NASCAR: Tracking The Race to The Chase With Three Races To Go

Looking at the Chase following Michigan, it looks like the battle will be from 11th (maybe 10th) to 20th, if looking at a 200 point breakdown.

So who, out of the bunch, will be part of the top 12 after Richmond and in the Chase for the Championship? Well, here are the positions ninth to 20th after Michigan.

Pos.	Driver	Points Total	Point Breakdown
9.	No. 17 Matt Kenseth	2961	+206
10.	No. 2 Kurt Busch	2935	+180
11.	No. 16 Greg Biffle	2913	+158
12.	No. 33 Clint Bowyer	2755	(=)
13.	No. 5 Mark Martin	2720	-35
14.	No. 39 Ryan Newman	2652	-68
15.	No. 1 Jamie McMurray	2650	-70
16.	No. 9 Kasey Kahne	2629	-126
17.	No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.	2626	-129
18.	No. 00 David Reuitmann	2590	-165
19.	No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya	2582	-173
20.	No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.	2548	-209

Nobody knows who will make it exactly as you never know what will happen during a race, but a way to predict is looking at how a driver has finished at a track in the past, through their average finish.

Pos.	Driver	Avg. Finish – Bristol	Avg. Finish – Fontana	Avg. Finish – Richmond
9.	No. 17 Matt Kenseth	12.7	9.1	17
10.	No. 2 Kurt Busch	13.2	12.2	17.8
11.	No. 16 Greg Biffle	11	16.8	16
12.	No. 33 Clint Bowyer	18	12	10.2
13.	No. 5 Mark Martin	12.9	13.7	23
14.	No. 39 Ryan Newman	18.2	20	11.4
15.	No. 1 Jamie McMurray	19.3	16.4	25.2
16.	No. 9 Kasey Kahne	21.3	16.2	18.2
17.	No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.	11.4	22.6	13.2
18.	No. 00 David Reuitmann	22.4	20.6	19.4
19.	No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya	20.4	21.4	23.4
20.	No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.	23.6	21.6	23.7

Based upon this, you can then predict who will be in and who will be out based upon what their average finishes equal in points.

Following Bristol, if you calculate the points based upon average finish, you’ll see Dale Earnhardt Jr. move up a spot, past Kasey Kahne. With regards to spacing, Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, and Greg Biffle would become closer to being locked in. On the other side, Mark Martin would gain 15 points and Earnhardt Jr. would gain 21 points, while everybody else would lose points to Clint Bowyer, who sits 12th.

Following California if you continue down this road, Ryan Newman and Jamie McMurray would flip positions and Earnhardt Jr. would be 16th while Kahne is 17th. As far as the spacing,  Kenseth, Busch, and Biffle would be locked in while David Reuitmann, Juan Pablo Montoya, and Martin Truex Jr. are locked out. The points spread left from 12 (Bowyer) to 17th would be 147 points. Bowyer looks to sit 12th followed by Martin (-23), McMurray (-123), Newman (-127), Earnhardt Jr. (-138) and Kahne (-147).

Following Richmond if you continue this way, Martin would make the Chase by five points over Bowyer. Behind Bowyer, it’d be Newman (-20), Earnhardt Jr. (-129), McMurray (-150), and Kahne (-153).

This is obviously a guess as to what could happen as sometimes people can do above average (win, top five) or below average (wreck, mechanical failure) so anything and everything is possible. That is why we watch and what keeps us intrigued all the way to the final lap at Richmond.