UFC 118 Fight Card: Why B.J. Penn Will Beat Frankie Edgar

Well folks, UFC 118 is now upon us. I don't know about you, but I think that this is the perfect way to end what has amounted to a pretty action packed summer. 

It all started with the submission that shocked the world in June with Fabricio Werdum securing a Triangle Choke w/ Armbar to beat the formally unbeatable Fedor Emelianenko. 

By July, we welcomed back the beastly Brock Lesnar after a near career ending illness which had him sidelined for over 6 months.

In a true clash of MMA titans, Lesnar faced off against the heavy handed and equally scary Shane Carwin. While Carwin proved that Lesnar could be dominated, he lacked the stamina to finish, and Brock was able to retain the title of undisputed UFC Heavyweight champion. 

At the start of this month, we saw something which we thought would never happen: UFC Middleweight Champion, Anderson Silva was tested.

Actually tested is an extreme understatement considering The Spider's superior skill set and utter dominance within the middleweight division over the past few years. 

Now who would be capable of accomplishing such an unlikely feat? Well, Chael Sonnen of course.

Thanks to Mr. Sonnen, the 185lb division suddenly became interesting again. The verbal marksmanship that he used to hype the main event for UFC 117 was incredibly entertaining; but what made it even more amazing is that Sonnen was able to back up every word of his trash talk in the octagon except for winning.

This fight certainly deserves a rematch for 2011 (Mr. White & Mr.Silva, I'm looking at you).

Throw in the recent dethroning of King Mo, the ship - jumping of Jake Shields from Strikeforce to the UFC, as well as a host of other significant victories,losses, knockouts,& submissions, and MMA Summer 2010 was fantastic.

So now we have UFC 118 in Boston. This card presents key match ups which will answer a few questions about what the upper level of the lightweight division is going to look like over the next year; and the deciding match up to keep your eye on is a much anticipated rematch for the Lightweight title between current champ Frankie "The Answer" Edgar and former champ "The Prodigy" B.J. Penn. 

B/R takes you through a breakdown of this match up and shows you why Penn will walk out of Beantown with the strap. 

B.J.'s Motivation

B.J. is the type of fighter that needs to be motivated in order to train hard for an opponent.

We've seen countless examples of this in his previous fights. Usually, the motivation will stem from Penn's opponent trash talking a few weeks prior to the match up. 

Unfortunately, for his opponents it's the worst thing they could do. I'm not sure if you've noticed, but B.J. is a bit on the crazy side. He's a very proud individual and doesn't take likely to being mocked or called out in anyway. 

In fact, if he'll even go so far to create beef in his mind so he can have a reason to destroy his opponent. 

Here is a shortlist of his "greatest hits" from his last few opponents that talked smack:

1. Kenny Florian: UFC 101 - Rear Naked Choke - Round 4
2. Diego Sanchez: UFC 107 - TKO ( cut) - Round 5

It wasn't so much that beat these guys, he punished them, and all because they talked a little. 

Now Frankie Edgar, has been nothing be respectful towards the former champ, but it's already too  late. The bullseye has already been marked on Edgar's back, and Penn's got the sniper's rifle. 

ANALYSIS RECAP: A motivated B.J.Penn equals a very, very dangerous fighter; An angry B.J. Penn equals a long night for Frankie Edgar.  

Improved Stand Up Game Plan

Legendary Boxing coach, Freddie Roach has been quoted as saying that B.J. Penn "has the best striking in MMA."

While It is true that Penn's boxing is crisp and powerful, he never really used a proper plan against Edgar.

Throughout each of their exchanges,The Answer darted in and out; each time throwing 3 to 4 punch combinations while Penn simply stood there and countered with big lumbering home run swings to try and end the fight.

In the mind of the judges, it looked as though Edgar was getting the better of Penn due to his activity.

Recently on Countdown to UFC 118 , Penn even admitted that his combos were just not there, and this had to improve. 

ANALYSIS RECAP: By picking Edgar off with a higher volume of crisp punches, and cutting off the cage to limit Edgar's movement, B.J. will have the upper hand when setting up his take downs. 

Take It To The Floor

Do you know what was missing in Penn v. Edgar 1? The ground game.

With Edgar being an accomplished NCAA Division I wrestler out of Clarion University of Pennsylvania, and Penn holding the honor of being the first American to win the World Jiu Jitsu Championship(2000) , it's surprising that there wasn't more time spent on the ground. 

Frankly, B.J. needs to remember his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu roots and take the fight downstairs. It's where he's at his best. Between his freakish flexibility and incredible submissions, Edgar would have a difficult time beating Penn if the fight goes in that direction. 

ANALYSIS RECAP: With Penn working off of an improved stand up plan, he'll have the chance to get Edgar to the ground. Once there, Edgar will learn why The Prodigy was able to earn his Jiu Jitsu Blackbelt in less than 4 years of training. 

Pressure of the First Title Defense

At UFC 118, Frankie Edgar will need to do something that he has yet to do in his Mixed Martial Arts career which is defend his belt. 

Back before UFC 112, The Answer left many fans questioning whether anyone in the 155lb division could possibly beat B.J. Penn now that he's renewed his efforts at being a great champion and began the habit of dismantling his opponents with ease. 

After UFC 112 however, Edgar has become a real life Rocky. The New Jersey native, who's underdog personality and humility makes you want to root for him has certainly raised his profile in a very short time. 

The only problem with working so hard to achieve greatness is that once you've reached it, how hard do you keep working to keep up that success? 

Once again The Answer has created a new set of questions for MMA fans:

- Will Edgar be able to repeat the same performance that he had back in April against a now fired up B.J. Penn?

- Have the pressures and demands of being a newly crowned champion taken a toll on the 28 year old's training camp?

- Does Frankie now fear what he can lose?, and will he let it affect his game plan going into the fight?

ANALYSIS RECAP: Edgar won't be too rattled in this rematch, but if he gets caught in a bad spot early enough in the fight, it might just be a matter of time till Penn goes in for the kill. 

Predictions

In a nutshell, if B.J. Penn changes his attack plan and pressures Edgar. He can get him to the floor and pull off his go to submission - The Rear Naked Choke. 

Once in the grips of this hold, Edgar is all but finished. 

ANALYSIS RECAP: Look for the fight to go about 4 rounds max. Penn will not leave it in the hands of the judges this time. He will want to win definitively.