Boise State: National Title Worthy in 2010?

We are a mere two weeks away from the kickoff of the 2010 college football season. 

Leading up to this much anticipated moment has been a lot of jawing and talking amongst college football fans, plus the release of some of major publications and prognosticators preseason polls.

The most distinguished and meaningful poll that has been released is the USA Today Coaches' Poll.

Skimming through those rankings you'll find many of the normals getting preseason love:  Alabama, Ohio State, Texas, Florida, Virginia Tech, and Oklahoma.  What you may also notice is the lofty ranking of non-BCS contender Boise State sitting at #5.

This is easily the highest preseason ranking that Boise State has ever received.  Just last year, in a season in which many predicted an undefeated season for the Broncos, they were preseason ranked #14 before their home clash with Oregon.

Now Boise State finds itself in the unfamiliar position as one of the favorites to actually win that ever elusive National Title. 

The real question is whether they are worthy of such an early ranking and much bally-hooed respect?

I'll break this down into three parts:

• Why they can win the title
• Why they can't win the title
• Are they deserving to have the chance?

Why Boise State Can Win the 2010 National Title:

Unless you have been living under a rock over the past six months, you are well aware that Boise State is returning 20 or 21 (depending on what information you deem as correct) starters from last years 14-10 Fiesta Bowl champion team.

That alone should give credence to Boise's high ranking.  The fact that it finished 4th in the final polls also gives credence to the extremely high expectations entering the 2010 season.

Junior quarterback, and Heisman hopeful, Kellen Moore returns to lead a very potent Bronco attack.  Jeremy Avery is a sleek and nimble running back that fits extremely well into the Broncos' wide-open offensive game-plan and wide receivers Austin Pettis and Titus Young form a solid one-two punch to catch many of the deliveries from Moore.  With the entire unit returning from a team that averaged 42.2 points per game last year, one can surely expect some fireworks out of the Boise State offense this year.

Defense?

Often overlooked, the Boise State defense has been the real reason as to why the Broncos have crept up the rankings over the last five years.  Just last year, this unit only gave up eight and 10 points respectively to Oregon and TCU.  Those teams finished the season as the nation's #5 and #8 ranked scoring offenses when all was said and done.

Toss in the fact that the Broncos finished as the nation's #1 ranked scoring offense and #14 ranked scoring defense and you can see why they have received such a high preseason ranking.

Take away the name Boise State, and put Alabama, Florida, or Texas on the moniker, and you'd likely see a team ranked #1 in just about every preseason poll when you consider the number of starters returning from such a wildly successful 2009 team.

But......this IS Boise State, and that leads into the reasons as to....

Why Boise State Can't Win the National Title in 2010:

This one simply comes down to two games: Virginia Tech and Oregon State.  Never, in the history of Boise State football have they had to play two BCS preseason ranked teams in the regular season.

The Broncos first contest of the season is at a 'neutral site' against fellow top 10 preseason ranked opponent Virginia Tech.  This game will be played at FedEx field in Landover, MD.  A stadium that seats over 90,000 fans and will assuredly have well over 70,000 fans wearing Hokie colors loudly and proudly.

While Virginia Tech is only returning four starters on defense, I'm not sure that anybody is doubting Frank Beamer and defensive coordinator Bud Foster from being able to put together yet another strong stop unit in Blacksburg this year.  The Hokies do return, however, some of the most explosive offensive talent in all of college football including three-year starter Tyrod Taylor at Quarterback.

Joining Taylor is one of the most talented running back stables in all of college football including Ryan Williams, Darren Evans, and David Wilson.  Along with these great running backs are a very underrated wide receiver corps led by Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale.  In a less than pass happy offense, both of these guys caught at least 30 balls and covered a combined yardage total of over 1,400 yards.  Toss in three offnsive linemen returning, and the Hokies will assuredly average more than the credible 31.8 points per game that they put up just last year during a 10-3 season.

Next up would be Oregon State.  Led by one of the most underrated coaches in the entire nation (Mike Riley), the Beavers are returning 15 starters from a solid 8-5 2009 squad.  Amongst those starters returning are the electrifying talents of brothers Jacquizz and James Rodgers.  While Oregon State does have to replace its quarterback, it does have four starting offensive linemen. 

On defense, however, is where Boise may be able to exploit the Beavers as they did give up 25 points per game last year including 28 or more in five games, including 42 to USC and 37 to Oregon. 

Stephen Paea is a stud defensive tackle and could provide some problems for Boise, along with free safety Lance Mitchell and strong safety Lance Collins. 

With that said, the Beavers defense will be much better than anything they will face in the WAC, and the Rodger brothers will likely provide as solid a one-two offensive punch as anything that Boise will see all season.

And that leads into..........

Is Boise State Deserving of a National Title Shot in 2010:

Time for some facts.

In the entire history of Boise State's arrival in Division I-A (FBS) football it has played fourteen ranked opponents.  The Broncos are 7-7 in those contests including a recent 5-2 run since 2006 with wins over #10 Oklahoma (2007 Fiesta Bowl), #17 Oregon in 2008, #21 Fresno State in 2008, #16 Oregon in 2009, and #4 TCU in (2010 Fiesta Bowl).

Not a bad record at all.

Since 1996, Boise State has also played 20 BCS level schools. In those contests, it stands with a paltry 7-13 record, but does currently hold a five game winning streak against said schools.

While this all seems well and good from an outside perspective, we really need to put these numbers up against a fellow National Title BCS contender to put them into perspective.

In the last three years, the Florida Gators have played 13 ranked opponents and have amassed a sparkling 10-3 record in those contests. 

In the last three years, the Gators have played 33 BCS level teams and own a 27-6 record against those teams.  All told, the Gators, in three short years, have played 13 more BCS level teams and almost as many ranked opponents as Boise State has played in 15 years. And in those three years, the Gators have amassed a much better record than Boise State has.

Thus the question.  Is Boise State truly worthy of a National Title shot in 2010?

While Boise State has gotten a lot of mileage out of victories over Oklahoma, Oregon, and TCU over the past few years, they have still only defeated two teams that were ranked in the Top 10 over a four year stretch. And those are Boise's only wins over Top 10 teams in the entire history of their program. 

In Florida's 2008 National Title season, they defeated the following:  #4 (LSU), #8 (Georgia), #24 (South Carolina), #23 (Florida State), #1 (Alabama) and #2 (Oklahoma) on their way in truly earning a National Title.  They beat twice as many Top 10 teams in a single season as Boise State has done in the entire history of their program.

So, if Boise State does beat Virginia Tech and Oregon State, and then runs the table over the remainder of its games against opponents that BCS level schools schedule for filling, does it really deserve a shot at the title?

Interesting to say the least, and with Boise State's lofty early season ranking it has every chance to do so.  

Question is, are the Broncos deserving of that title shot if they are 12-0 come December?