Gambler's Preview UFC 118 (Penn Vs Edgar)

As UFC 118 approaches, I am back to handicap two of the fights on the main card.  As always, my strategy will use hedging and prop bets to mitigate risk and maximize returns.

My UFC 117 preview was textbook.  I knew the fighters well and was able to determine the probable outcomes.  From that point, I was able to employ a strategy that took the most prudent route to a victory on fight night.  Hopefully, UFC 118 will be equally successful. Check out 117 preview here for full detail:  

Wagering on MMA offers somewhat of an advantage to the gambler.  The sport is capable of huge upsets with high payouts and rarely does a championship caliber fighter run an extended win streak. Because of the high level of competition faced with different fighting styles, a fighter is generally exposed within 3-4 title defenses (Anderson Silva the exception to the rule).

Additionally, the sport is so new that when the odds are created (lines are created and move by wagering trends, not by the forecast of fight outcomes) the casual fight fan will wager with the household name, this will in turn provide strong odds for the challenger that may have superior fighting skills or a fighting style that will cause a mismatch in the cage.

BJ Penn versus Frankie Edgar is a rematch from UFC 112.  The fight went five rounds with Edgar dethroning BJ for the lightweight belt.  The decision was somewhat controversial, although all three judges had Edgar winning the fight.  I agree with the judges from that night and believe Edgar is the deserving champ in that division. Nevertheless a rematch was announced and will play out this Saturday.  So how will this fight end, and how does one go about wagering on it?

I will first discuss each fighter's strengths and weaknesses and also address historical trends in their bouts.  I will then provide the betting strategy that I find most advantageous to the gambler.

BJ Penn also known as "The Prodigy" is a brilliant fighter with exceptional BJJ.  Penn is thought to have earned the fastest black belt (3 years) in the art's history.  BJ is also a very solid striker that has fought many times in the welterweight division with success.  Penn's loss to Edgar marked his second loss at that weight class in 8 years, with his other career losses coming against naturally larger fighters such as Machida, Hughes, and GSP at higher and catch weights.  

BJ ends fights.  His last 5 victories have come within the rounds and he will not allow this fight to end up in the judge's scorecards again.  He is going to come at Edgar early and often looking to get this fight to the ground where he has the advantage.  He stood with Edgar last fight, and we all know how that ended.

Frankie Edgar is not as seasoned as Penn, but has been very impressive boasting a 12-1 record since entering MMA.  Unlike BJ, Edgar does not end fights. In Edgar's 8 of his last 10 fights, the judges have decided the outcome.

What impresses me most about Edgar was his win over Sherk.  Sherk is one of the most underrated fighters of all time and Edgar joins the elite company of Hughes, Penn, and GSP as the only fighters to ever beat Sherk.  Do not be fooled, Frankie Edgar is a very good fighter that is well rounded with strong wrestling, BJJ, and boxing. 

So here is how I have the fight shaking out:

Most likely scenario:

Penn stopping Edgar within the rounds as my most probable outcome.  Now here is why you must look at every bet to get the best pricing.  For instance, BJ winning the fight in any fashion is -310.  Translation you must wager $310 to win $100. Not very good odds considering their last fight.

However, BJ Penn to win inside of rounds is better than even money at +110. Meaning if you wager $100 you will win $110.     A significant swing of the odds in your favor happens with the removal of Penn by decision.

Now the hedge is inserted with Edgar by decision wager at +405.  Edgar will unlikely have the power to KO Penn and should not be able to submit him, as he is clearly inferior at BJJ and has not shown historically that he can stop fights.  

BETS PLACED:

Penn inside rounds: +110 ($200)

Edgar by Decision: +405 ($100)

NET RESULTS 

Penn inside rounds: + $120 

Edgar by Decision: + $205

This only leaves two scenarios for a loss, Penn by decision and Edgar by stoppage.  All history between the two fighters indicates that these are not likely outcomes and the strategy is reflective of these trends.

This may be a very similar approach to the last match I previewed (Silva vs. Sonnen); however, I can assure you this is not the standard for every fight.

This will be evident as soon as all of the Toney/Couture prop bets become available. Look for that preview later this week.  

MOST IMPORTANTLY, ALWAYS REMEMBER TO ONLY WAGER WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE!

*UFC 118 fighting odds and betting odds are provided by an independent third party website and are for informational and entertainment purposes only.