118.

Toney will be a mixed martial artist. He will be a very one-dimensional mixed martial artist, but a mixed martial artist nonetheless. Randy Couture did not take this fight to represent mixed martial arts. Couture took this fight to prove that there is no place for one-dimensional mixed martial artists in this sport anymore.

Couture’s Key to Victory: The only way Couture loses to Toney is if he is stupid enough to stand with him. That being said, Couture is one of the best game planning fighters in MMA. Unless Toney is able to stop a takedown with a punch, as he believes he will be able to, there is no possible way Couture will lose this fight.

Toney’s Key to Victory: If Toney—in the short time he has had to prepare for his MMA debut—has developed the takedown defense to stop one of the best grapplers in MMA history, he might have a shot at winning this fight. Even if Toney has accomplished that unrealistic feat, he will need to maintain distance from Couture for 15 minutes.

The Fight: Couture intelligently throws a punch and immediately clinches with Toney. After slamming Toney to the mat violently, Couture beats up the boxing champion for the majority of the first round. While I’m sure Couture would love to repeat that process for three rounds, he is too intelligent to risk starting another round standing up. Couture waits until late in the first round to lock up an all too easy rear naked choke.

The Finish: Couture defeats Toney by submission (Rear Naked Choke) in the first round

Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda

The Hype: After his loss to Anderson Silva, Demian Maia returns to the octagon to face Mario Miranda. A win for Maia would put Maia back at the top of the heap in the middleweight division. A loss would be devastatingly bad for Maia’s chances to ever return to a championship fight.

Miranda rebounded from a loss in his UFC debut with a TKO victory over David Loiseau at UFC 115. A win against Maia could propel Miranda into the middleweight title picture that has become extremely crowded over the past few months.

Maia’s Key to Victory: While Miranda is no slouch on the ground, Maia is simply one of the best in the world. From top or bottom position Maia has the ability to finish Miranda with a submission. However, Maia may need to hope Miranda makes the mistake of taking the fight to the ground for him because it won’t be easy for Maia to take Miranda down.

Miranda’s Key to Victory: While Miranda would have the advantage in striking, that would be out of Miranda’s comfort zone. Since it is more probable that Miranda will take this fight to the ground, he should try to be conservative in his ground and pound if he wants to survive Maia’s ground game.

The Fight: Miranda is an aggressive fighter that looks to ground his opponents and finish them with wild ground and pound. While that may have worked to Miranda’s advantage in his last fight, it is stylistic suicide against Maia.

Miranda will realize his mistake soon after he slams Maia to the canvas. Miranda’s aggressive ground game lends itself to opportunity for one of the best submission artists in the world to work his craft. Soon enough, Miranda will find himself tapping.

The Finish: Maia defeats Miranda by submission (Triangle choke) in the first round

Kenny Florian vs. Gray Maynard

The Hype: After losing his second shot at a title against B.J. Penn, Kenny Florian will find himself in line for a third shot at the belt if he is able to beat Gray Maynard at UFC 118. Dana White has announced that the winner of this fight will be next in line to fight the winner of Frankie Edgar vs. B.J. Penn.

Maynard remained undefeated in his career after earning a split decision victory over Nate Diaz in his last fight. The only fighter to have beaten current lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, Maynard and many others felt that he should have received a title shot against Penn prior to Edgar.

Florian’s Key to Victory: Takedown defense will be vital in order for Florian to ensure his success in this fight. Maynard is world-class wrestler and has the ability to neutralize Florian’s striking advantage with lay and pray.

Maynard’s Key to Victory: If Maynard tries to stand and strike with Florian like he did against Diaz, he might fight himself with the first loss of his career. It sounds redundant considering Florian’s key to victory, but the outcome of this fight solely rests on whether or not Maynard is able to keep Florian on his back.

The Fight: Florian has been training with Georges St. Pierre for this fight. St. Pierre’s takedowns are much more powerful and unpredictable than Maynard’s. That being said, Florian will not be able to stop all of Maynard’s efforts to take the fight to the ground. However, Florian should be able to keep the fight standing long enough to inflict enough damage to have the judges see the fight in his favor.

The Finish: Florian defeats Maynard by unanimous decision

Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis

The Hype: After losing two consecutive fights, Marcus Davis bounced back with a TKO victory over Jonathan Goulet. The victory secured his place in the UFC for an extended period of time and earned him a fight against Nate Diaz.

Diaz, who recently bumped up to welterweight from lightweight, won his last fight against Rory Markham by TKO in the first round. His transition to welterweight off to a good start, Diaz will now attempt to begin his rise up the division’s rankings.

Diaz’s Key to Victory: Stylistically, Diaz is a horrible matchup for Davis. Davis’ best shot at winning this fight would be on his feet, but Diaz has an outstanding chin and a reach advantage that should be able to counteract Davis’ boxing. Wherever this fight goes, Diaz will have the advantage.

Davis’ Key to Victory: Davis will want this fight to be a stand-up war and Diaz should oblige. Since it is going to be hard to finish Diaz, Davis will probably have to fight a very smart stand-up fight for three rounds and avoid being taken down in order to win this fight.

The Fight: This fight is an early favorite for Fight of the Night because of both fighters willingness to stand and trade. While that type of fight would usually play into Davis’ favor, Diaz has the reach and chin to serve Davis a dose of his own medicine.

Diaz could easily end this fight with a submission on the ground, but he has never been one to shy away from a stand-up war. Diaz should be able to eat Davis’ best shots before putting “The Irish Hand Grenade” away with an explosion of his own.

The Finish: Diaz defeats Davis by TKO in the second round